The Vanderbilt Commodores (2-1) will travel to Columbia to take on the Missouri Tigers (3-0) in Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Missouri is a 20-point home favorite in a game with an over/under of 53.5 points.
The Tigers have climbed to No. 7 in the AP Top 25 Poll and are looking to keep building their resume toward a potential College Football Playoff berth.
We're still early in this season and have yet to learn much about these teams. However, I believe we'll learn a lot more about each of these teams this weekend, which leads me to what I think should be a valuable bet.
Let’s dive into my Vanderbilt vs. Missouri predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Odds, Lines, Spread, Pick
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -108 | 52 -110 / -110 | +700 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -112 | 52 -110 / -110 | -1100 |
- Spread: Vanderbilt +19.5 (-108) · Missouri -19.5 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 52
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +700 · Missouri -1100
- Pick:Over 52.5
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Preview
Vanderbilt Football
Following Vanderbilt’s upset win over Virginia Tech in Week 1 and its drubbing of Alcorn State in Week 2, things were looking up for the Commodores this season.
Well, that came crashing back to earth when they lost to Georgia State on the road last weekend. Now, expectations have come back down for this program.
However, looking at that game a bit closer shows that Vanderbilt was closer than it appears. Bill Connelly’s post-game win expectancy numbers show this as an expected 2.1-point win for the Commodores despite them losing by four. In this game, they had a 71st-percentile Offensive Success Rate compared to a 39th-percentile output from the Panthers.
This week, they'll look to rebound against a Missouri team that ranks seventh in the country in the AP Poll — and I think there’s some reason to believe they could get right.
Through three games, the Commodores rank 23rd in Offensive Success Rate and 39th in Finishing Drives while also sitting 22nd in Passing Success Rate and 30th in Passing PPA.
Vanderbilt runs the ball at the 18th-highest rate in the country, ranking 37th in Rushing Success Rate and 46th in Rushing PPA.
Diego Pavia has been a revelation at quarterback for a program that has lacked exciting options for so long. He's averaging 0.20 EPA per dropback this season when passing but is also the team's leading rusher with 46 carries for 228 yards and a touchdown.
Pavia is averaging 0.15 EPA per rush and owns a 48% Success Rate on the ground this season.
The defense ranked 124th in SP+ last season and is now 96th. It's faced a relatively easy slate of opposing offenses but ranks 37th in Defensive Success Rate.
However, the 'Dores have failed to improve in a few key areas. They're just 127th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 108th in explosiveness allowed, which may come back to bite them this weekend.
Vanderbilt’s rushing defense has held up well, ranking 12th in Success Rate and 22nd in PPA Allowed. However, the passing defense has still been a mess, coming into the game at 83rd in Success Rate, 99th in explosiveness allowed and 68th in Passing PPA Allowed.
Missouri Football
The Tigers thoroughly dominated Murray State and Buffalo at home over the first two weeks of the season, winning by a combined score of 89-0. In Week 3, they finally got a tougher opponent and held off Boston College by a score of 27-21.
In this game, the Tigers had just a 33rd-percentile Offensive Success Rate but a 66th-percentile EPA per play. They averaged 0.45 EPA per dropback and 6.14 yards per play but failed to get anything going on the ground with just a 25th-percentile EPA per Rush.
Missouri’s offense has become known for its explosive passing attack, which is in for a good matchup against this Vanderbilt defense.
However, it has not shown up much this season, so it may need to get this unit functioning in the same way it did toward the end of last season.
The Tigers have faced an easier slate of offenses to this point, and it has shown through their dominance on the defensive side of the ball.
They rank fourth in Defensive Success Rate and 21st in Finishing Drives. The Tigers are good against both the run and the pass, ranking 10th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 12th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
I had my concerns about this unit coming into the season with the amount of talent they were losing, as well as their defensive coordinator, but Mizzou hasn't been concerning on the field quite yet.
Missouri vs Vanderbilt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Vanderbilt match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Missouri Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 48 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 5 | |
Missouri Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 13 |  |
| Line Yards | 36 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 67 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 127 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 72 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 92 | 4 |
| PFF Coverage | 64 | 53 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 3 | 13 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 16 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.3 (118) | 27.5 (63) |
| Rush Rate | 66% (15) | 51% (50) |
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Pick & Prediction
The biggest mismatch on the field this weekend should clearly be Vanderbilt’s defense trying to stop Luther Burden III and Missouri’s offense.
The Tigers have one of the most efficient units in college football, and nothing that Vanderbilt has shown defensively this season would lead me to believe that it can stop this passing attack.
As for the other side of this matchup, I think Pavia and this Commodores offense may have something for Missouri. While the defensive metrics for Mizzou are good to this point, I believe that's largely due to the opponents they've faced.
Boston College put together a solid offensive day last weekend, and I think that Vanderbilt has the potential to do the same.
I’m not calling for Vanderbilt to win this game outright or possibly even cover because its defense could just lay an egg here.
However, I do think the Commodores can score enough to push this game over the total of 52.5 that's currently set for this gamer.
Pick: Over 52.5 (Play to 53.5)
How to Watch Vanderbilt vs Missouri Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Betting Trends
- Missouri has landed 58% of the bets and generated 65% of the money.
- The under has taken 48% of the tickets and 52% of the cash.
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Weather
