The South Alabama Jaguars (2-3, 1-0 Sun Belt) travel this week to Jonesboro, AR to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2, 0-0) on Saturday, Oct. 5. The game kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN+.
South Alabama enters this matchup as a short 2.5-point road favorite in the contest, while the over/under comes in at 61.5.
So, where does the betting value lie?
Let's dive into my South Alabama vs. Arkansas State predictions and college football picks for this Sun Belt showdown on Saturday, Oct. 5.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Odds, Lines, Pick
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 60.5 -112 / -108 | -135 |
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 60.5 -112 / -108 | +114 |
- South Alabama vs Arkansas State spread: South Alabama -3
- South Alabama vs Arkansas State over/under: 61 points
- South Alabama vs Arkansas State moneyline: South Alabama -150
- South Alabama vs. Arkansas State pick: South Alabama -2.5
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Preview
South Alabama Football
South Alabama comes into this one after suffering a defeat last week on the road at LSU, 42-10. The Jaguar defense was no match for LSU, as the Tigers racked up 667 yards of total offense and averaged 8.8 yards per carry.
The South Alabama offense also struggled to finish drives with points even though it moved the ball a bit against the LSU defense. After scoring 135 points combined in its previous two games, South Alabama was limited to just 10 in its last contest.
The Jaguars poured it on Northwestern State and Appalachian State the previous two weeks before heading to LSU.
While South Alabama didn't have a good showing against the Tigers, it still moved it for 333 yards offensively. The Jaguars were stopped twice on promising drives that ended inside LSU's 35-yard line.
Defensively, Arkansas State will not nearly provide the same challenges as the LSU stop unit in this one.
Arkansas State Football
Arkansas State comes in off of a bye week after being defeated by Iowa State the previous week. This was the first game Arkansas State was non-competitive in after starting the year with two wins followed by a close loss at Michigan in Week 3.
The Red Wolves allowed a season-high 490 yards to the Cyclones and couldn't provide any resistance on first and second down.
Offensively, the Arkansas State run game continues to be a problem, as it has racked up 122 combined rush yards on 60 attempts in the last two games.
Arkansas State has started slowly three weeks in a row, digging itself into large holes that have been hard to climb out of.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas State and South Alabama match up statistically:
South Alabama Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 129 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 120 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 97 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 133 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 106 | |
Arkansas State Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 107 |  |
| Quality Drives | 83 | 86 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 130 | 126 |
| PFF Coverage | 102 | 122 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 87 | 101 |
| Middle 8 | 41 | 122 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (93) | 24.2 (16) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (69) | 50% (92) |
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Prediction
I'm going to lay it here with South Alabama at -2.5.
To start, Arkansas State ranks outside the top 100 in Defensive Havoc. If opponents can't get pressure and force negative plays against this South Alabama offense and they allow Gio Lopez time to make plays, he will make them pay.
South Alabama has significant advantages in EPA per Play, as Arkansas State ranks just 118th nationally in that area defensively.
Additionally, Arkansas State can't stop the run or contain rush explosiveness, which South Alabama should take advantage of. The Jaguars are seventh nationally in EPA per Rush and 14th in Rushing Success Rate going up against a Red Wolves defense that allows 234 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.
Arkansas State does have a capable quarterback in Jaylen Raynor, but his performance this season has been up and down. He's completing just 54% of his passes while averaging just 195 passing yards per game with three touchdowns and five interceptions.
A concern for Arkansas State is that it can't run the football effectively. The Red Wolves rank just 118th nationally in EPA per Rush and 109th in Rushing Success Rate.
South Alabama has been effective in stopping the run this season, ranking in the top 50 nationally in Defensive EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
The Red Wolves are averaging 2.8 yards per carry this season, and with the inconsistent quarterback play, this team sees itself in third down much too frequently. It's not sustainable to convert on third-and-medium or longer when a team can't protect the quarterback or run the ball.
Well, Arkansas State ranks 106th in Havoc Allowed and has allowed nine sacks this season.
I'll back the team with the better quarterback and better run game to go on the road and pick up a win and cover.
Pick: South Alabama -2.5
How to Watch South Alabama vs Arkansas State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AK |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Betting Trends
- South Alabama has landed 83% of the tickets and 86% of the money.
- The over has generated 21% of the bets and 26% of the cash.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Weather
