The USF Bulls take on the Navy Midshipmen in Annapolis, Md. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
USF is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -380. The total is set at 64.5 points.
Here’s my USF vs. Navy prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
USF Bulls vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Picks
- USF vs. Navy Pick: Over 64.5 (-110, bet365)
My Navy vs. USF best bet is on the game to go over its point total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
USF vs Navy Odds, Line
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -118 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -390 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -104 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
- USF vs Navy Spread: USF -9.5, Navy +9.5
- USF vs Navy Over/Under: 62.5
- USF vs Navy Moneyline: USF ML -390, Navy ML +310
USF vs Navy NCAAF Week 12 Preview
South Florida Bulls
Entering Week 12, USF is currently in the driver's seat for the fifth conference champion auto-bid into the College Football Playoff.
The Bulls checked in at No. 24 in the latest CFP rankings, over contenders like James Madison and Memphis (who beat USF just a few weeks ago).
A lethal offense now combines with an opportunistic and Havoc-y defense to form a nasty team top to bottom. USF's season has been so strong that head coach Alex Golesh is a serious contender for big openings like Florida, Auburn, and UCLA.
Although Golesh & Co. were tripped up at Memphis, the focus is still evidently there in Tampa, as USF rebounded to dismantle UTSA, 55-23, in one of the most visibly lopsided games of the year.
There's no emergency shutoff for this team, either. When USF can score style points, it does, exhibited in that 55-point outing against UTSA, a 63-36 win over previously-unbeaten North Texas, and a 54-26 walloping of Charlotte.
Quarterback Byrum Brown has been excellent in 2025, with nearly 3,000 total scrimmage yards and 28 combined touchdowns (nine rushing). Even when up big, Brown stays in the game. He's played almost 600 snaps so far, compared to backup Gaston Moore's 61, despite a 6-2-1 spread record with an average cover of +11.8 points.
Currently, USF is without a deep threat in Chas Nimrod, who hasn't played since Week 7 against North Texas. Through seven weeks, Nimrod led USF with 38 targets for 466 yards.
The super-powered, extreme-tempo offense has led to final scores that suggest the defense is giving up more points than it should. USF ranks 40th nationally in points per drive, but it averages 75 plays per game, the fourth-most in the country.
USF's defense has scored four touchdowns, tied for the third-most in the country, and it ranks fourth in takeaways (21).
The offense plays fast and scores fast, and the defense takes the ball away frequently and scores on those opportunities. In essence, USF's defense is on the field far more than most teams. Its down-to-down efficiency is excellent (USF is 37th in EPA per play), but the volume of defensive snaps is tough to upkeep.
After this weekend's game at Navy, USF practically walks to the finish line. Its final two games are against UAB and Rice.
Navy Midshipmen
This isn't your father's Navy Midshipmen.
Rather than play in grind-it-out, physical battles with the traditional triple option offense, Navy modernized its option approach and now plays in some high-flying contests.
The offense is now run primarily from shotgun but still features motions and option plays derived from the age-old scheme.
But that offense was down its leader and quarterback, Blake Horvath. He was banged up in a 31-17 loss to North Texas two weeks ago and sat out the entire Notre Dame rivalry game last week, which resulted in a 49-10 defeat.
Horvath was a game-time decision and ultimately did not play, perhaps in an abundance of caution with a conference game at risk in the coming weeks — Navy plays USF and Memphis in games that should clear up the American race.
As seen with all option teams, without a dynamic quarterback who's comfortable with the system, the whole offense is broken. Army made a change to Cade Hellums, and the offense immediately picked up. Without Horvath in the lineup, Navy's offense never stood a chance against Notre Dame.
But the other side to this is a porous defense that allows way too many plays through the air and on the ground. Navy is a shockingly bad tackling team for a service academy, one that PFF ranks third-worst in the country. It also fields a subpar secondary. That combination has allowed seven 50-plus-yard plays this season, ranking in the bottom 25 nationally.
The Midshipmen's defense ranks 132nd in EPA per Pass allowed and 121st in opposing passer rating through nine games. That's come against a cast of run-heavy teams like Rice and Air Force.
Fortunately, Horvath is dynamic enough to almost single-handedly offset the long plays allowed by the defense. Over 21% of his rushes (31-of-145) have gone for 10-plus yards this season, and his 13 rushing touchdowns rank third in the country (regardless of position).
This is a team that doesn't mind getting into a track meet because it has track stars at multiple positions. Navy has a winning record when allowing 30+ points (3-2).
But the final three-game stretch is brutal for the current American Athletic Conference leaders, who close out against USF (+10.5), at Memphis (projected +9.5), and against arch-rival Army.
USF vs Navy NCAAF NCAAF Week 12 Pick
USF is spotted 10.5 points on the road in Annapolis this weekend.
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium is a tough place to play. Over the last four seasons, 58% of Navy's wins came at home and 50% of its losses came at home (a 5-0 record this year and 15-5 record since the start of 2022). Since 2015, Navy is 43-19 in Annapolis.
Considering the points Navy is getting here, it appears the market expects Horvath to play. This is a line akin to industry aggregate power ratings.
We've seen USF flash-fry opponents by converting turnovers (or scoring on the takeaways themselves) and by running an aggressive, high-tempo offense against teams with vulnerable defenses. This weekend, USF plays another vulnerable defense.
Few teams nationally allow as many explosive plays as Navy, especially through the air. The Midshipmen don't have the bodies in the secondary to keep up with USF's deep threats, even without Nimrod. In his absence, Keshaun Singleton has stepped into a more prominent role. At 6-foot-3, Jeremiah Koger presents a unique challenge with both size and speed (mid-4.5 guy).
Whether USF flash fries Navy or not, I expect a lot of points in a contest of who can find the most explosive plays.
When the Bulls run away with it, the defense is on the field long enough to allow points, especially late. If the Bulls don't run away with it, it's likely because Horvath is having a staple day and Navy is keeping up with the scoring.
In losses this season, USF was involved in games that scored 61 and 65 points. In conference wins, that number jumps to 79.5 points per game. USF is favored in a conference matchup, a previous indicator of a high-scoring game.
This'll be a fun one, and a long one, if you find yourselves in the stands of Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (like I will be!).
Pick: Over 66 or Better
