The SMU Mustangs (6-1) head to Durham, North Carolina, this Saturday night to take on the Duke Blue Devils (6-1). Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network from Wallace Wade Stadium.
The Mustangs have adjusted well as new members of the ACC (3-0 conference record), but they'll face a test from Duke, which is 2-1 in ACC play.
Despite similar records, SMU is favored by 11.5 points on the road in this matchup against Manny Diaz’s squad. The over/under is set at 48.5 points.
Let’s take a look at my SMU vs. Duke predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
SMU at Duke Odds, Spread, Lines
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 / -110 | -400 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 / -110 | +310 |
- SMU vs Duke Spread: SMU -10.5
- SMU vs Duke Over/Under: 48.5
- SMU vs Duke Moneyline: SMU –400 · Duke +310
SMU at Duke Predictions, Picks
- SMU vs Duke Pick: Under 49
Prediction
My SMU vs Duke best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
I don't see value on the moneyline for either team.
Against the Spread
I'm going to pass on betting the spread in this game and will focus on the over/under instead.
Over/Under
My top bet for this game is on the total, as I think both defenses will step up.
SMU vs Duke NCAAF Week 9 Preview
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
SMU is playing in its first season in the ACC and may already be heading towards a conference championship game appearance. It's 6-1 on the year and undefeated in league play, with most of the other conference contenders absent from its upcoming schedule.
The Mustangs had a bit of a slow start to the season and a close loss to BYU. However, once they made the move to Kevin Jennings at quarterback, this offense has performed better. Jennings is averaging 0.19 EPA per drop back compared to 0.03 EPA per drop back for Preston Stone.
On the whole, the Mustangs are 57th in Pass Success Rate and 34th in EPA Per Pass his season.
They rank 51st in Success Rate and 53rd in EPA per play this season. They've primarily been a rushing offense, ranking 15th in rush plays per game, 44th in Rush Success Rate and 72nd in EPA Per Rush.
SMU’s defense has been the main strength of its team. The Mustangs rank sixth in Success Rate allowed and eighth in EPA per play allowed this year. They've been best at defending the run, where they're 10th in Rush Success Rate allowed and second in EPA Per Rush allowed.
The Mustangs also rank second in PFF’s Run Defense grades this season.
The pass defense hasn’t been quite as strong but is still respectable, ranking 23rd in Pass Success Rate allowed and 56th in EPA Per Pass allowed.
A major reason for this success against the pass is their pass rush, which ranks 21st in PFF’s Pass Rushing grades.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
Duke may be 6-1 on the year, but it isn’t because of its offense. Duke’s offense ranks 124th in Success Rate and 120th in EPA per play this season.
The Blue Devils have been better through the air, as they're 90th in Pass Success Rate compared to 129th in Rush Success Rate.
Quarterback Maalik Murphy transferred to Durham from Texas this year but hasn’t been quite what was expected. Murphy is averaging -0.07 EPA per drop back on the year and has a 40% success rate while adding nothing in the run game.
Defensively, Manny Diaz’s team is up there with the best of them, ranking fifth in Success Rate allowed and EPA per play allowed. The Blue Devils are seventh in Pass Success Rate allowed and sixth in EPA per pass allowed this season.
However, they haven't been as great against the run, which is where SMU would like to focus its offensive attack. The Blue Devils rank 31st in Rush Success Rate allowed and eighth in EPA per rush allowed.
They're also 64th in PFF Run Defense Grade and 82nd in PFF Tackling Grade this season.
Duke vs SMU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and SMU match up statistically:
SMU Offense vs. Duke Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 7 | |
| Quality Drives | 33 | 13 | |
Duke Offense vs. SMU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 126 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 86 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 100 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 126 | 17 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 69 | 81 |
| PFF Coverage | 50 | 11 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 57 | 60 |
| Middle 8 | 25 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (34) | 24.7 (22) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (25) | 49% (91) |
How to Bet My SMU vs Duke Pick
I think SMU is the better team in this game, but 12 points may be too much to lay with two great defenses on the field.
The defense is the best unit for both of these teams, and with how bad Duke’s offense is, I don’t know that it'll be able to score much at all.
My favorite way to play this game would be on the under, as I believe 48 points is much too high for a game between two of the better defenses in the ACC. I would play this down to 45.5.
Pick: Under 48 (-110, bet365) | Play to 45.5 (-110)
SMU vs Duke Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
SMU will take on Duke in Durham, NC, on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
SMU vs Duke Betting Trends
- 81% of the bets and 89% of the money is on SMU to cover the spread against Duke.
- 96% of the bets are on the over to hit in this ACC clash.
SMU vs Duke Weather
