The Utah State Aggies will travel to Los Angeles to take on the USC Trojans on Saturday night at 11 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
The Trojans are currently 28.5-point favorites in a game with a total of 63.5 points (-110/-110). After a big win over LSU on Sunday, can USC keep the momentum rolling here?
Let’s dive into my Utah State vs. USC prediction and best bet for Saturday night’s matchup.
NCAAF Week 2: Utah State vs USC Pick, Prediction
- Pick: Over 63.5
My Utah State-USC best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Utah State vs USC Odds for College Football Saturday
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+29.5 -110 | 63.5 -110 / -110 | +1650 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-29.5 -110 | 63.5 -110 / -110 | -6600 |
Spread
Utah State +29.5 · USC -29.5
Total
63.5
Moneyline
Utah State ML +1650 · USC ML -6600
Utah State Aggies Football vs USC Trojans Football
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview
Utah State faced some massive changes this offseason, as head coach Blake Anderson was fired in the summer and replaced with Nate Dreiling, who had just come over from New Mexico State to serve as defensive coordinator.
In Week 1, the Aggies took on Robert Morris and won, 36-14, as 35.5-point home favorites. The Aggies did struggle for a bit, trailing by a score of 14-10 at halftime before dominating the second half.
Utah State posted an Offensive Success Rate in the 92nd percentile and an EPA per Play in the 80th percentile. On defense, it allowed Robert Morris to post a 66th-percentile Success Rate but -0.11 EPA per Play to rank in the 27th percentile.
Iowa transfer Spencer Petras started this game at quarterback and averaged -0.08 EPA per dropback before being injured in the second quarter. Bryson Barnes, formerly of Utah, came off the bench in relief and averaged 0.25 EPA per dropback while rushing for 88 yards.
Petras’ availability this weekend is unknown, but Barnes may be the better option to play anyway.
Starting running back Robert Briggs suffered a serious leg injury during a 55-yard run and will be sidelined for much of the season after racking up nine carries on 88 yards.
This offense did return nine starters this season, meaning it only needs to replace quarterback Cooper Legas and its left tackle. The rest of this unit is a veteran team that ranked 54th in SP+ offensively last season and could be dangerous.
Utah State’s defense was terrible last season, ranking 131st in SP+. The Aggies return seven starters to their stop unit and bring in a new staff on the defensive side, but this likely won’t be a strength for the team.
USC Trojans Betting Preview
USC pulled off a huge win on a national stage over LSU in Las Vegas on Sunday night.
This win boosted the status of new starting quarterback Miller Moss and the USC defense in the media. Now, some are looking at the Trojans as more serious contenders in the Big Ten.
USC posted an Offensive Success Rate in the 88th percentile and a yards-per-play mark in the 89th percentile.
It still didn’t run the ball well, averaging -0.21 EPA per rush, but that didn’t matter — it still looked good against an SEC defense.
However, this LSU stop unit was one of the worst in the league last year and finished the season ranked 52nd in SP+. Maybe this win did tell us a lot about what to expect from USC this season, but with so much change on both sides, it could say just as much about the Tigers.
USC had a lot to replace on offense this year with former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams being selected with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Moss looked the part last weekend as his replacement, throwing for 370 yards on 27-of-36 passing.
The Trojans also are replacing their top two rushers and top two receivers from last season, but they return the electric Zachariah Branch and three offensive linemen.
On defense, Lincoln Riley finally made the move to fire Alex Grinch as defensive coordinator and hire UCLA's D’Anton Lynn to replace him. Lynn inherits a defense that returns nine starters from last season but also ranked 105th in SP+, so it remains to be seen whether he can take this unit to another level.
How to Watch Utah State vs USC
| Location: | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
How to Bet Utah State vs USC Predictions, Picks
I’m not fully buying into USC having fully renovated its defense over the offseason. I do believe this unit will be better this season, but it was also facing an LSU offense that lost Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
Even with those departures, the Trojans allowed an 85th-percentile EPA per Dropback and a 77th-percentile Success Rate.
I think Utah State’s offense still looks like it could be a dangerous unit after its success last year. I’m banking on Barnes being the starting quarterback for this team since I believe his legs will add a crucial element that makes the offense more two-dimensional.
USC’s offense should still be a top-tier unit, and I don’t think it'll have too much of a problem with this Utah State defense. This Aggies’ defense was not good last year, and they weren’t dominant enough against Robert Morris to make me believe they've turned a corner either.
I think the total at this game is set too low at 63.5 points. It should be much higher in a game that could turn into a high-scoring affair if Utah State can keep up.
Pick: Over 63.5 (Play to Over 64.5)
Utah State-USC Betting Trends
- USC has landed 47% of the bets and 53% of the money.
- The under has been a massively public side, taking 96% of the tickets and 93% of the money.
NCAAF Week 2 Weather: Utah State-USC
