If you listen closely, you can still hear the false alarms ringing from Raymond James Stadium after Alabama’s closer-than-expected 2023 win over South Florida.
The Crimson Tide, favored by 34.5 points over the Bulls last season, “escaped” with a 17-3 win in which Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson rotated at quarterback in place of a benched Jalen Milroe. As it turned out, Alabama and Milroe were actually pretty good last year, and South Florida was way better than expected in Alex Golesh’s first season as head coach.
Both programs started the 2024 season with resounding opening-week wins that featured impressive all-around performances as they combined to outscore their opponents 111-3.
So, what's in store Saturday? Let's get to my USF vs. Alabama prediction.
USF vs. Alabama Prediction
- Pick: Alabama -29.5
My USF-Alabama best bet is on the Tide to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
USF vs. Alabama Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+30.5 -108 | 64.5 -105o / -115u | +2200 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-30.5 -112 | 64.5 -105o / -115u | -8000 |
- Spread: USF +30.5 (-108) · Alabama -30.5 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 64.5
- Moneyline: USF +2200 · Alabama -8000
USF vs. Alabama Preview
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview: Plenty of Talent on Offense
Golesh couldn’t have asked for much more to begin his second season in Tampa as USF demolished Bethune-Cookman 48-3 in Week 1.
The former Tennessee offensive coordinator’s uptempo offense racked up over 400 yards of total offense, including 231 on the ground.
Vital to the team’s continued offensive success this year will be the play of Byrum Brown. The dual-threat quarterback was second in the AAC last year with 315.5 yards of offense per game as a freshman.
While Brown is arguably best known for his feet, he also has no shortage of weapons to throw to as last season’s leading receiver Sean Atkins is back and paired with Purdue transfer Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen.
Even with talent in the passing game, the bread and butter of this offense is its ground game.
Brown and running back Nay’quan Wright combined for over 1,600 yards rushing and 19 rushing touchdowns last season, and will be aided by an offensive line that, while it struggled in 2023, returns six of seven players who played at least 300 snaps last year.
Last year’s defense was hit or miss, depending on the competition.
The Bulls allowed over 40 points on five occasions, but many of their most important pieces are back — with one big exception. While USF was top 10 in the country in tackles for loss per game last year, one of the leaders in the front seven, Tramel Logan, was lost in the portal to Louisville.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Offense is Humming
It doesn’t get much more efficient than how Alabama ushered in the Kalen DeBoer era. The Crimson Tide needed just 12 completions and a monster team effort on the ground to score 63 points as they blanked Western Kentucky.
It was a coming-out party for freshman receiver Ryan Williams, who had two catches for 139 yards and two scores for an Alabama offense that demonstrated it could keep pace with what DeBoer and offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan did in their time at Washington.
Milroe showed why he is considered a Heisman contender in 2024, contributing five total touchdowns and 279 yards of offense in limited snaps against the Hilltoppers.
If things go to plan against the Bulls, it should be another limited day for Milroe, paired with a running-back-by-committee approach. The Crimson Tide had nine different players rush the ball in Week 1.
DeBoer may best be known for his offensive prowess, but this Alabama team still possesses one of the best defenses in the country, even without Caleb Downs.
The Tide held Western Kentucky to just 1.6 yards per carry in Week 1, a notable opening statement as Alabama prepares to face a dangerous rushing attack in Brown and South Florida.
USF vs. Alabama Prediction, Pick
It may have not been a landmark opening weekend for the SEC in their blockbuster matchups, but the teams that were supposed to win big generally won big, and Alabama was no exception.
This will not be a repeat of last season. This game is in Tuscaloosa and Alabama will be motivated to avoid an outing similar to its trip to South Florida in 2023.
The Crimson Tide will still likely avoid wanting to put much on tape with games against Wisconsin and Georgia in the coming weeks, but even a vanilla gameplan will be enough to overpower South Florida on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Alabama -29.5 (Play to -31)
How to Watch USF vs. Alabama
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
USF-Alabama Betting Trends
- 84% of the bets and 97% of the money is on Alabama against the spread in this matchup against USF.
NCAAF Weather: USF vs. Alabama
