A pair of Group of Five conference contenders will have a bayou-flavored Interstate 10 clash in Week 4.
The Tulane Green Wave (1-2) and Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (2-0) are set to kick from Cajun Field in a battle of conference supremacy between the Sun Belt and AAC on Saturday, Sept. 21 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Green Wave find themselves in a massive sandwich spot after facing Kansas State and Oklahoma in each of the past two weeks. Then, after facing Louisiana, they have to open conference play in a tricky spot against South Florida.
It's worth noting that new Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall previously served in the same role at Troy, beating the Ragin' Cajuns by a possession in each of the last two years of Sun Belt play.
Louisiana, meanwhile, has had an easier path with games against Kennesaw State and Grambling, giving it a strength of schedule of 132nd. The Cajuns will not be looking ahead to conference play in Week 5, with a road game at Wake Forest on deck.
Tulane enters as a -1.5 favorite with an over/under of 52.5.
With both teams looking to snag an important nonconference victory, let's dive into my Tulane vs. Louisiana prediction and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
Tulane vs. Louisiana Odds, Spread, Pick
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 53.5 -110 / -110 | -125 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 53.5 -110 / -110 | +105 |
Spread
I am betting Louisiana on the spread at +3.
Moneyline
I don't have a wager on which team will win outright.
Over/Under
Instead of betting the over/under, I'm targeting a side in the Ragin' Cajuns.
Prediction
Louisiana +3
How to Watch Tulane vs. Louisiana
| Location: | Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Tulane Green Wave vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Betting Preview
Tulane Football
Offensive coordinator Joe Craddock made the move from Troy to Tulane with Sumrall, bringing experience in game planning against the Louisiana defense.
The Green Wave continue to rush on nearly 60% of offensive snaps, featuring one of the most elusive running backs in the Group of Five in Makhi Hughes.
Craddock calls a plethora of inside and outside zone reads for Hughes with quarterback Darian Mensah.
Hughes has kept his career average from a yards-after-contact perspective at 3.6, creating six explosive runs and nine missed tackles on 53 rushing attempts.
Tulane has struggled to throw the ball since its opening game against Southeastern Louisiana. Since that game, Mensah has generated three touchdowns and five turnover-worthy plays.
Fumbles have also been an issue, as the Green Wave have three fumbles lost in the past two games against Kansas State and Oklahoma.
Despite ranking 100th in Havoc Allowed on offense, Mensah has led Tulane to a top-10 number in Passing EPA.
Tulane has a DUDE at QB and his name is Darian Mensah
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 7, 2024
Sumrall's 3-3-5 defense has consistently struggled in a number of areas.
Although the Kansas State and Oklahoma offenses pack a punch, the Green Wave sit outside the top 100 in Defensive Havoc and coverage grading, per PFF.
The biggest area of concern is the lack of tackling, ranking 132nd thanks to a whopping 48 missed tackles through three games.
Louisiana Football
Louisiana welcomed the return of injured quarterback Ben Wooldridge to start the season. Through two games, the senior has recorded four touchdowns and zero turnover-worthy plays against Grambling and Kennesaw State.
Wooldridge has not committed a turnover-worthy play in the passing game in 122 attempts dating back to the 2022 season. Throw out a seven-turnover-worthy play performance in a single game against Southern Miss, and Wooldridge has three mistakes in a total of 390 passing attempts in his career.
𝐈𝐍𝐒𝐈𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐎𝐔𝐈𝐒𝐈𝐀𝐍𝐀 𝐀𝐓𝐇𝐋𝐄𝐓𝐈𝐂𝐒
Keeping you up-to-date on all things Ragin' Cajuns from last week!#GeauxCajunspic.twitter.com/axASu7hTT0
— Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns® (@RaginCajuns) September 10, 2024
Louisiana's zone-read rush concept has a heavy influence of 11 and 12 personnel, using hitch and crossing routes as the primary driver to create explosives in the passing game.
Elijah Davis and Zylan Perry have produced more than 250 rushing yards through two games, with each averaging more than 4.7 yards after contact.
The wideouts, meanwhile, have produced the most explosive plays. Jacob Bernard and Robert Williams each average at least three yards per route run — an elite level in terms of explosiveness.
The Ragin' Cajuns feature a three-man front that often shifts to nickel in passing downs.
Linebacker K.C. Ossai leads the team in tackles, followed closely by safety Tyrone Lewis Jr. Louisiana is close to dead last in creating Havoc, although that could be the game plan for coordinator Jim Salgado considering the opening schedule.
Tulane vs. Louisiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and Louisiana match up statistically:
Tulane Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 40 |  |
| Havoc | 100 | 132 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 42 | |
Louisiana Offense vs. Tulane Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 34 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 67 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 132 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 113 | 66 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 69 | 44 |
| Middle 8 | 26 | 22 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (83) | 32.1 (127) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (41) | 52% (59) |
How to Bet My Tulane vs. Louisiana Prediction
There are distinct differences at the quarterback position for both squads.
Wooldridge has been a head coach's dream in terms of taking care of the ball. Although the 2024 schedule has been Cupcake City, Louisiana continues to rank top-20 Havoc Allowed season after season.
Wooldridge leads a Ragin' Cajuns offense that ranks second nationally in Quality Drives thanks to just two passes defensed and six tackles for loss by two opponents.
With Tulane ranking 112th in Defensive Havoc and 113th in coverage grading, expect Louisiana to maintain drives in standard downs to set up scoring opportunities.
Tulane has fielded a number of issues in the Havoc Allowed on the offensive side of the ball. Although the competition has been Kansas State and Oklahoma, the Green Wave offensive line has given up 16 tackles for loss and 38 pressures in three games.
Accurate passing has been a consistent issue for Mensah, as Tulane ranks 130th in on-target rate.
With a look-ahead conference spot facing Tulane and not Louisiana, this could be a deflating spot for a Green Wave squad coming off two grinding Power Four games with USF on deck.
Pick: Louisiana +3
Tulane-Louisiana Betting Trends
- Tulane has taken 88% of the bets and 93% of the money.
- The over has landed 56% of the tickets and generated 61% of the cash.
Louisiana vs. Tulane Weather
