Something is rotten in the state of Florida — at least if your name isn’t Miami.
The UCF Knights (3-1, 1-1 Big 12) and Florida Gators (2-2, 1-1 SEC) have a chance to buck that negative trend around Power Four programs in the Sunshine State.
The Gators emerge from a bye with one of their last feasible opportunities to record a win, as Billy Napier’s seat grows increasingly warmer.
The Knights dropped their first game of the season last week in the Bounce House, losing 48-21 to Colorado. It was UCF’s worst rushing performance to date, but a mediocre Florida defense may serve as the perfect antidote for a rebound outing.
The Gators scored a season-high 45 points against Mississippi State the last time they took the field. Do they have an encore performance to keep pace with the UCF rushing attack?
Let's get into my UCF vs. Florida predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
UCF vs Florida Odds, Lines, Pick
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -112 | 62 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -108 | 62 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- UCF vs Florida spread: UCF -1
- UCF vs Florida over/under: 62 points
- UCF vs Florida moneyline: UCF -115
- UCF vs. Florida pick: Over 61.5
UCF vs Florida Preview
UCF Football
Few people likely had UCF failing to generate a 100-yard rusher last week against a Colorado defense not known for strength at the line of scrimmage, but that was exactly the case as the Knights both scored their fewest points (21) and allowed the most points (48) that they have all season.
But even with the “lackluster” rushing performance by UCF standards of 177 yards, the Knights still carry an offense that ranks first in Rush Success and Line Yards into their game against Florida.
RJ Harvey ranks sixth in the FBS with 131.3 yards rushing per game and could be in for another big day against a Florida defense that barely sits inside the top 100 in Rush Success.
KJ Jefferson has been inconsistent at best when it comes to throwing the ball, but the dual-threat quarterback presents yet another challenge for the Florida front seven to try and contain on the ground.
For the Knights to find offensive success, however, they must cut down on turnovers. Four such mistakes against the Buffaloes severely handicapped their game plan last week, so it is imperative for UCF to minimize those in order to stay on schedule with their run scheme.
The biggest weakness for UCF continues to be its secondary. The Knights defense ranks 124th in Pass Success, and only Texas Tech has allowed more than UCF’s nine passing touchdowns among Big 12 teams.
Florida’s two quarterbacks haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire, but if there was a defense for either of them to pick apart, the Knights would be candidate No. 1.
Florida Football
Billy Napier has successfully made it to the month of October, but the odds grow increasingly worse that he’ll make it to the month of November.
That said, UCF serves at what will be Florida’s best chance to pick up a win until its season finale in Tallahassee.
Inconsistent quarterback play has plagued the Gators offense this season, with Napier opting to use an odd rotation of Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway throughout games.
A three-touchdown outing against Mississippi State likely keeps Mertz as the leader in the clubhouse for this matchup, but Lagway — who was a perfect 7-of-7 in that game — is still expected to be sprinkled into the Gators offense against UCF.
While the two-quarterback system hasn’t been ideal, Florida’s running-back-by-committee approach has been far more consistent.
The Gators are 13th nationally in Rush Success and just dropped a season-high 226 yards rushing against the Bulldogs where seven different players recorded at least one carry.
Colorado, a team that hadn’t shown much life when it comes to rushing the ball, just had its best running performance against this UCF defense, so perhaps the Gators can capitalize on a UCF defense that is still beaten down from the Buffaloes.
Offense hasn’t been great for Florida, but the defense has arguably been worse. The Gators are one of only two SEC teams allowing over 400 yards of offense per game, and Mississippi State’s 28 points were the fewest the Gators have held a Power Four team to this season.
Of particular concern is the Florida run defense against the potent UCF rushing attack.
The Gators are 110th in the FBS, allowing 188.8 rushing yards per game, and surrendered 550 combined rushing yards against Texas A&M and the Bulldogs in their last two games.
Florida vs UCF Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and UCF match up statistically:
UCF Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 113 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 96 | |
Florida Offense vs. UCF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 124 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 83 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 27 | |
| Quality Drives | 82 | 57 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 37 | 102 |
| PFF Coverage | 58 | 54 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 83 | 8 |
| Middle 8 | 74 | 98 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.9 (25) | 26.1 (45) |
| Rush Rate | 69% (5) | 53% (70) |
UCF vs Florida Prediction
UCF getting blown out by Colorado at home last week was one of the more surprising scorelines of the week, but was it a trend or just a blip on the radar?
While I think the Knights rebound into the win category this week, the more sure thing in this matchup is fading each team's defense. Florida is yet to hold a Power Four team to fewer than 28 points this season, and UCF hasn't held one under 34.
The Gators have struggled to bottle up the run all season, and UCF is the best rushing attack they'll have seen to date.
Harvey and Co. will be looking for a bounce-back performance after falling back to Earth against Colorado, and that’s exactly what they’ll find.
The Knights defense is going to be tested again this week against a Florida rushing attack that is even better than Colorado's, and while Graham Mertz will be going professional in something other than football, he's talented enough to expose this weak UCF secondary.
With this game likely being close, I expect the offenses to trade punches all four quarters and cruise over this total
Pick: Over 61.5 (Play to 62.5)
How to Watch UCF vs Florida Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
UCF vs Florida Betting Trends
- UCF is 3-1 in its last four games against the spread.
- UCF is 1-0 in its road games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in four of UCF's last four games.
- Florida is 1-3 in their last four games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in three of Florida's last four games.
- The total has gone over in two of Florida's last three games at home.
UCF vs Florida Weather
