The UTEP Miners take on the Kennesaw State Owls in Kennesaw, Georgia, on Tuesday, Oct. 28. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Kennesaw State is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -370. UTEP, meanwhile, enters as a +10 underdog and is +290 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51 total points.
Here’s my UTEP vs. Kennesaw State prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, October 28.
UTEP Miners vs Kennesaw State Owls Prediction, Picks
- UTEP vs. Kennesaw State Pick: UTEP +10.5 (Play to +10)
My Kennesaw State vs. UTEP best bet is on the Miners to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UTEP vs Kennesaw State Odds, Lines, Spread
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| Kennesaw State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
- UTEP vs Kennesaw State Spread: Kennesaw State -10.5, UTEP +10.5
- UTEP vs Kennesaw State Over/Under: 51.5
- UTEP vs Kennesaw State Moneyline: UTEP ML +320, Kennesaw State ML -410
UTEP vs Kennesaw State NCAAF Preview
UTEP Miners
UTEP has struggled in what we thought would be the big year for Scotty Walden and this Miners offense.
The Malachi Nelson experiment has not panned out, as the UTEP offense scored 70 combined points against FBS competition in five games with Nelson at the helm. The passing offense was sporadic, and the turnovers plagued this team game after game.
However, this offense has taken off since Skyler Locklear was thrust into action, and I expect continued improvement as the season continues to progress.
The UTEP defense has played well this season, ranking 17th in Finishing Drives allowed and 24th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
UTEP has held every conference opponent to under four yards per carry, and the front has secured 54 tackles for loss and 19 sacks this season.
The Miners grade out as the top tackling team in CUSA, per PFF, and the pass rush should put some pressure on Kennesaw State's quarterbacks in this one. I expect the UTEP defense to show up here.
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State might be the biggest surprise team in all of FBS this season. The Owls come in winners of five straight and are now the betting favorite to win the conference.
The Owls offense has taken off behind quarterbacks Dexter Williams II and Amari Odom, who have split duties but have combined to throw for 1,564 yards and 10 touchdowns.
They've also added a rushing element that has frustrated opponents over the last five weeks.
The defense has given up some yards, but it bows up in the red zone and on fourth downs. The Owls have allowed 405 yards per game and rank 91st nationally in terms of third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert on 40% of attempts.
This defense has the challenge of containing the hot hand against a well-rested group coming off the bye week.
UTEP vs Kennesaw State NCAAF Pick to Bet
This line at Kennesaw -13.5 and has been bet down before settling around 10.
The Owls have been a great team this year, but I'm not sure I want to lay two scores with them here. This will be the largest favorite role they've have ever had at the FBS level, so I'm going to grab those points with UTEP at +10.5.
Coming off the bye week with some extra time to get Locklear some reps should make this UTEP offense look a lot more potent. I expect UTEP to build on its victory over Sam Houston in its first win over an FBS opponent this season.
The offense saw some explosiveness in the run game, and Locklear completed 21-of-26 passes while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt.
UTEP ranks 47th nationally in EPA Per Rush and 17th in rushing explosiveness. Well, Kennesaw State has been prone to getting beaten on the ground.
Its last opponent, FIU, gashed the Owls for 222 yards rushing on six yards per carry. Kennesaw ranks just 116th in rush explosiveness allowed and 117th in EPA Per Rush allowed, so UTEP should be able to run the ball with Ashten Emory and Hahsaun Wilson.
Locklear has protected the ball better, and UTEP should have success getting into the red zone, where they were much improved in terms of efficiency last week. I expect solid execution and touchdowns after scoring on 5-of-6 trips since the quarterback change.
Defensively, UTEP has been great at preventing pass explosives. The Owls feast on busting big plays through the air, but the Miners haven't allowed 250 yards passing to an FBS opponent this season.
Gabriel Benyard is the primary deep threat for KSU, but UTEP's pass rush should force Williams to throw it a split-second early, which will disrupt the timing of these routes.
UTEP’s red-zone defense has been brilliant all season, allowing touchdowns on just 48% of trips inside the 20-yard line.
Kennesaw State is used to scoring touchdowns in the red zone, which has been a key to its offensive success during its five-game win streak.
I think the Miners defense can do enough to prevent touchdowns in the red zone and force KSU into fourth-down decisions when down close.
I like how this UTEP team has competed the last two weeks. It should do enough to keep this one within the number on Tuesday night. Grab those points.
Pick: UTEP +10.5 (Play to +10)
UTEP vs Kennesaw State Betting Trends to Know
