The UCF Knights (4-5) take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1) in Lubbock, Texas. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Texas Tech is favored by 23.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2200. UCF, meanwhile, enters as a +23.5 underdog and is +1100 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my UCF vs. Texas Tech prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
UCF vs Texas Tech Prediction, Picks
- UCF vs. Texas Tech Pick: UCF +24 (Play to +21.5)
My Texas Tech vs. UCF best bet is on the Knights to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UCF vs Texas Tech Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -105 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +1100 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -115 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -2200 |
- UCF vs Texas Tech Spread: Texas Tech -23.5, UCF +23.5
- UCF vs Texas Tech Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- UCF vs Texas Tech Moneyline: UCF +1100, Texas Tech -2200
UCF vs Texas Tech Game Preview
This is a spot where grabbing UCF +24 makes a ton of sense, and the numbers back it up in a way that’s more convincing the deeper you look.
Let's first argue against backing the Knights here. UCF’s offense hasn’t been efficient, ranking 89th in EPA Per Pass and 72nd in EPA Per Rush, with a 45.8% available-yards rate that sits just 70th nationally.
They'll be running head-first into a Texas Tech defense that ranks first in the country in available yards allowed and top-10 across virtually every early-downs metric.
On the surface, that might sound like a recipe for a blowout, but that’s precisely what creates value on such a large scale.
UCF’s defense is legitimately strong and matches up well, ranking fourth nationally in EPA Per Pass allowed at -0.25, holding opponents to only 41.2% of available yards, and consistently putting offenses behind the sticks.
Texas Tech’s offense, meanwhile, is far more mediocre than its reputation suggests. The Red Raiders rank 67th in EPA Per Pass and 112th in EPA Per Rush, and they're in the middle of the pack in terms of success on early downs.
That makes it difficult for them to separate consistently enough to justify a 24-point spread. There are a few injury concerns on both sides worth noting.
UCF is dealing with some offensive personnel injuries, and Texas Tech is missing pieces at wide receiver and in its defensive depth. And this game naturally leans toward a slower, more defense-driven script than the number implies.
How To Make UCF vs Texas Tech Picks
Yet, the key angle here is situational-based. To be blunt, this is a sleepy spot for the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech is coming off an emotional win over top-10 BYU, which screams a zombie-like effort is on the way. Teams often flatten the week following a big win, especially against an opponent that doesn’t carry the same marquee value. That dynamic tends to pull games toward the underdog.
I compare this spot to West Virginia vs. Houston a couple of weeks ago, when the Coogs were coming off a big win and came out extremely flat against the Mountaineers. This UCF team profiles similarly to West Virginia.
Combine that with UCF’s defensive profile, its ability to limit explosive plays and Texas Tech’s inconsistent efficiency on offense, and you have all the ingredients for a cover.
I’m taking UCF +24 as the matchup; the metrics and situational spot all point in the same direction, giving the Knights more than enough pathways to stay inside this number.
Pick: UCF +24 (Play to +21.5)
UCF vs Texas Tech Betting Trends
