Texas State and UTSA meet in San Marcos, Texas, on Saturday afternoon in a battle between in-state rivals.
The Bobcats registered an unimpressive win in Week 1 against Lamar, holding on to a late lead to secure the 34-27 victory.
Meanwhile, the Roadrunners also failed to cover the spread in their opening triumph against Kennesaw State, which was the start of a new era at quarterback for the program.
This was a seven-point game last season, but with personnel changes, I expect the result to flip this time around. Here's my UTSA vs. Texas State prediction.
UTSA vs Texas State Prediction
UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas State Bobcats Odds
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -108 | 58.5 -112o / -108u | -102 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -112 | 58.5 -112o / -108u | -118 |
- UTSA vs Texas State Point Spread: UTSA +1 (-108) · Texas State -1 (-112)
- UTSA vs Texas State Total: Over/Under 58.5
- UTSA vs Texas State Moneyline: UTSA -102 · Texas State -118
UTSA vs Texas State Preview
UTSA Betting Preview: Can McCown Step Up?
After winning Conference USA in back-to-back seasons, there was plenty of momentum for UTSA heading into the American Athletic Conference. The Roadrunners didn’t disappoint.
They won their first seven AAC games before falling at No. 18 Tulane to get knocked out of contention for the title. Such success has become the norm under coach Jeff Traylor.
The Roadrunners are 35-20 all-time under Traylor and 15-4 against teams from the state of Texas. Ironically enough, he coached Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne during his senior year at Gilmer High School.
Another key to the program's recent success has been the play of veteran quarterback Frank Harris, who was a five-year starter at UTSA. However, Harris moved on over the offseason, leaving a huge hole on offense.
Owen McCown started in Week 1 and passed for 340 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for another score and will need another big showing here to keep the Roadrunners on track this season.
Texas State Betting Preview: New QB, Same Offensive Success?
If Kinne puts together another solid season at Texas State, he'll be a popular name in the offseason and could be looking for a move to a bigger school. However, it may be difficult to match last season’s success.
In 2023, the Bobcats set 19 team records for their time as an FBS program, with 12 of those coming on offense. They capped it off by winning the school’s first-ever bowl game — the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl against Rice.
The momentum should carry over into this year as Kinne brings back a lot of players from the banner season. Texas State returns nine starters on both offense and defense, and the only staff change was at defensive coordinator.
Similar to UTSA, the one big change in the offseason came at quarterback. TJ Finley transferred to WKU, but Kinne brought in 2023 Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud from James Madison.
McCloud's knowledge of the conference and ability to run should pair well with Kinne’s offense. This will be his first big test following the move.
UTSA vs Texas State Pick & Prediction
This is one of the best games on the Week 2 card as it features two teams looking to win their conference and sneak into the College Football Playoff. The close spread reflects just how competitive this one should be, but I do give a slight edge to the home team
So, my best bet is to take Texas State on the moneyline at -125 odds or better.
To me, this game ultimately comes down to two things, starting with the changes at quarterback.
Harris has been everything for UTSA in recent years. His passing ability has been important, but so has his ability to elude pressure and make plays out of nothing when the pocket collapses. I’m just not sure if McCown is ready to make that step here on the road.
On the other side, Texas State brought back everyone, and I love how Kinne can fill holes and add quality depth from the transfer portal.
As for the Roadrunners, it's important to mention that Traylor prioritizes conference play. He is willing to rotate a lot more than most to start campaigns before settling in on his key players once he hits league action.
This stands out in the betting markets as UTSA is 3-7 against the spread in games played in August or September since 2022.
I was high on Texas State coming into the year, and I like the Bobcats at home to pick up a huge victory.
Pick: Texas State ML (Play to -125)
How to Watch UTSA vs Texas State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | UFCU Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
UTSA vs Texas State Betting Trends
- UTSA are 1-0 in their last 5 games.
- UTSA are 0-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of UTSA's last 1 games
Texas St are 1-0 in their last 5 games.
Texas St are 0-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Texas State's last 1 games
