Welcome to Week 12 of the college football season. Another full Saturday slate means it's time to look at our favorite favorite bets for Nov. 16.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
This week, there are plenty of intriguing favorites on the board this week.
Collin will get things started with a Big Ten matchup between Penn State and Purdue, while I'll head over to the Big 12 for Baylor and West Virginia.
Let's take a look at our Week 12 college football predictions and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Collin Wilson: Penn State -28.5 vs. Purdue
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -7000 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
I'm going with Penn State all the way here. I'll take the beauty pageant contestants in this overdog for the remainder of the year.
Look at beauty pageant teams trying to earn style points to impress the College Football Playoff committee last week:
- No. 2 Ohio State over Purdue, 45-0
- No. 5 Texas over Florida, 49-17
- No. 6 Penn State over Washington, 35-6
- No. 10 Notre Dame over Florida State, 52-3
Purdue gave up 50 points to the offenses of Illinois and Wisconsin. Penn State can do the same here.
There also aren't any analytics that say Purdue can put up any kind of resistance against Penn State.
The Nittany Lions sit top-10 in Rushing Success Rate and Passing Success Rate, while the Boilermakers rank 85th and 129th in those categories defensively. It's a similar story on the other side of the ball.
This number is steaming, and I'll stop at -31.
Stuckey: Baylor -1 vs. West Virginia
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 59.5 -108o / -112u | -115 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 59.5 -108o / -112u | -105 |
I'm not sure many realize how well Baylor is playing of late. After a blowout loss at Iowa State, the Bears have won three straight and will come in fresh off the bye week for their trip to Morgantown.
Keep in mind that their two losses prior to Iowa State came against the two teams sitting atop the Big 12 standings in Colorado and BYU — both by one possession with the former coming in overtime after the Buffaloes completed a Hail Mary as time expired to end regulation.
Meanwhile, the Mountaineers will return home after a grueling two-game road trip that saw them win back-to-back one-possession games against a reeling Arizona team and Cincinnati.
While impressive on the surface, the 'Neers had no business winning last week in Cincinnati. They simply benefited from extreme turnover luck in a game they finished with 15 fewer first downs and under 250 total yards of offense.
That's 31 points on drives that totaled 123 yards. Talk about luck!
More importantly, this is a favorable matchup for Baylor.
Regardless of who's under center between Nicco Marchiol and Garrett Greene, West Virginia is a run-first offense. Everything flows from the ground game.
Well, that plays right into the strength of Baylor's defense, which ranks in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate and has allowed only 3.8 yards per attempt in 2024.
On the other side of the ball, Baylor's season-long rushing metrics aren't stellar, but it's been much better since making a change at left tackle and with the recent emergence of freshman back Bryson Washington.
While the Bears have had more balance of late, WVU's stout run defense will certainly make things difficult in the trenches.
However, quarterback Sawyer Robertson and company can fully exploit a horrid West Virginia secondary that ranks 130th in coverage, per PFF, and 133rd in EPA per Pass.
There's no reason why Baylor shouldn't move the ball efficiently through the air all afternoon.
