Tennessee looks to remain perfect when it travels to Fayetteville on Saturday to play Arkansas.
Tennessee had a bye last week. The Vols are living up to the hype, beating Oklahoma in Norman two weeks ago to move up to the No. 4 spot in the recent AP Poll. However, the schedule only gets more challenging.
Arkansas lost last Saturday to Texas A&M, moving to 3-2. The Razorbacks look much better this season behind quarterback Taylen Green and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. Sam Pittman is on the hot seat, but an upset win at home would do wonders for his program.
Read on for our Tennessee vs Arkansas predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Tennessee vs Arkansas Odds, Pick
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
- Tennessee vs Arkansas spread: Tennessee -14
- Tennessee vs Arkansas over/under: 56.5 points
- Tennessee vs Arkansas ML: Tennessee -550
- Tennessee vs Arkansas pick: Under 57.5
Tennessee vs Arkansas Preview
Nico Iamaleava has a lot of hype around him. But — if we're being honest — I don't think he's been all that elite aside from one big game against FCS Chattanooga. He's averaging over 10 YPA with seven touchdown passes, but his 72.2 PFF Passing Grade and five turnover-worthy plays tell a different story.
Tennessee struggled to run the ball against Oklahoma, which put more pressure on Iamaleava. He struggled, posting a sub-200 yard effort and a 61.4 PFF Passing grade.
Tennessee ranks 58th nationally in Rush Success rate. If the Vols can't run the ball, I'm unsure if Iamaleava can beat defenses over the top.
Tennessee is among the nation's best defenses, and the Vols will pressure Green. But you have to contain the rush if you want to beat Arkansas. Luckily, the Vols can do that, ranking first nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 10th in Defensive Line Yards.
Tennessee's defense also leads the nation in Havoc, forcing seven turnovers while ranking 10th nationally in PFF's Pass Rushing grade and 25th in PFF's Coverage grades. The Vols are elite at pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers.
Green looked incredible in early, but he's regressed in recent weeks.
Against Auburn and Texas A&M, the Hogs quarterback failed to average seven YPA and posted five turnover-worthy plays. Green's biggest issue is he struggles in a broken pocket, which bodes poorly against Tennessee's elite defense.
However, Green is elite as a rusher, averaging 6.5 YPC with 25 missed tackles forced. But doesn't protect the ball, as he's already fumbled nine times this year. Tennessee will take advantage of that.
Running back Ja'Quinden Jackson looks awesome, averaging 6.6 YPC with an 88 PFF Rushing grade — both marks are among the nation's best. But he's about to face the best rush defense he's faced all year.
Arkansas ranks 14th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed behind a strong front seven. So, you must beat Arkansas through the air. The Hogs rank 64th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed. However, they did hold Marcel Reed to under 200 yards passing with a 55.5 PFF Passing grade last week.
Tennessee vs Arkansas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tennessee and Arkansas match up statistically:
Tennessee Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 58 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 10 | 30 | |
Arkansas Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 86 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 1 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 113 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 116 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 47 |
| Middle 8 | 5 | 56 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (23) | 25.7 (37) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (15) | 53% (72) |
Tennessee Vols vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction
Which team takes advantage of their scoring opportunities?
Both defenses rank in the top 25 nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives, and both offenses rank outside the top 30 in Finishing Drives. Tennessee struggled to get in the endzone against Oklahoma, scoring only 16 points on five trips inside the Sooners' 40-yard line.
With Petrino and Heupel calling plays, the pace will be high. But I wonder if either team can run the ball. Green and Iamaleava haven't been overly effective passers, and Green will be under pressure all night.
So, I think the total is a tad high.
The Tennessee-Oklahoma total closed around the same number, and that game stayed way under.
If neither ball can run the ball, there won't be many chunk passing plays.
Pick: Under 57.5
How to Watch Tennessee vs Arkansas Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Tennessee vs Arkansas Betting Trends
- Arkansas is 3-2 SU but 4-1 ATS.
- Arkansas games are 3-2 to the over.
- Tennessee is 4-0 SU and ATS.
- Tennessee games are 3-1 to the over.
Arkansas vs Tennessee Weather
