Sacramento State vs Fresno State Prediction, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Week 2
In one of the nightcaps for Saturday's slate, the Sacramento State Hornets will take on the Fresno State Bulldogs. In Week 1, both teams fell as underdogs but put a scare into their opponents.
Sacramento State jumped out to a 14-0 lead before falling 42-24 to San Jose State.
Fresno State was a three-touchdown underdog at Michigan, but it trailed the defending national champions 16-10 in the fourth quarter. Michigan ultimately pulled away, but the Bulldogs secured the cover.
The fight both teams showed was hardly a surprise, considering they have been two of California's best at their levels of late. Sacramento State is 39-14 since the start of the 2019 season and has reached the FCS playoffs in each of their last years.
Fresno State is 58-29 since the start of 2017 and was picked to finish third in the Mountain West this season.
Despite being 177 miles apart, these programs have met just four times, most recently a 34-20 Fresno State win in the 2019 season. The Bulldogs have taken all four meetings while outscoring the Hornets, 113-33, overall.
This time around, the Bulldogs are double-digit favorites for this matchup.
Below is my Sacramento State vs. Fresno State prediction.
Sacramento State vs Fresno State Pick, Prediction
- Sacramento State vs Fresno State Picks: Over 56.5
My Sacramento State vs Fresno State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Sacramento State vs Fresno State Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Sacramento State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -950 |
- Point Spread: Sacramento State +17 (-110) · Fresno State -17 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 56.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Sacramento State +625 · Fresno State -950
Sacramento State Football vs Fresno State Football Preview
Sacramento State Hornets Betting Preview: A Whole Lot of Continuity
Sacramento State returned continuity on offense with the return of its starting quarterback, three of its top four running backs and receivers and five offensive linemen, including FCS All-American Jackson Slater and All-Big Sky Nathan Mejia.
Quarterback Kaiden Bennett enjoyed a breakout 2023 season — throwing for 2,192 yards and completing 64% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions while adding 577 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
However, he was unable to get much going against San Jose State with just 134 passing yards and two interceptions.
Meanwhile, junior Elijah Tau-Tolliver relished his opportunity to be the lead back for the first time. He ran for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries.
The Hornets have rotated backs in recent years, but Tau-Tolliver appears headed for an All-Big Sky caliber season if his performance against FBS competition is any indication.
Jared Gipson led the Big Sky with 17.3 yards per reception last year en route to earning All-Big Sky second-team honors. He had four receptions for 40 yards last week with Anderson Grover leading the team with five receptions for 60 yards.
True freshman Devin Scudero made an immediate impact with 32 receiving yards and a touchdown as well.
Defensively, Sacramento State’s turnaround under Troy Taylor coincided with a defense that allowed 19.1 points per game in 2021.
Over the last few years, the unit has regressed as it allowed 27.2 points per game last year, which ranked 70th in the FCS. The trend continued in week one as Sacramento State allowed 42 points and San Jose State. It will be another long night for the defense against Fresno State.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Establishing the Run
In his first season at Fresno State, redshirt junior Mikey Keene completed 65.8% of his passes for 2,976, and threw for 24 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.
Though he did throw two interceptions, he did show well considering the opponent, throwing for 235 yards and completing 61% of his passes against Michigan.
He should find success against a Sacramento State secondary that allowed 324 passing yards last week.
Keene also lost 30 yards on three sacks, which contributed to the Bulldogs rushing for just nine yards last week.
However, expect the Bulldogs to establish running back Malik Sherrod this week. The diminutive senior rushed for 966 yards and nine touchdowns last season on the way to 1.462 all-purpose yards.
Fresno State will also showcase its top two receivers Jalen Moss and Mac Dalena while also bringing in Raylen Sharpe from Missouri State. Sharpe caught a touchdown last week while Moss had six receptions for 97 yards. He looks poised for a breakout year after catching 55 passes as a true freshman.
Defensively, Fresno State ranked 97th in rushing yards allowed per game last season. It showed signs of progress in week 1, holding Michigan to 148 yards rushing on 4.4 yards per carry.
Defensive end Devo Bridges, defensive tackle Gavriel Lightfoot, and linebacker Malachi Langley are leaders in the front seven. Fresno State also welcomed a pair of USC transfers in defensive end Korey Foreman and linebacker Tuasivi Nomura.
Foreman was also the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class and he will look to break out in the Mountain West this season.
Fresno State vs Sacramento State Pick & Prediction
The last meeting in this series had 54 points and Fresno State now has a better offense compared to five years ago.
Sacramento State allowed over 300 passing yards last week, and I would expect Keene to have similar success. Fresno State averaged 30.6 points per game last season and 40.3 in nonconference play.
Sacramento State has allowed at least 31 points in each of its last five games. However, it also scored 21 points in each of those games, as well as 30 against Stanford last season. It should contribute to the total in this game.
I like the opening line of 56.5, and I would be willing to play the over up to 64.5 points.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Play to 64.5)
How to Watch Fresno State vs Sacramento State: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Mountain West Network |
Fresno State vs Sacramento State Betting Trends
- In Sacramento State's first game of the season, the over hit.
- The Hornets are 0-1 ATS.
- In Fresno State's first game, the under hit.
- The Bulldogs are 1-0 ATS.
- Both teams suffered a loss in Week 1.
Sacramento State vs Fresno State Weather
