We have an SEC vs. Sun Belt standoff on Saturday night, when the South Alabama Jaguars head to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
South Alabama started the season 0-2, but has since had two explosive weeks — first dropping 87 points against Northwestern State in Week 3 before beating Appalachian State, 48-14.
LSU is hobbling into this duel, facing devastating injuries to many of its key players. The Tigers were in a close battle with UCLA in Week 3 and ultimately came out with a lucky win against South Carolina. LSU, given its past performances, is lucky to be 3-1, but alas, we move on.
The Tigers are -22 on the spread and -1600 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the total for this matchup comes in at 65.
So, where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Read further for my South Alabama vs. LSU prediction and my college football picks.
South Alabama vs LSU Odds, Prediction
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -108 | 64 -110o / -110u | +800 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -112 | 64 -110o / -110u | -1350 |
- South Alabama vs LSU spread: LSU -20.5
- South Alabama vs LSU over/under: 64 points
- South Alabama vs LSU moneyline: LSU -1350
- South Alabama vs LSU pick: South Alabama +20.5
My LSU vs South Alabama best bet is on Jaguars spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs LSU Betting Preview
Offense, explosiveness and pounding the rock. That’s what you’re going to get out of the South Alabama Jaguars. Just look at what this program did against Northwestern State when it dropped 87 points two weeks ago.
In standard down metrics, the Jags have the eighth-most-efficient offense in the FBS, are fourth in PPA and 12th in Havoc allowed.
Redshirt freshman Gio Lopez runs the show for this offense and, for a first-time starter, hasn’t been too bad. He’s helped South Alabama to the 26th-best success rate on passing plays and a ranking of 33rd in PPA in passing down metrics.
What’s been even more impressive is that in three games, Lopez has yet to throw an interception. Along with his 62% completion rate, he’s also capable of running the ball at a high level. He averages 8.1 yards per carry and is usually a goal-line threat.
Lopez’s ability to run doesn’t deter the Jags’ run game. As a matter of fact, they run the ball a lot with Fluff Bothwell and Kentrel Bullock. Bothwell, aside from his incredible name, has made a massive impact on this run game, averaging nearly 10 yards per carry.
If that wasn’t enough, South Alabama is also 14th in rushing success rate and 20th in explosiveness.
I think the Jaguars are getting better on the defensive end. The only black eye that they put up was in Week 1, letting North Texas score 52 points, but after that, things seem to be better.
Since after Week 1, they’ve averaged 17 points allowed and 51 points scored. The 51 is greatly skewed with the 87-point game, but scoring 48 against Appalachian State the following week isn’t too shabby.
We’re four games into the Garrett Nussmeier era, and it hasn’t disappointed. Nussmeier looks the part, completing 70.6% of his passes with 13 passing touchdowns and just two interceptions.
His problem is that he plays for Brian Kelly, who I’ve forever disliked as a coach.
There’s no doubt that there’s an infinite amount of talent in Baton Rouge, but any team coached by Kelly is going to cap its potential.
Factor in the aforementioned injuries — especially on the defensive end — and a defense that was already struggling is in an even tougher spot.
The hope is for Nussmeier and his arm to keep the Tigers alive. He’s formed a great connection with both Aaron Anderson and Kyren Lacy, while Mason Taylor and CJ Daniels have been solid options, as well.
With that, LSU has achieved an elite eighth-ranked passing play success rate and also ranks 18th in passing down success rate. The one issue is the lack of explosive plays, as LSU gets most of its offense by grinding down opponents.
It seemed like the Tigers were destined for great things running the ball. John Emery Jr., after an up-and-down career, finally got his chance to shine, running for 61 yards in Week 1 before ultimately tearing his ACL.
Now LSU has to rely on Josh Williams and Caden Durham, who don’t possess the type of explosiveness that Emery did. It’s something to keep an eye on.
Maybe both improve as the season wears on, but I’m bearish on this run game, which is ranked 118th in success rate.
South Alabama vs LSU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and LSU match up statistically:
South Alabama Offense vs. LSU Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 23 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 96 | |
LSU Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 102 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 73 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 90 | |
| Quality Drives | 28 | 68 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 96 | 33 |
| PFF Coverage | 92 | 98 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 105 | 70 |
| Middle 8 | 36 | 63 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (87) | 28.9 (98) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (67) | 40% (126) |
South Alabama vs LSU Prediction
This spread opened at -22. Am I crazy for taking South Alabama to cover?
With how well-developed the Jags’ offense is, their improved defense and how decimated LSU is, I don’t think it’s out of the question.
I think LSU will pull out the win due to its overall talent, but I think South Alabama is a much better team than given credit for.
This seems like a perfect storm, and taking the Jags to cover doesn’t seem as far-fetched as most may think.
Pick: South Alabama +20.5
How to Watch South Alabama vs LSU Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Tiger Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
LSU vs South Alabama Betting Trends
- 85% of bets and 85% of the money is targeted for the Tigers to cover.
- 76% of bets and 85% of the money is aimed at the under.
LSU vs South Alabama Weather
