The South Dakota State Jackrabbits (5-1) travel to Fargo, ND, to take on the North Dakota State Bison (6-1) in the 21st annual “Dakota Marker” rivalry game. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 19 and can be seen live on ESPN2.
This massive FCS game will certainly have playoff-seeding implications and could very well determine who will win the Missouri Valley Football Conference this season.
The Jacks have owned the series of late, winning the last four Dakota Marker games. While there's no line on this game as of writing, South Dakota State is projected as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under projected at 53.5.
Let's dive into my South Dakota State vs North Dakota State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
South Dakota State vs North Dakota State Picks, Prediction
- South Dakota State vs North Dakota State Pick: Under 51.5 (-110)
My South Dakota State vs North Dakota State best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
South Dakota State vs North Dakota State Odds, Spread, Lines
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
- South Dakota State vs North Dakota State Point Spread: South Dakota State -1.5 (-110) · North Dakota State +1.5 (-110)
- South Dakota State vs North Dakota State Total: Over/Under 51.5
- South Dakota State vs North Dakota State Moneyline: South Dakota State -120 · North Dakota State +100
South Dakota State Football vs North Dakota State Football Preview
South Dakota State Jackrabbits Betting Preview: Getting First Taste of Competition
South Dakota State comes in winners of five straight contests, and every one of those games has seen a margin of no less than 21 points.
Quarterback Mark Gronowski has been very efficient, completing 60% of his passes with five touchdowns over the last three weeks while sitting a good portion of the second half.
The run game has been exceptional for the Jacks, as the offensive line has dominated the last several opponents in the trenches.
Last week against Youngstown State, South Dakota State ran for 404 yards and averaged 16 yards per carry in the contest. The defense has been playing top-five FCS football as well, allowing just 19 points combined over their last four games.
The competition has not been overly stout, but the Jacks have taken care of business, and the next two weeks will be very telling as to where they will be seeded in the FCS playoffs.
North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview: Can Bison Continue to Roll?
North Dakota State has also been on a roll this season, finding the win column in six straight games against FCS competition. The Bison are sitting at 3-0 in conference play, with their most recent victory coming on the road at Southern Illinois.
The NDSU defense has been locked in during conference play, allowing just 10 points per game and 219 yards per game in conference play.
Quarterback Cam Miller was excellent last week, as he has been all season, but he has sustained an ankle injury that has significantly limited his mobility.
This game will be exceedingly important for the Bison, as the roster is littered with senior players who have never won in this rivalry. I would expect the Bison to play their best here.
How To Make College Football Picks For My South Dakota State vs North Dakota State Prediction
I'm going to take the under in this matchup if released at 52.5 or higher. Both of these defenses have been playing lights-out since hitting conference play.
South Dakota State leads FCS in Rushing Success Rate and is averaging 7.3 yards per carry on the season. It has run the ball more this year (62% of offensive snaps), somewhat the result of salting games away in the second half.
SDSU has an exceptional wide receiver talent in sophomore Griffin Wilde, who can make all of the catches and stretch the field vertically.
There has been some concern in the SDSU camp that new offensive coordinator Ryan Olson has been underusing the receivers and the passing game in general. While there will be a time and place to figure out the passing game and change it up, now is not the week to change your offensive identity.
The Jacks have also had some offensive linemen out and have had to rotate in some of the second-tier players. This lack of continuity could create problems in pass protection here.
NDSU has by far the strongest FCS run defense that the Jacks will have seen up to this point. The Bison are holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per carry but will be without their best defensive lineman, Dylan Hendricks, who's out with an injury.
While the explosive rushes likely will not be as prevalent, I would expect SDSU to rely heavily on the ground game in this hostile environment while going up against the strongest pass rush in FCS. The Bison forced quarterback pressure on 53% of dropbacks this season.
Also, the Fargodome is notoriously loud and the home crowd can make communication difficult.
North Dakota State has been really efficient on offense, but Cam Miller has not looked like himself since experiencing the ankle injury, limiting his mobility and escapability. While he has completed 76% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions, the SDSU secondary should provide a stronger challenge than recent opponents.
The Jacks are also hoping to get All-American Safety Tucker Large back from injury this week, although he may not participate as a return specialist.
The Bison have been extremely efficient in the red zone this season, scoring touchdowns on 72% of drives inside the 20-yard line. SDSU on defense will likely make it more difficult as they are also exceptional in red zone defense, yielding touchdowns on just 36% of defensive trips.
I can see these two teams feeling each other out early in the contest and leaning on the run game a lot. These are two of the top defenses in the FCS, and I see negative plays and stalled drives much more frequently than what prior opponents have forced.
Hit the under here when the lines get released.
Pick: Under 51.5 (-110, FanDuel)
North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Fargodome, Fargo, ND |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
