College Football Best Bets & Picks for Saturday's Noon Games
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
We're in for another stellar slate of college football in Week 8.
One week after we watched No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon and the Red River Rivalry between No. 1 Texas and then-No. 18 Oklahoma, we have a slate highlighted by No. 5 Georgia vs. top-ranked Texas and No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee on the Third Saturday of October.
While those games take place later in the day, it would be rude not to pay attention to a solid noon slate.
Our college football writers came through with six best bets for Saturday's early kickoffs, including picks for Nebraska vs. No. 16 Indiana in the Big Ten, Arizona State vs. Cincinnati in the Big 12 and East Carolina vs. No. 23 Army in the AAC.
Check out all six of our Saturday college football picks and noon best bets below — and be sure to take a look at our other top picks for Saturday's afternoon and evening kickoff windows.
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Nebraska vs. Indiana Best Bet & Pick
While it’s been fun to watch the Indiana renaissance under new head coach Curt Cignetti and its high-scoring offense, it’s time for the Hoosiers’ first reality check of the season.
Indiana is 6-0 for the first time since 1967, but it’s a hollow record. The Hoosiers have beaten FIU, Charlotte and Western Illinois in the non-con, and then they beat UCLA, Northwestern and Maryland in Big Ten play – three teams that have a combined 1-9 record in conference action.
Most average teams could navigate their way to a perfect start through that slate.
Nebraska, meanwhile, is an overtime away from a similar perfect start, only it’s had a slightly more challenging path to get there.
Dylan Raiola will be the Indiana defense’s biggest test of the season so far, while the Cornhuskers’ own defense will be a true litmus test for the Hoosiers’ offense.
The Hoosiers are second in the nation in scoring at 47.5 points per game, but the Nebraska pass rush and secondary are more than game to slow the Indiana attack, ranking 15th in Pass Success allowed and 12th in Havoc.
In all five of Nebraska’s wins, it’s held its opponents to 10 or fewer points, including a high-flying Colorado offense.
Star defensive back Tommi Hill is also a game-time decision for the Cornhuskers, which would be a huge boon for the secondary.
This will be the first time Indiana has been punched in the mouth this season, and it just hasn’t shown any proof of being able to handle that because of its weak schedule.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Cornhuskers win this outright to secure bowl eligibility for the first time since 2017, let alone hang within a touchdown.
Pick: Nebraska +6.5 (Play to +6)
UCLA vs. Rutgers Best Bet & Pick
The UCLA Bruins (1-5, 0-4) will make a cross-country trip to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-2, 1-2) at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey, on Saturday afternoon.
UCLA will look to pick up its first win as a member of the Big Ten, but I have my reservations about that and will be backing Rutgers this game.
The UCLA offense is basically nonexistent. Through six games this season, it has yet to breach 20 points in a game, putting up a season-high 17 points against LSU and Minnesota.
Problems for the UCLA offense are abundant but can be narrowed to a hopeless passing game and a run game that has been cursed with lethargy. This has resulted in the Bruins ranking 132 out of 134 in scoring offense with an average of just 14.5 points per game.
There's no relief in sight for the UCLA offense as it makes the long trip to face a stingy Rutgers defense that's giving up just 20.2 points per game.
The Greg Schiano-led Scarlet Knights should have no issue shutting down opposing quarterback Ethan Garbers and his 29th-ranked passing defense.
Meanwhile, you know what you're going to get with Rutgers on offense: a power running game.
Led by senior running back Kyle Monangai, who has quite literally put the team on his back this season, is averaging 123.2 yards per game with seven touchdowns season.
While Monangai will be the feature and should have a big afternoon, I do think this game will present a chance for Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis to gain some traction and try to counteract what has been a slow start. Kaliakmanis has struggled in recent weeks but will be facing a very porous UCLA secondary that's giving up 265.7 yards per game.
Rutgers is going to stick with its bread and butter here and play smash-mouth football.
Without the threat of a counterstrike, UCLA will be beholden to Rutgers' tempo and hasn’t shown any ability to do what it takes to win Big Ten football games. Back Rutgers as at -5.5 or better.
Pick: Rutgers -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
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Wisconsin vs. Northwestern Best Bet & Pick
Wisconsin will never be higher in the markets than now.
The consensus on the Badgers is that the team is “transformed” with new quarterback Braedyn Locke under center. They’ve won their past two games by 80 points, dropping over 500 yards of offense each week.
But some context is needed.
Wisconsin beat Purdue 52-6. That doesn’t mean anything. Purdue is a dumpster fire.
While Locke tossed for 360 yards and three touchdowns, he also threw two picks on two turnover-worthy plays, ending with a 58.8 PFF Passing grade.
Wisconsin beat Rutgers 42-6. However, the Scarlet Knights were missing two defensive captains (Tyreem Powell and Robert Longerbeam) and lost four more starters during the game. They were banged up and couldn’t compete with their second-stringers.
While Locke threw for 240 yards and a touchdown, the Badgers ran for 300 and five. The quarterback finished the game with 0.01 EPA per Dropback and zero explosive passing plays.
Context is important. I believe the Badgers' breakout was more about external than internal factors — i.e., two pathetic Big Ten opponents.
This is still the same team that struggled against Western Michigan and South Dakota. Locke is still the same quarterback who finished 13-for-26 passing for 180 yards against USC’s bottom-15 secondary (120th in Pass Success Rate allowed).
Wisconsin is due for a letdown game.
I also expect Wisconsin’s ground attack to regress against an uber-stout Northwestern front seven that ranks top-10 nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.
Locke will have to beat the Wildcats over the top in obvious passing situations, and I expect him to make mistakes – he has 13 turnover-worthy plays to seven big-time throws in his career.
Conversely, Northwestern is on the rise.
Switching to Jack Lausch at quarterback has unlocked an explosive element in the Wildcats' aerial attack. He generated four explosive passing plays against Indiana (12% rate) and four against Maryland (20% rate). He’s a gunslinger with a cannon for an arm who’s never afraid to rip the ball downfield.
Lausch completed 10 of 18 passes against the Terps for over 200 yards at 11.3 YPA with an obscene 14.3-yard aDOT in a 27-point win.
He’s in for a big day against Wisconsin, which ranks 118th nationally in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
While safety Hunter Wohler is playing well, the Badgers’ other three top coverage guys have struggled, combining to allow 30 receptions on 45 targets for 377 yards (66.7% completion, 8.4 yards per target).
Under head coach Luke Fickell, the Badgers are 2-6-1 ATS as a seven-point-or-more favorite. They’re overvalued after two flukey blowout wins, and they don’t match up well with the up-and-coming Lausch or Northwestern’s swarming rush defense.
Pick: Northwestern +7.5 (Play to +7)
Arizona State vs. Cincinnati Best Bet & Pick
This game opened with Cincinnati sitting as a 2.5 point favorite and has skyrocketed up with the news that Sun Devil QB Sam Leavitt will not be available.
I liked the Bearcats before that injury report, and like them even more now even if we have to lay a little bit bigger number.
Nebraska transfer Jeff Sims is next in line for ASU, and he has been a turnover machine throughout his career. Sims is a good athlete but when he has to drop back and throw the ball it is not pretty.
Additionally, this is a brutal situational spot for Arizona State, coming off an emotional upset win at home over Utah. The Sun Devils now have to fly across the country with a new quarterback for a noon kick at Nippert Stadium.
Cincinnati is quietly playing really good football and is literally only two plays away from being undefeated and atop the Big 12 standings. The two losses to Pittsburgh and Texas Tech were by a combined four points and those two teams are a combined 11-1 on the year.
Look for the Bearcats to punch ASU in the mouth early on in this one, and then continue to create separation as the game goes on. Give me the Bearcats to win and cover at home.
Pick: Cincinnati -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
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East Carolina vs. Army Best Bet & Pick
The story all season has been the explosion of Bryson Daily and this Army offense. But let’s not sleep on this Black Knights defense. Army has yet to allow more than 14 points in a game all season and has allowed over 300 total yards in a game just once — and that was 303 yards.
Texas is the only team in the country allowing fewer points per game than the Black Knights at just 9.8 points per game. They rank fifth in the country at preventing Explosiveness and just don't allow big plays at all.
East Carolina has had a lot of issues on offense, mainly with turnovers. Quarterback Jake Garcia was a walking interception, throwing threw 12 picks before getting benched for Michigan State transfer Katin Houser last week.
In his first start, Houser went just 11-for-28 (39%) for 84 yards and an interception.
That's a lot of what we saw last year at Michigan State when he was inaccurate with the football and managed just six touchdowns with five interceptions. I don’t think he's the answer to ECU's problems.
The Pirates can't run the ball either, sp I'm not sure how they're going to score on this Army defense.
But the one thing East Carolina is very good at is defending the run. The Pirates rank fifth in the country in Rush Success Rate Allowed and first in Stuff Rate. They're allowing just 3.47 yards per carry on the year.
I don't trust the Pirates to score much on this Black Knights defense, and as long as ECU doesn’t keep turning the ball over and giving Army short fields, it should be able to stop the run enough to slow this offense down and go under this total.
Pick: Under 51.5 (Play to 51)
Louisiana vs. Coastal Carolina Best Bet & Pick
The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been incredibly efficient this season.
It ranks 19th in EPA/Play with the focus coming on the ground. The running back trio of Bill Davis, Zylan Perry and Dre'lyn Washington has been great, as all three are averaging over six yards per carry.
Quarterback Ben Wooldridge has also been really efficient when asked to throw. He has Louisiana ranking sixth in Passing Success Rate and owns a PFF Passing Grade of 88.5.
However, giving him a clean pocket has been a bit of a problem. The Ragin' Cajuns sit 94th in terms of a PFF Pass-Blocking Grade.
When Wooldridge isn't pressured, though, he’s picked defenses apart, posting nine yards per attempt with an 83.3% adjusted completion percentage.
That's important because Coastal Carolina is outside the top 100 in Havoc and is 91st in terms of a PFF Pass-Rushing Grade.
On the other side, Coastal Carolina can break off a big play in an instant, especially in the passing game. The Chanticleers lead the nation in explosive passing because quarterback Ethan Vasko throws the deep ball so well.
He's averaging well over 10 yards per attempt this season and absolutely slings it on throws over 20 yards.
Why is that important? Well, Louisiana ranks 96th in explosive passing allowed and has one of the worst pass-rushing grades in college football.
That means Vasko will be given plenty of time to throw on Saturday.
Both of these teams are also in the bottom 30 of college football in terms of a PFF Tackling Grade, so missed tackles will lead to a lot of big plays and plenty of points.
I have 61.9 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 56.5 points.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Play to 58)
