South Carolina vs Oklahoma Predictions and Picks: Sooners Have Advantage

South Carolina vs Oklahoma Predictions and Picks: Sooners Have Advantage article feature image
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This article contains predictions for an old game.

The South Carolina Gamecocks (3-3, 1-3 SEC) head to Norman on Saturday to take on the Oklahoma Sooners (4-2, 1-2) in an SEC showdown. The game is set to kick off at 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

The SEC continues to pump out the most exhilarating games of each weekend, as South Carolina nearly upset Alabama in Week 7.

An upset victory over Kentucky in Week 2 was promising, but three consecutive conference losses have South Carolina in desperation mode with Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson waiting in the second half of the schedule.

Oklahoma has yet to field a team at full health since an opening win over Temple. The Sooners enter Week 8 with only 2 losses on the schedule, as the defense has been the driving force behind 4 victories.

For Oklahoma to get back in the SEC race, injuries must be relieved on the offensive side of the ball.

Oklahoma will play host at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, where oddsmakers have installed the Gamecocks as a -1 favorite with a total of 41.5.

So, where does the betting value lie for this conference clash? Let's break down my South Carolina vs Oklahoma predictions and college football picks for NCAAF Week 8


South Carolina vs Oklahoma Odds, Spread

South Carolina Logo
Saturday, Oct. 19
12:45 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Oklahoma Logo
South Carolina Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1
-112
41
-108 / -112
-118
Oklahoma Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1
-108
41
-108 / -112
-102
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
DraftKings Logo
  • South Carolina vs Oklahoma spread: South Carolina -1
  • South Carolina vs Oklahoma over/under: 41 points
  • South Carolina vs Oklahoma moneyline: South Carolina -118
  • South Carolina vs Oklahoma pick: Oklahoma -1.5

My Oklahoma vs South Carolina best bet is on the Sooners spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.


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South Carolina vs Oklahoma Betting Preview

Beamer will return to Norman after serving as Oklahoma's tight ends coach and assistant head coach from 2018-20.

Dating back to the coach's time as an assistant at South Carolina, Beamer is familiar with Venables' defenses due to rivalry games against Clemson.

There's a case to be made that the Gamecocks have been a better defense than the Sooners thus far, ranking as a top-15 Havoc team in the nation. Only LSU has forced more fumbles, while 44 tackles for loss places South Carolina in the top 15 of all FBS defenses.

The struggles for the Gamecocks have come on the offensive side of the ball for coordinator Dowell Loggains.

Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has commanded an RPO offense that rushes with inside zone read concepts on 64% of snaps.

South Carolina ranks outside the 80 in rushing analytics, but a near-dead-last number in offensive momentum killer — a measurement of an offense's ability to create a methodical drive — keeps the Gamecocks' scoring chances low. Interceptions, fumbles, missed field goals, sacks, turnover on downs and 10-plus yard penalties all play a part in the ranking.

No offense has allowed more sacks than South Carolina at 26, while eight fumbles on the season is one of the sixth-worst numbers in FBS.

With a Havoc-Allowed rank of 131st, South Carolina has yet to play a game without crucial mistakes on offensive possessions.

The good news for Sellers is his ability to hit the explosive pass, as the Gamecocks rank top-20 in Passing EPA.


Offensive injuries have dogged the Sooners all season, specifically at wide receiver position.

Quarterback Jackson Arnold began the season as the starting signal-caller behind an offensive line that fielded five new starters. With plans to redshirt Arnold for the remainder of the season, the offense is completely in the hands of freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.

The results have been subpar thus far, as Hawkins has struggled to move the chains through the air and on the ground.

Is that John Elway? No, it’s Michael Hawkins Jr. with the scramble, leap and twist midair!

pic.twitter.com/Dt6FWOC0B2

— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) September 28, 2024

Along with running back Jovantae Barnes, Hawkins has had minimal success running inside zone behind a Sooners offensive line that's 120th in Line Yards.

Barnes has created no separation in 71 attempts, averaging just 2.8 yards after first contact.

Oklahoma ranks 133rd in creating explosive plays, a product of numerous injuries on the outside. Wide receiver Deion Burks will look to "defy the odds" in a return this week, along with Jalil Farooq. Both would be explosive elements missing from the Sooners offense.

On the other side, the nickel defense has been the backbone of the team through the first half, generating high marks against opposing rush attempts and a top-20 rank in pass-rush productivity.

Linebacker Danny Stutsman continues to lead the defense in tackles, while edge rushers R Mason Thomas and Ethan Downs have supplied 28 pressures.

Safeties Robert Spears-Jennings and Billy Bowman Jr. have also been elite in stopping second-level rushers from creating explosives, combining for 22 stops, per PFF.


South Carolina vs Oklahoma Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Carolina and Oklahoma match up statistically:

South Carolina Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success8710
Line Yards8332
Pass Success11080
Havoc13127
Finishing Drives9539
Quality Drives11119
Oklahoma Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success12588
Line Yards12071
Pass Success1217
Havoc11413
Finishing Drives9277
Quality Drives12544
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling8668
PFF Coverage961
Special Teams SP+5021
Middle 8106119
Seconds per Play27.5 (67)25.9 (40)
Rush Rate64% (22)56% (67)

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South Carolina vs Oklahoma Prediction

The Oklahoma roster is well aware of the disappointment surrounding the team through the first half of the season. They held a players-only meeting on Sunday to get the roster on the same page.

The bigger question is whether or not the Sooners defense can shut down the RPO attack from Sellers and the Gamecocks offense.

Oklahoma has performed above the national average against inside zone, logging a successful play on 55% of opponent attempts.

The South Carolina defense has not been as fortunate in defending inside zone, generating a 51% Success Rate with a higher EPA rate than the Oklahoma defense.

The Sooners have also been elite in playing behind the line of scrimmage, preserving a top-15 rank in tackles for loss while matching South Carolina's total of nine forced fumbles.

Oklahoma's edge in defending inside zone will be the difference in a game without many points.

The Action Network projection for this game is Oklahoma at a touchdown if all wide receiver options are healthye. Monitor the status of Burks and Farooq, as each could add an element to the offense that hasn't been available to Hawkins in weeks.

Pick: Oklahoma -3 or Better


South Carolina vs Oklahoma Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch

Location:Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Date:Saturday, Oct. 19
Kickoff Time:12:45 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming:SEC Network


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About the Author
Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.

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