The UC Davis Aggies take on the Montana State Bobcats in Bozeman, Montana, on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. EST on ESPN 2.
Montana State is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -460. UC Davis, meanwhile, enters as a +11.5 underdog and is +320 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my UC Davis vs Montana State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
UC Davis vs Montana State Prediction
- UC Davis vs Montana State Pick: Montana State -11.5 (Play to 13.5)
My UC Davis vs Montana State best bet is on the Bobcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UC Davis vs Montana State Odds
| UC Davis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -113 | 58.5 -113o / -113u | +320 |
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -113 | 58.5 -113o / -113u | -460 |
- UC Davis vs Montana State Spread: Montana State -11.5, UC Davis +11.5
- UC Davis vs Montana State Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- UC Davis vs Montana State Moneyline: UC Davis +320, Montana State -460
UC Davis vs Montana State College Football Betting Preview
UC Davis Aggies Betting Preview: Defense is the Downfall
Year 2 under offensive coordinator Paul Shelton has continued to be as successful as the first. The Aggies’ 32.8 points per game are about on par with last year’s team (34.7), but scoring from the top offenses is up this year.
Last year’s finish was good enough for 10th in the country, while this year’s offense ranks 28th.
Like all great FCS offenses, UC Davis leads the charge with a dynamic run game (188.4 yards per game, 24th).
Running back Jordan Fisher rushed for nearly 800 yards through nine games, fourth-most in the Big Sky, and Carter Vargas acts as the short-yardage back with a team-best five touchdowns.
Shelton does a good job calling a red-zone offense, particularly through the air. The lack of rushing touchdowns (just 15 total) is due, in part, to quarterback Caden Pinnick’s 20 passing touchdowns, which lead the Big Sky.
Pinnick has been used more as a dual-threat over the past few games, which has opened up the passing game more often. It’s also a change necessitated by an offensive line that’s allowed too much pressure.
Pinnick is the most-sacked QB in the Big Sky and has been pressured the most (98 times) with a 25.5% pressure-to-sack ratio, a concerning figure.
The other area of concern for 7-2 UC Davis is a defense that’s not just beatable, but downright porous.
Idaho State delivered the second loss of the season with a 38-36 win and 220 rushing yards from RB Dason Brooks. Earlier in the year, Washington dropped 70 on this unit. It's excusable to get blown out in that game, but 70 points is concerning territory.
Against better offenses, the Aggies don’t hold up very well. Southern Utah scored 34, Cal Poly (56th in scoring) found 27 and Idaho State scored 38.
FCS teams poised to make playoff runs simply don’t allow such a myriad of points. Defense wins postseason games at this level, especially as the weather deteriorates.
Montana State Bobcats Betting Preview: Still a Premier Team
At 8-2, Montana State is still looking like a premier team in the Big Sky despite its heavy offseason losses last year. Those two losses came at Oregon and the following week against South Dakota State in overtime.
That SDSU loss may look worse with age, but the Jackrabbits were at full strength and with starting quarterback Chase Mason, who they have been without for the past few weeks.
A unique offensive style remains in place after another coordinator departure to the FBS. It’s a system based around the run game, but in creative ways that successfully incorporates the RPO and has been in place for several years.
Three Bobcats have over 500 yards rushing, led by Julius Davis' 695 yards. Davis returned late last year from injury and has stepped up in the absence of Scottre Humphrey (New Mexico).
Youngster Adam Jones isn’t nearly on pace to repeat from his 1,000-yard freshman season, but he leads the team with nine touchdowns.
QB Justin Lamson was a late addition after initially committing to Bowling Green from Stanford, and he’s had as efficient a year as he can with 18 touchdowns against just two interceptions and over 500 rushing yards (eight touchdowns).
Another year, another elite Montana State offensive line. Freshman Braden Zimmer is on track to be named an FCS Freshman All-American with zero sacks allowed on over 300 pass blocking snaps.
Historically, the run game has received the majority of the praise in Bozeman, but the defense has been one of the best units in the FCS this season.
Teams convert less than 30% of their third-down attempts on average against the Bobcats, seventh-best in the FCS. They also field a top-10 run defense (102.9 yards per game).
The defense is multiple, and the sum is greater than its parts this season. Sixteen players logged at least 200 snaps through 10 games. Last year, three Bobcats landed on the All-Big Sky first team. It’s unlikely Montana State repeats that feat in 2025.
Coordinator Shawn Howe has done an excellent job keeping up the Montana State standards in Year 1, and it’s a defense built to make a deep playoff run.
UC Davis vs Montana State Pick, Betting Analysis
Since 2006, Montana State has gone 7-1 against UC Davis.
Last year, the Bobcats staved off a furious Aggies comeback (one that featured a 20-0 edge in the fourth quarter by UC Davis), but before that, only one game finished within a score (a 48-41 Montana State win in 2012). That win last year made it seven straight for the Bobcats.
The weather in Bozeman on Saturday is pleasant — a gift these teams will enjoy while the days of fall fleet in the Gallatin.
UC Davis has by far the worst individual phase of the game in this contest: its run defense. The Aggies surrender nearly 160 yards per game, a weakness exposed by Brooks just two weeks ago.
Montana State has the talent up front and in the backfield, along with the scheme, to run all day on this UC Davis defense.
Both offenses are potent, but I trust Montana State’s stop unit to slow down the UC Davis charge. Pinnick tends to turn the football over, something Lamson and the Bobcats have not done for years.
Montana State has the overall advantage in all departments.
The power ratings here favor Montana State by 15 points on Saturday. The way the Bobcats have run away with games this year, I’m following that lead.
This late in the season, an aggregate of normalized industry power ratings fares well against FCS betting lines, even as those lines are becoming sharper by the year. But a field-goal advantage here gives the green light to lay the points with the home team.
Pick: Montana State -11.5 (Play to 13.5)
UC Davis vs Montana State Betting Trends
