Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan State Spartans Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 52 -108o / -112u | -2400 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 52 -108o / -112u | +1200 |
The Oregon Ducks enter this week 4-0 after a 34-13 victory over UCLA last week. They now sit at No. 6 in the AP Poll after last week's win, and they also have a victory over a talented Boise State team.
This week, the Ducks will play host to the Michigan State Spartans.
Michigan State is now 3-2 on the season and is coming off a 38-7 loss at home to Ohio State. The Spartans have had an up-and-down start to the Jonathan Smith era, sneaking by Florida Atlantic back in Week 1 by a score of 16-10 and since beating Maryland before losing to Boston College.
Oregon has much more talent on both sides of the field in this one, but Michigan State has proven capable of hanging in games against better opponents.
Run defenses for both teams will be the key, as Michigan State will look to establish the run and sustain long drives, while Oregon may not find success on the ground against the Spartan defense.
We will keep an eye on both units as we build our framework for this same-game parlay.
Let's dive into the Oregon vs. Michigan State odds and take a look at my same-game parlay for Friday, Oct. 4.
Oregon vs. Michigan State Picks, Parlay
- Kay’ron Lynch-Adams 40+ Rushing Yards (-125)
- Jack Velling 25+ Receiving Yards (-145)
- Tez Johnson 70+ Receiving Yards (-310)
- Traeshon Holden 40+ Receiving Yards (-220)
- Parlay Odds: +440 via DraftKings
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
SGP Pick #1: Kay'ron Lynch-Adams 40+ Rushing Yards
Smith intended to enter this season with a duo splitting carries at the running back spot, but Lynch-Adams has outperformed his backfield competition all season long.
The man they call KLA is averaging 5.3 yards per carry compared to Nate Carter’s 4.4, and Lynch-Adams has finally surpassed Carter in carries on the season (58-53).
We expect this to continue, as more and more of the carry share goes to the better back.
And Lynch-Adams will need a big workload in this one to keep Michigan State in the game. The Oregon defense has been stellar against opposing pass offenses but has been more vulnerable against the run.
On the year, the Oregon defense ranks just 26th in Rush Success Allowed compared to 12th in Pass Success Allowed.
Lynch-Adams got nine carries last week to Carter’s six, but Michigan State will be looking to run the ball more in this game, and KLA is the guy.
His lowest total on the season has been 35 yards against Ohio State (a game where MSU benched all starters by the end of the third quarter), and he eclipsed 40 or more in all of his other three games.
SGP Pick #2: Jack Velling 25+ Receiving Yards
The lone passing target who has been a constant this season for Aidan Chiles and Smith has been tight end Jack Velling.
The Spartans have dealt with mass injuries/sicknesses to their receiving room, but Velling has played all four games this season. He's tied for second on the team in catches with 13.
While Oregon has a stellar secondary, game script will likely still call for some throws. Expect the Spartans to utilize play action after establishing the run early and get Chiles throwing on the move.
When that happens, Velling is the most trusted target. He has hit 25-plus receiving yards in four straight games, and the week before last, he totaled six receptions for 77 yards against Boston College.
SGP Picks #3 & #4: Tez Johnson 70+ Receiving Yards & Traeshon Holden 40+ Receiving Yards
Now that we have our Spartan parlay participants covered, let’s focus on two Oregon receivers.
It’s no secret anymore — Oregon wants to throw the ball. Dillon Gabriel has thrown the ball 40 or more times in two of Oregon’s games and is coming off a game where he completed 31 passes for 278 yards and three touchdowns.
Defensively, Michigan State has been good against the run. The Spartans rank 18th in Rush Success Allowed on the season. However, the Spartans have been more vulnerable through the air, ranking 89th against the pass, which plays right into Oregon’s strengths.
Ohio State’s top two receivers combined for 12 catches and 179 yards against the Spartans last week before subbing out early in the second half.
Expect Oregon to do the same with its top two pass-catchers, Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden.
Johnson is coming off back-to-back games with 110 or more yards receiving. He's averaging 8.3 receptions per game and will be heavily involved as always.
Holden has emerged as a stellar second option for Gabriel. He has hit the 40-yard mark in three straight outings and should have plenty of opportunities to feast against the Spartan secondary.
