Mississippi State and Toledo meet in Starkville on Saturday night for a Week 3 matchup on the gridiron.
The Bulldogs have split their first two games under a new head coach, with a win over Eastern Kentucky and a loss at Arizona State.
Meanwhile, the Rockets are perfect through two contests, and they continue to be a strong program under their veteran coach.
These are two teams that love to sling the ball around and play with tempo, so I think this could be a pretty entertaining game at Davis Wade Stadium.
Here's my Toledo vs. Mississippi State prediction and pick.
Toledo vs Mississippi State Pick
- My Prediction: Mississippi State Team Total Over 20.5
My Toledo vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Mississippi State Team Total over with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Toledo vs. Mississippi State Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
- Toledo vs. Mississippi State Point Spread: Toledo +10 · Mississippi State -10
- Toledo vs. Mississippi State Total: Over/Under 57 Points
- Toledo vs. Mississippi State Moneyline: Toledo ML +310 · Mississippi State ML -400
Toledo vs. Mississippi State Preview
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview: Consistency is Name of Game
Since Jason Candle became head coach, Toledo has been one of the more consistent programs in the country. The 66 wins during his tenure are the most in the MAC, and he needs just seven more to pass Gary Pinkel as the program’s all-time leader.
The success isn’t just eye-catching in the MAC. The Rockets haven't had a losing season since 2009, the fifth-longest streak in the FBS behind Boise State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Alabama.
Even with the departures from last season’s team, Toledo was still picked to finish second in the MAC in a vote by the league’s coaches. This won’t be a school that's going to fear an SEC opponent on the road.
In fact, Candle’s squad has had success against Power Four foes in recent years. The Rockets were beaten by a walk-off field goal at Illinois last season and only lost by three at Notre Dame in 2021.
With all the transition happening at Mississippi State, I’m expecting Candle to have his team fired up and ready to go on Saturday night.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Schedule is Extremely Difficult
After a disappointing 2023 season, Mississippi State decided to go another direction with the program by bringing in Jeff Lebby as head coach. This isn’t Lebby’s first time coaching in the Magnolia State.
The former Oklahoma offensive coordinator also had a stint at Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin for two seasons. This means Lebby should have experience and knowledge of the rivalry in the state and the expectations of the SEC.
In his first season, the league did Lebby no favors with his schedule. The Bulldogs have trips to Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Oxford and they host Missouri at home.
It's rated by multiple outlets as the second-toughest schedule in the country, which is why the loss at Arizona State last week could be a big miss for MSU.
I’m not worried about the offense under Lebby, but as we saw in Week 2, the Bulldogs need to have many improvements on defense to be competitive in conference action.
How to Bet Toledo vs. Mississippi State Predictions
Even after the showing last week, I can only back Mississippi State in this spot at home. The spread has moved multiple points from the opener, so I think there’s a better way to back the SEC school.
So, my best bet is for the Bulldogs to clear their first-half team total of 20.5 points. I would bet this up to 22.5, and I don’t hate a look at MSU to clear the full game total of 36.5.
One big reason I like Mississippi State to get off to a hot start is what Lebby said following the loss at Arizona State. In his postgame presser, he was frustrated with how the offense started the game, and he mentioned it again later in the week.
I expect the sense of urgency to come from the opening kick, similar to the win against EKU. Lebby’s squad scored 35 points in the opening half of that game.
As for the matchup, these are a pair of teams that both rank inside the top 10 in seconds per play. You should see plenty of tempo on both sides of the ball, leading to more possessions for MSU.
I’m also not buying this Toledo team that lost a lot in the offseason. The Rockets’ star quarterback and their 1,400-yard rusher both transferred, but there's also big holes on defense.
Toledo lost three of four starters in the secondary, which included a player drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. This isn't good against MSU’s high-flying passing attack.
Whenever a smaller team tries to play with tempo against a stronger opponent, it typically favors the more talented team, and I expect the Bulldogs to get off to a great start here at home.
Pick: Mississippi State 1H Team Total Over 20.5 (Play to 22.5)
How to Watch Toledo vs. Mississippi State
| Location: | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Toledo-Mississippi State Betting Trends
- 92% of the bets are on Mississippi State to cover the spread against Toledo.
MSU vs. Toledo Weather
