Boise, Idaho, welcomes a Mountain West matchup in Week 6 as the Boise State Broncos (3-1) take on the Utah State Aggies (1-3) at Albertsons Stadium. This game is set to kickoff at 7 p.m. ET on FS2.
Utah State lost by double digits on the road at Temple a week ago, 45-29. Meanwhile, Boise State enters with its lone loss coming against top-10 team, Oregon, on the road.
The Broncos are -27 on the spread while the total is set for 66.5 points. On the moneyline, the Broncos are -2500.
Boise State got the best of Utah State, 45-10, a year ago in Logan, Utah, but can the Aggies get their revenge and steal one on the road this year? Here's my Utah State vs. Boise State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Utah State vs Boise State Odds, Lines, Pick
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -110 | 65.5 -112 / -108 | +1600 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -110 | 65.5 -112 / -108 | -4000 |
- Utah State vs Boise State spread: Boise State -27.5
- Utah State vs Boise State over/under: 65.5 points
- Utah State vs Boise State moneyline: Boise State -4000
- Utah State vs Boise State pick: Boise State -26.5
Utah State vs Boise State Preview
Utah State Football
Nate Dreiling came over from New Mexico State this offseason to be the team's defensive coordinator. Instead, he finds himself as the interim head coach after the firing of Blake Anderson, who had led the Aggies in the previous three seasons.
Iowa transfer quarterback Spencer Petras leads the Utah State offense. The former Hawkeyes quarterback was injured early in the campaign, so they had turned to Bryson Barnes in his absence. However, Petras will be back under center on Saturday.
The Aggies are averaging 21 points per game on the season, but with Petras under center, they're putting up 32.5 points per game. This is a misleading comparison — given that Utah State played against Utah and USC in his absence — but I do think the Aggies are better with Petras as QB1.
The Aggies like a pass-heavy, short-throw offense that can get their top weapon — Jalen Royals — in space to help make big plays. The Aggies rank 31st in pass play rate while being 60th in pass explosiveness.
The key for this offense will be to find success early through the air, emptying the box for its highly successful ground game to find holes for chunk plays. Utah State ranks 66th in rush success rate and 11th in rushing explosiveness.
The Aggies will need these big plays to compete with a tough Boise State team.
The Aggies’ defense has been absolutely atrocious this year. That's not to say things can’t change under Coach Dreiling as he finds his footing, but I haven't seen enough out of this defense (36 PPG).
The defense ranks 126th in success rate and 126th in Havoc, so it doesn't get stops nor force turnovers. This will be a problem against an opponent that runs the football and doesn’t beat itself.
The Aggies do rank 11th in defensive explosiveness, which could be their only glimmer of hope in this one. They'll need to limit big plays and keep Heisman-hopeful Ashton Jeanty to three- and four-yard gains rather than 60-yard touchdown runs.
Boise State Football
Spencer Danielson leads the Broncos in his first full season as head coach. He finished last season with a 3-1 record, with the lone loss coming in the LA Bowl against UCLA.
This year, he's already caught up to what he did in 2023, sitting at 3-1 on this young season while the Broncos are ranked in the top 25.
He'll need to keep his team focused again at home this week because Boise State looks like it can fight for a playoff spot.
It's no secret that this Boise State offense has been very one dimensional, and for good reason.
The Broncos may have the best running back — or player in general — in the country on their roster. Jeanty has been carving up defenses with his hard running and phenomenal vision to hit the right holes at the right time.
He's averaging a whopping 10 yards per carry on 82 carries for 13 touchdowns in four games.
The formula is simple for the 41st-best and No. 1 explosive ground game: give the ball to Jeanty and stay out of his way.
He should once again find success this week, running all over the Aggies.
A key piece for Boise State to turn this one into a blowout will be sophomore Maddux Madsen. If he can make some key first down throws to help alleviate all of the pressure and attention that will be on Jeanty, that will only help the Broncos in the long run.
The Boise State defense hasn't been a great unit for Danielson, as it's allowed 30 points per game on the year. The Broncos struggle against the run, but they play decent pass defense (64th in success rate).
This is significant because Boise State is often playing with a lead when Jeanty is running all over teams, which I expect to be the case in this one.
Utah State vs Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah State and Boise State match up statistically:
Utah State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 78 |  |
| Line Yards | 23 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 90 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 102 | |
| Quality Drives | 106 | 70 | |
Boise State Offense vs. Utah State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 127 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 130 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 117 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 95 | 100 |
| PFF Coverage | 65 | 49 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 107 | 109 |
| Middle 8 | 129 | 43 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.6 (11) | 26.3 (51) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (106) | 54% (47) |
Utah State vs Boise State Prediction
Ultimately, this matchup comes down to Utah State’s defense matching up with the Boise State ground game, and I don't think that plays favorably for the Aggies.
Jeanty will continue his Heisman campaign, running wild at home, and I think the Boise State defense does enough to allow the Broncos to widen the gap and win big.
Give me the Broncos -26.5.
Pick: Boise State -26.5
How to Watch Utah State vs Boise State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS2 |
Utah State vs Boise State Betting Trends
- 67% of the bets and 78% of the money is on Utah State to cover the spread against Boise State.
- 76% of the bets are on the under to hit.
- Meanwhile, 65% of the money is on the over to hit.
Utah State vs Boise State Weather
