The USC Trojans (3-3, 1-3 Big Ten) will travel to College Park, Maryland, on Saturday to take on the Maryland Terrapins (3-3, 0-3) in a Big Ten matchup. This game is set to air on FS1 at 4 p.m. ET.
Traveling cross-country for a conference game is tough and could hurt the Trojans here, but this is the reality of the new Big Ten. They have played tough and acclimated well to this point, and this would just be one more aspect for them to adjust to.
USC is a 7-point favorite in a game with a total of 56.5 points expected.
Let’s take a look into this matchup and see who I’m betting on in my USC vs Maryland predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 18.
USC vs Maryland Prediction, Pick
My USC vs. Maryland best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs Maryland Odds, Spread, Lines
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
- USC vs Maryland Spread: USC -7.5 · Maryland +7.5
- USC vs Maryland Over/Under: 57 Points
- USC vs Maryland Moneyline: USC -275 · Maryland +225
USC vs Maryland Preview
USC Trojans Betting Preview: Lacking Explosiveness on Offense
Lincoln Riley’s squad is now 3-3 on the season and only 1-3 in Big Ten play. Riley likely isn’t getting fired anytime soon, but with another disappointing season for USC, his seat may be heating up.
USC has had a very tough schedule, with wins against LSU, Utah State, and Wisconsin and one-score losses to Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State.
This could very easily be an undefeated Trojans team, but instead, they're being talked about like they're a middle-of-the-road squad.
Despite this difficult schedule, USC ranks fifth in Offensive Success Rate this season. They lack Explosiveness overall, as they are just 128th in Offensive Explosiveness and 59th in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Both aspects of this USC offensive attack have been strong. The Trojans rank ninth in Pass Success Rate and 42nd in Pass PPA.
Quarterback Miller Moss is averaging 0.09 EPA per dropback this year, as they're just taking small gains all the way down the field.
On the ground, USC ranks fourth in Rush Success Rate and 20th in Rush PPA, but it lacks explosiveness here as well, ranking 113th in Rush Explosiveness.
Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks has gotten most of the work out of the backfield with 103 carries for 651 yards on the year.
Defensively, the Trojans have been almost the exact opposite of their offense, as they sit 89th in Success Rate Allowed and 26th in Explosiveness Allowed. They're only 94th in Havoc generated and 37th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
This has been a tough unit to run on, as they are 16th in Rush Success Rate Allowed. However, because of the big plays, they're 103rd in Rush Explosiveness Allowed and 65th in Rush PPA Allowed.
The Trojans have been terrible at defending the pass. This defense ranks 120th in Pass Success Rate allowed but has kept these gains small, ranking fifth in Pass Explosiveness Allowed and 65th in Pass PPA Allowed.
This has impacted the defense most, as teams are passing the ball 58% of the time against USC this year.
Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview: Facing a Talent Deficit
Maryland is also 3-3 on the year and is still looking for its first Big Ten win of the season. It had an opportunity to do that against Northwestern as a 10-point favorite last week but instead lost, 37-10.
The Terrapins rank 53rd in Success Rate and 49th in Offensive Finishing Drives this season. Their offense has been solid but mostly unremarkable, ranking 55th in Pass Success Rate and 57th in Rush Success Rate.
Their run game comes in at 112th in Rush Explosiveness, so it's unlikely they take advantage of USC with big plays on the ground.
Maryland ranks 67th in both Success Rate Allowed and Explosiveness Allowed this season. It's 29th in Defensive Finishing Drives, proving to be strong at preventing opponents from scoring touchdowns when they get closer to the end zone.
They're only 105th in Havoc generated on the year as well.
Attacking Maryland on the ground has yielded solid results this season, as the Terps are 84th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 61st in Rush PPA Allowed. Against the pass, they're 53rd in Pass Success Rate Allowed and 67th in Pass PPA Allowed.
USC vs Maryland Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Maryland match up statistically:
USC Offense vs. Maryland Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 67 | |
| Quality Drives | 35 | 60 | |
Maryland Offense vs. USC Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 76 |  |
| Line Yards | 89 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 39 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 85 | |
| Quality Drives | 63 | 51 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 113 |
| PFF Coverage | 46 | 103 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 26 | 79 |
| Middle 8 | 71 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (65) | 25.9 (39) |
| Rush Rate | 41% (125) | 46% (111) |
USC vs Maryland Pick & Prediction
I understand the travel aspect of this game may be difficult for USC. It also may have a bit of a letdown following its overtime loss to Penn State last week. However, I think there's more than a touchdown of difference between these two teams.
Despite USC’s .500 record, I think the Trojans are a really strong team and will fare better down the stretch as their schedule lightens up.
Their offense has been a top-five unit in terms of Success Rate even with their difficult schedule. Even though the defense has holes in the passing game, it's still been coming along better than many expected with the conference transition.
Maryland will likely pick up a couple of Big Ten wins down the stretch, but I don’t know that it'll find a way to hang with the Trojans in this matchup.
The Terps' passing game will give it the best chance to keep it close, but it has one of the worst offensive lines in the Power 4. I won’t be looking to back them in this battle where they're at a talent disadvantage.
I like taking USC at the current line of -7, but I don’t like going much higher than that key number.
Pick: USC -7 (Play to -7.5)
USC vs Maryland Live: Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | SECU Stadium, College Park, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
USC vs Maryland Betting Trends
- 79% of the bets and 59% of the money is on USC against the spread.
- 34% of the tickets but 96% of the cash is on the over.
- 99% of the bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline is on the Trojans.
USC vs Maryland Weather
