Despite a proximity within 400 miles, Tennessee and NC State have only played each other three times since the first meeting in 1911. The 2012 victory by the Volunteers signifies the only other time this series has been played after World War II.
Fast forward to the 2024 season, and both the Volunteers and Wolfpack sit just outside the top of their respective conferences, looking to break the ceiling into a conference championship game — as we look to break down Tennessee vs. NC State in College Football Week 2.
Tennessee is currently a 9-point favorite (-9) over NC State for Saturday night, with the Vols -350 favorites on the moneyline. More importantly, the NC State vs. Tennessee over/under is now down to 60 points, which is good news for my Tennessee vs. NC State predictions.
Tennessee vs. NC State Pick
- Pick: Over 61.5
My Tennessee vs. NC State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Tennessee vs. NC State Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 60 -110o / -110u | -350 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 60 -110o / -110u | +275 |
- Point Spread: Tennessee -9 · NC State +9
- Total: Over/Under 60
- Moneyline: Tennessee -350 · NC State +275
Head coach Josh Heupel didn't break a sweat in Week 1 as Tennessee cruised past Chattanooga, 69-3. The Volunteers were expected to struggle in the defensive backfield with no starting experience, but the Mocs completed only half of their passes.
The first game of the season wasn't as pleasant for NC State head coach Dave Doeren. Despite featuring one of the best Group of Five quarterback transfers, the Wolfpack entered the fourth quarter trailing Western Carolina.
The Catamounts had plenty of success in Standard Downs passing, generating methodical and explosive drives. NC State struggled to keep Western Carolina out of the backfield, allowing nine tackles for loss.
Because of the Week 1 results, this spread has steamed through seven in favor of Tennessee. This will be a neutral site game for the Duke's Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Let's get to the NC State vs. Tennessee preview.
Tennessee Football vs. NC State Football Preview
Tennessee Volunteers
Heupel stated at SEC Media Days that there was an expectation quarterback Nico Iamaleava would be ready to make a significant contribution from the beginning of the season.
The head coach was spot on as the sophomore threw for more than 300 yards on 22-of-28 passing against Chattanooga. Iamaleava created two big time throws, no turnover worthy plays and had a quick release at 2.6 seconds.
The offensive line did their part in protecting the quarterback, too, allowing just one passing attempt to fly with pressure from the Mocs' defense.
This scoring drive:
Nico Iamaleava — 2/2, 59 yards, :26 secondsIamaleava’s velocity is unreal 🚀 pic.twitter.com/AqR8wER848
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) August 31, 2024
Heupel's stretch wide spread formation was rolling for the weapons outside of the tackle box.
At least eight different players drew three targets on the day, but a former Oregon Ducks wideout stole the show. Dont'e Thornton Jr. caught all three targets for a grand total of 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
The Tennessee offense was firing on all cylinders, as if the timing was in mid-season form.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Tennessee defensive line took over the game, producing five quarterback hurries against Chattanooga. The Mocs were stuffed in Standard Downs, resulting in an average third-down distance of 9.9 yards, going 1-for-14 on conversion attempts.
Although Chattanooga doesn't bring the pedigree of an SEC opponent, the Mocs failed to produce a single explosive or methodical drive by getting beyond the Tennessee 40-yard line on just three-of-14 possessions.
NC State Wolfpack Preview
Per Sagarin ratings, NC State should've had an easier time with Western Carolina than Tennessee's afternoon hosting Chattanooga. The Wolfpack were inline for an FCS upset if not for a flurry of touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Coastal Carolina transfer quarterback Grayson McCall had an unkind introduction to NC State football, seeing pressure on nine drop backs, with targets dropping four balls on the day.
Blindside left tackle Anthony Belton was responsible for two of the pressures allowed, but the offensive line, as a whole, failed to dominate the line of scrimmage in Standard Downs.
NC State ended the victory with 8-of-32 rushing attempts stuffed, close to the national average mark of 30%. The Catamounts' defense spent the entire trip playing in the backfield, with nine tackles for loss.
With an overall Success Rate just above national average on the day, the Wolfpack offense relied on explosives to win the game. McCall completed 10 passes that gained 15 yards or more, tripling the national average in explosive drive rate.
Target share for the Wolfpack weapons may be different going forward, as wideout Dacari Collins was responsible for half of the team's drops.
While the struggles on offense can be centered around the offensive line, the defensive line failed to take over the Catamounts' offense.
Western Carolina had 42 snaps in Standard Downs to just 17 in Passing Downs, averaging 7.5 yards per play on rushing attempts. Coordinator Tony Gibson had no answers for a 3-3-5 defense that lost one of the program's best-ever linebackers, allowing three-of-five red zone attempts to result in touchdowns.
Weakside linebacker Sean Brown had one of the lowest grades of any defender against the rush.
Although Western Carolina was well above national average in Success Rate using its path, NC State corner Aydan White allowed just five-of-11 opponent targets to be caught, with two resulting in a pass breakup.
How to Make College Football Picks for My Tennessee vs. NC State Prediction
There are a number of items involved in the handicap of NC State vs. Tennessee, starting with the trenches for the Wolfpack. NC State allowed six quarterback hurries against Western Carolina, an area the Volunteers can expose.
Edge James Pearce Jr. is expected to compete for all-SEC honors this season as one of the best creators of Havoc for the Tennessee defense. Pearce played only 10 snaps against Chattanooga, but he's expected to play every down against the Wolfpack.
McCall should be under pressure once again, but there are plenty of weapons surrounding the quarterback to test the Tennessee secondary.
Slot target Kevin Concepcion quickly became acclimated with his new quarterback, drawing 14 targets for 121 yards and three touchdowns against Western Carolina.
The Volunteers' ability to defend the slot is paramount, as no other wide receiver for the Wolfpack drew more than five targets. Slot corner Boo Carter received the most coverage snaps for Tennessee against Chattanooga, allowing two-of-three targets in Week 1.
The bigger handicap may come with the NC State coverage in the nickel defense against Heupel's offense operated by Iamaleava. The aggressiveness of Gibson's coverage schemes extended into 2024, using heavy amounts of Cover 1 and Cover Zero. Over the past two seasons, the Tennessee offense has had a high Success Rate against both looks, providing an explosive EPA against Cover 1.
While the NC State offensive and defensive lines are expected to have continued struggles, the Tennessee stretch spread offense is expected to thrive.
Iamaleava may have found his most explosive target in Thornton, but wideout Bru McCoy also racked up more than four yards per route run through six receptions.
With the Wolfpack expected to continue a heavy pass attack as a result of no push in the run game, points will hit the scoreboard early, especially with two unproven defensive backfields.
Pick: Over 61.5 or Better
How to Watch Tennessee vs. NC State
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Tennessee vs. NC State Betting Trends
- 93% of the bets are on NC State against the spread while 91% of the money is on the Wolfpack to cover.
Tennessee-NC State Weather
