No. 9 Iowa State and UCF meet for the first time on the gridiron on Saturday for a Big 12 matchup.
The Cyclones are one of 11 FBS teams undefeated heading into this week. They have a 6-0 overall record and three conference wins.
Meanwhile, the Knights have dropped three straight after opening with a trio of wins. They hope to stop the losing run.
The Cyclones are 13.5-point favorites on the spread with a 50-point over/under. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on Fox Sports 1.
This feels like a game between teams moving in opposite directions, and I think this should allow us to back a home favorite.
Read on for my UCF vs Iowa State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
UCF vs Iowa State Odds, Spread & Betting Lines
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +365 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -490 |
- UCF vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -13.5 (-10)
- UCF vs Iowa State over/under: 49.5 Total Points
- UCF vs Iowa State moneyline: UCF ML +365 · Iowa State ML -490
UCF vs Iowa State Predictions, Pick
Prediction
- UCF vs Iowa State Best Bet: Iowa State -13.5
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on betting the moneyline in this Big 12 battle.
Spread
My UCF vs Iowa State best bet is on the Cyclones spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Over/Under
Instead of targeting the over/under, I'm looking toward the spread.
UCF Football vs Iowa State Football Preview
UCF Football Betting Preview
After a solid start to the year, coach Gus Malzahn and his team have not had a good three weeks.
The Knights have lost and failed to cover the spread against Cincinnati, Florida and Colorado.
Even amidst the struggles, Malzahn can’t point the finger in the trenches, as UCF has been solid on both sides of the ball on the ground.
The Knights have rushed for 1,608 yards with 15 touchdowns on the ground through the first six games. They rank fourth nationally with 268 rushing yards per game, 20 more than the next-closest Power 4 conference team.
Meanwhile, the UCF defense has also been strong against the run, allowing just 91.2 rushing yards per game. This mark is good for second in the conference and 12th-fewest nationally.
Malzahn switched his starting quarterback last week by benching transfer KJ Jefferson to try to get the passing game going. He mentioned in his weekly presser that it could be a rotation of Jacurri Brown and EJ Colson in this one, but he didn’t rule out Jefferson's return.
Iowa State Football Betting Preview
Matt Campbell's program is off to one of the best starts in school history, especially if he gets a win here.
The school's last 7-0 start came in 1938, while Iowa State also looks to move to 4-0 in conference play for the first time ever.
A win would also close out another perfect October under Campbell for ISU. The Cyclones are 21-11 in the month during his tenure, and it would be the second-straight season and fourth time under Campbell that they were undefeated in October.
One key to the strong start has been the play of an opportunistic defense. Iowa State ranks top five nationally with 10 interceptions. The Cyclones also lead the Big 12 with a +9 turnover margin.
With Rocco Becht complimenting the defense with solid quarterback play, ISU is on its way to playing in the conference championship game.
Iowa State vs UCF Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and UCF match up statistically:
UCF Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 76 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 109 | 7 | |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 6 | |
Iowa State Offense vs. UCF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 111 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 64 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 74 | 109 |
| PFF Coverage | 38 | 9 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 60 | 89 |
| Middle 8 | 88 | 46 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.1 (26) | 29.2 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 67% (7) | 58% (35) |
How to Bet My UCF vs Iowa State Pick
This is a matchup of the Big 12 conference’s best offense (UCF) and best defense (ISU), and I’m electing to go with the better defense here at home.
So, my best bet is to take Iowa State at -13.5, which I would play up to -15.5. I would also look at Becht to go over his passing props.
One significant advantage that plays into this handicap is Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball. The Knights have struggled in this area, and I don’t see that getting any better here.
In the contest, UCF ranks outside the top 100 on offense and defense on Finishing Drives. This means the Knights aren’t punching in their chances and are allowing opponents to convert drives into points on most drives.
Meanwhile, Iowa State has excelled in this area. The Cyclones’ defense ranks inside the top 10 nationally in this metric, while the offense ranks 39th.
Yes, the Knights could run the ball well, but I don’t trust them to score touchdowns on quality drives.
With that said, I do think Iowa State can do enough to slow down the run game. The Cyclones rank inside the top 25 among Power 4 programs in Stuff Rate and EPA per Rush allowed.
When Iowa State has the ball, I like Becht to continue his fine play against a weak UCF pass defense. Becht’s offense ranks 30th in Pass Success Rate, while the Knights rank 116th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Once you add in the questions at quarterback here on the road, I like Iowa State to continue the hot start with a dominant win here.
Pick: Iowa State -13.5 (Play to -15.5)
UCF vs Iowa State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
UCF vs Iowa State will be played at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, Oct. 19 at 7:30 p.m. ET. You can watch the game live on Fox Sports 1.
College Football Betting Trends for UCF vs. Iowa State
- UCF has taken 31% of the tickets and generated 51% of the money.
- The under has landed 38% of the bets and 40% of the cash.
UCF vs Iowa State Weather
