The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, Illinois. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. EDT on BTN.
Northwestern is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 47 points.
Here’s my Purdue vs. Northwestern prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.
Purdue vs Northwestern Prediction
- Purdue vs. Northwestern Pick: Purdue +3 or Better
My Northwestern vs. Purdue best bet is on the Boilermakers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Purdue vs Northwestern Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | -165 |
- Purdue vs Northwestern point spread: Northwestern -3 (-115), Purdue +3 (-105)
- Purdue vs Northwestern over/under: 47 (-110o / -110u)
- Purdue vs Northwestern moneyline: Purdue +140, Northwestern -165
Purdue vs Northwestern Pick
I believe we are getting some inflation in the market after Northwestern beat the corpse of Penn State in Happy Valley.
Meanwhile, Purdue has been extremely unlucky over the past two weeks in a pair of misleading final scores against Illinois and Minnesota.
Against the Illini, the Boilermakers had the significantly better Net Success Rate (something Ohio State can't say). Still, they just couldn't overcome a pair of critical fumbles and the loss of senior captain cornerback Tony Grimes, which led to countless communication issues and coverage busts on the backend.
Then, last week against the Gophers, Purdue finished with more than 200 total yards of offense but couldn't overcome a minus-three turnover margin that was capped off by a game-winning pick-six in the fourth quarter, which the Boilermakers entered with a touchdown lead.
Following four straight losses (three against ranked foes) that certainly weren't helped by a minus-nine turnover margin, it's time to buy Purdue against a Northwestern team coming off its biggest program win in quite some time, especially considering I have Purdue power rated as the superior team on the road against a team without significant home-field advantage.
From a matchup perspective, Northwestern wants to lean on its ground game, but that's where the Purdue defense has excelled.
It has only allowed 4.0 yards per attempt despite playing one of the nation's most demanding schedules, with matchups against some of the most dynamic backs in the country. The Boilermakers did a nice job containing UCS's Waymond Jordan, held Minnesota's Darius Taylor to 32 yards on 14 attempts, and held the Illini to under three yards per carry on 41 attempts.
So, don't be surprised if we see a few Preston Stone turnovers on known passing downs. Stone owns the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the country among 102 quarterbacks with at least 150 drop-backs, trailing only the now-benched Malachi Nelson at UTEP.
Meanwhile, Ryan Browne should continue his very nice season against an attackable Wildcat coverage unit, especially considering Purdue should have no issues getting its ground game going against a Northwestern run defense that has allowed five yards per carry (110th).
I basically project this game as a coin flip, so give me the road dog catching over a field goal in a good situational spot with some potential positive turnover regression on the horizon.
Pick: Purdue +3 or Better
