You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this year, we're rolling with a duo of Power 5 schools hosting Group of Five foes in prime time — one on Friday and one on Saturday.
Let's dive into our Week 1 college football predictions for Temple vs. Oklahoma and New Mexico State vs. Arizona.
Week 1 College Football Predictions
Collin Wilson: Oklahoma -42 vs. Temple
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+42 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +5000 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-42 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -100000 |
Oklahoma absolutely crushed Arkansas State, 73-0, in the season opener a season ago. Why can't it do it again against another FBS bottom-feeder to open 2024?
This is the Sooners' first game as a team in the SEC, and they're going to want to make a statement against one of the worst teams in FBS.
Quarterback Jackson Arnold, a former five-star recruit, is going to look to prove his believers right after putting up a rough stat line in his lone start in the Alamo Bowl against Arizona last season. While he threw for 361 yards on 57.8% passing, he threw three interceptions compared to only two touchdowns.
However, in his first action of the season against the Red Wolves, he went 11-for-11 for 114 yards and a touchdown.
Expect Arnold to get that bad taste from the bowl game out of his mouth against a Temple defense that posted an FBS-low five takeaways in 2023.
It's also worth noting that the Sooners' offensive line needs every snap it can get in these first three games.
Oklahoma heads to Knoxville to take on Tennessee on Sept. 21 in a game Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel — a former OU quarterback — has circled on his calendar. Oklahoma needs to have things figured out up front before then, so I expect the starters to play throughout most of the game.
Give me the Sooners to start their SEC era with a massive victory in Norman.
Stuckey: Arizona -31 vs. New Mexico
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+31 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +2500 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-31 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
New Mexico played last week, and it's well-documented that teams playing in Week 0 don't have an advantage.
What happens when a team has to play in Week 0 and the other team doesn't?
- New Mexico had to prepare for another opponent. Arizona didn't.
- The Lobos had to put some things on tape. Now, the Wildcats can adjust their game plan as needed.
FBS teams playing their season opener against an opponent that has already played have covered at a 60-34 ATS (63.8%) clip since 2005, including 4-1 against the closing number last season.
On paper, you might say UNM's 35-31 loss to Montana State was a valiant effort. But remember, the market kept betting against the Lobos against an FCS team that had pieces to replace for a reason.
New Mexico got dominated statistically. It gave up 567 yards and benefited from two scoop-and-scores, pointing to some turnover luck.
Bronco Mendenhall will probably get it turned around at some point, but it's going to take some time.
This New Mexico defense doesn't look like it's going to put up much resistance, so Arizona should score at will here.
There are questions on this Arizona roster, including depth on the defensive line and wide receiver outside of Tetairoa McMillan. Plus, the Wildcats have to replace a pro at left tackle.
However, I don't think New Mexico can exploit any of those issues.
The Wildcats also return quarterback Noah Fifita, who was great to bettors a season ago. The Fifita-McMillan connection should prove to be dominant against a porous Lobos defense.
I like Arizona to lay down the hammer here. New head coach Brent Brennan will want to put on a show, and he should be able to name the score.
I'm going back to my 'Cats in Week 1.
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