The Tennessee Volunteers (5-1, 2-1 SEC) host the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1, 2-1) in a top-15 college football clash on Saturday, Oct. 19.
This will be one of the more important SEC games of the season, and oddsmakers have installed Alabama as a -3 favorite with the over/under set at 57.5.
The game is set to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
So, where does the betting value lie for this high-profile SEC clash? Let's take a look at our staff's Tennessee vs. Alabama picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Tennessee vs. Alabama Prediction and Best Bets
By Pete Ruden
The Third Saturday in October. Year in and year out, this specific 24-hour period on the calendar marks one of the biggest days of the college football season.
The main reason for that, of course, is the battle between the Tennessee Volunteers (5-1, 2-1 SEC) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1, 2-1).
Even though a rivalry rages on, these teams have been awfully similar thus far. Both started the season hot, both suffered a loss to an unranked team in Week 6, and both followed that up by surviving a scare from another unranked team in Week 7.
That has all led to this long-awaited top-15 clash.
These units are led by Nico Iamaleava on the Tennessee side and Jalen Milroe on the Alabama side — two signal-callers who entered the season hoping they'd receive an invitation to New York in December for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
However, Iamaleava hasn't surpassed 200 yards passing since a Sept. 9 game against NC State, while Milroe has as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (4) over his last three games.
Yet, both sides come into the game at 5-1 with only a single loss in conference play. With only one SEC team sitting at a perfect 6-0, the door is still wide open for a College Football Playoff spot and an appearance in the SEC Championship.
Alabama enters this SEC showdown as a -3 road favorite with the over/under set at 56.5. So, where does the betting value lie? We polled 14 of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and over/under.
Let's take a look at their thoughts as we dish out Tennessee vs. Alabama picks and predictions for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Against the Spread
Our Spread Pick: Alabama -3
After losing outright to Vanderbilt as a 22.5-point favorite two weeks ago and getting pushed to the limit as a -19.5 favorite against South Carolina last week, Alabama avoided the disaster of a two-game losing streak.
However, our staff of experts is not fazed and recommends getting back in the saddle with the Crimson Tide.
Why are we so confident in Alabama? After a tough two-week stretch, we strongly believe that it's simply the better team and has a favorable situational matchup against a Tennessee team that has struggled in recent weeks.
Even with a difficult road matchup, the Crimson Tide are poised to outperform on both sides of the ball in front of 100,000 plus fans on the road.
While Alabama has had a tough couple of weeks, Tennessee hasn’t lived up to its preseason hype either.
Much like how the SEC schedule hasn’t been kind to Alabama, it has been equally treacherous for Tennessee, which has failed to score more than 25 points in conference play.
Tennessee freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has struggled, as his inconsistency and decision-making have plagued a once-promising offense.
This has been reflected in how Tennessee has been approaching games. The Volunteers have essentially put the training wheels up around Iamaleava, who ranks 83rd in the nation in passing attempts.
With Iamaleava’s wings clipped, the Vols will be forced to win this game in the trenches, but that will be a tall order against the Crimson Tide's front seven.
Tennessee will keep the game competitive with a strong run game, but it simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Jalen Milroe-led Alabama offense.
Milroe, a Heisman hopeful, leads the 10th-ranked Crimson Tide offense that's scoring 41.7 points per game. Despite the loss and close call, Alabama hasn’t seen a drop in offensive productivity in recent weeks and should have no problem outpacing the flailing Tennessee offense.
In addition to our staff leaning toward laying the points, our Action Network PRO Report has picked up sharp bettors getting in on the action as well.
Without a clear offensive catalyst, we see this game as an uphill battle for Tennessee and recommend betting the Tide at -4 or better.
Over/Under
Over 56.5 | 9 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 56.5 | 3 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 56.5
Our staff leans toward the over in what should be a heck of a game in Knoxville on Saturday night.
If this matchup is anything like the last one played at Tennessee in 2022, the over will hit with ease.
Bryce Young and Hendon Hooker aren’t walking through that door, but Jalen Milroe continues to play at an elite level and we all know about the arm talent of Nico Iamaleava.
I believe the Tennessee offense is the key to whether or not this total goes over. Alabama is too talented not to score its fair share of points — even against a very solid Volunteer defense.
It sounds weird to say, but facing the Alabama defense may present a get-right situation for Nico and Co.
The Crimson Tide defense has proven to be very vulnerable throughout SEC play, both on the ground and through the air.
Iamaleava needs to find some confidence early and get the ball out on time. Doing that will allow the Vols to also get the run game going and put points on the board.
I expect to see a back-and-forth affair, and both teams have the weapons to generate explosive plays down the field, which is always huge when betting an over.
As long as this total stays south of 60, we believe two teams that both really need this game will find a way to put enough points on the board to send it over.
Other Ways to Bet Tennessee vs. Alabama
Tennessee 1H +2.5 (Play to +2)
I think we're going to see an absolutely raucous environment in Knoxville for this one, and I expect the Vols to punch Alabama in the mouth early on.
Nico Iamaleava has been under a ton of scrutiny recently for some pedestrian performances, but the sophomore has been at his best on the biggest stages.
He has more than enough talent to carve up an Alabama defense that has been a bit of a sieve ever since the second half of the Georgia game.
Meanwhile, Tennessee possesses arguably the most physical front four Jalen Milroe and company have seen all year, which will likely take some time to adjust to early on in this game.
While I do think the Vols have a very solid chance of winning this game outright, those two factors are why I support a first-half wager in this one.
Expect a fired-up Rocky Top crowd that will give the Vols offense confidence and force Bama into some difficult situations early on in the game.
Go Big Orange.
Jalen Milroe Over 227.5 Passing Yards (Play to 234.5)
By Cody Goggin
Tennessee’s defense has been strong overall as a unit this year, ranking 10th in Success Rate allowed, fourth in Explosiveness allowed, and 2nd in Defensive Finishing Drives.
However, much of this production comes from its rushing defense, which ranks third nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The way to attack this Volunteers team is through the air, and I think Alabama knows this. For what it's worth, Tennessee ranks 70th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 30th in Pass PPA allowed this season.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has two games with at least 300 yards passing this season against Georgia and Vanderbilt — two games in which he needed to pass for Alabama to keep up.
I don’t know that the game script will go the same way in this game, but Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer is aware that it's possible to pass on this Tennessee defense. I expect him to take advantage of this and get Milroe going early.
Milroe saw 18 rushing attempts against South Carolina last weekend. I don’t think they want to continue giving him this large of a workload on the ground, so they may look to get him more work through the air in the quick-passing game.
Alabama’s offensive line ranks 26th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades this season. It should be a good enough unit to hold up against Tennessee’s vaunted defensive line, giving Milroe plenty of time to make something happen.
The Crimson Tide receivers also rank 12th in PFF’s Receiving grades compared to Tennessee’s ranking of 35th in PFF Coverage grade, so Alabama should have an advantage here as well.
The Tide sit just 70th in PFF’s Run Blocking grades, while Tennessee comes in at seventh in PFF Run Defense grade and third in Rush Success Rate allowed. I think the Vols will stop this Alabama rushing attack on early downs and force Milroe to make plays through the air in order to convert on third-and-long.
At just 227.5 yards I like looking toward Milroe’s passing overs here.
I think DeBoer will want to attack this Tennessee secondary and put the game on Milroe’s arm — especially against a tough Volunteers run defense.
Tennessee vs. Alabama Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
- Tennessee vs. Alabama Spread: Tennessee +3 · Alabama -3
- Tennessee vs. Alabama Over/Under: 57.5 Points
- Tennessee vs. Alabama Moneyline: Tennessee +135 · Alabama -160
