Welcome to Week 12.
I don't have any Noon spots this week, but I have four spots circled in the Afternoon window.
Read on for my Week 12 NCAAF Picks.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Michigan State +7.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UCF +24 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Texas State +4.5 |
  | 4:30 p.m. | North Carolina +6.5 |
Michigan State +7.5 vs. Penn State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
It's pretty amazing that both of these teams started 3-0 and then dropped six straight to start Big 10 play.
While that's maybe not too surprising for the Spartans, it certainly is for a Penn State squad that started the season ranked No. 2.
This particular bet is almost entirely a pure spot fade of Penn State following a heartbreaking loss to undefeated Indiana in the final minute last Saturday.
The Nittany Lions clearly put forth an all-in effort in what became their Super Bowl in a lost season. That result also came after road games against Iowa and Ohio State.
Can the Nittany Lions get up off the mat for a fourth straight week for a pretty meaningless game in East Lansing against Michigan State? I'll make them prove they can win by a margin here.
Meanwhile, Michigan State will benefit from coming off a much-needed bye week. Keep in mind this has been one of the most injury-ravaged Power Conference teams in the country, so I'd expect them to be in much better shape injury-wise following the two-week break.
The Spartans did even start to get a bit healthier before the bye, which led to some more promising results, including an absolute highway robbery loss at Minnesota in overtime, in which they out-gained the Gophers 467-301.
That was the best the offense has looked all year, with Alessio Milivojevic getting his first career start at quarterback. He averaged 11.1 yards per attempt (20-for-28, 311), which is something Aidan Chiles has never done in his career.
While Jonathan Smith has yet to name a starter for this week, I'd imagine the freshman gets the nod once again this week. However, I wouldn't rule out some packages or Chiles throughout the game.
The spot is priced in a bit, but I'm still okay taking over a touchdown against a Penn State team that could come out completely flat out of the gates, while Smith should have a plus script coming out of the bye.
If Michigan State can jump on the Nittany Lions early, will they show enough fight in a season that has spiraled out of control? We shall see.
For what it's worth, Jonathan Smith-led teams are 31-21 ATS as an underdog, including 5-0 this season. His teams are also 10-2 ATS as an underdog with extra time to prepare.
Pick: Michigan State +7.5 or Better
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UCF +24 at Texas Tech
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Getting in front of this Texas Tech train is certainly not for the faint of heart, but I do show value from a pure numbers perspective on the Knights.
Plus, I'm not sure we get a maximum effort from the Red Raiders following their dismantling of BYU in last week's highly anticipated Big 12 showdown for first place.
More importantly, the Texas Tech offense is not firing on all cylinders at the moment. I believe a lot of that has to do with the health of quarterback Behren Morton, who continues to push through a hairline fracture in his fibula.
He was clearly hobbled last week against the Cougars and will be extremely limited in practice this week while wearing a boot. While I do expect him to play, I doubt he'll be close to 100%.
Plus, I'd imagine Texas Tech has to play it cautiously with him, especially with backup Will Hammond injured. He likely won't scramble much at all (which is essential since one of UCF's prominent warts on defense is containing running quarterbacks), and Tech could go more run-heavy and/or pull him out with a lead sooner than usual.
All of those potential outcomes would help the large road pup that has featured a borderline top-30 defense this season.
I can't believe I'm saying that in mid-November with Alex Grinch at the helm, but I have to give credit where credit is due. UCF doesn't allow much through the air, and Tech doesn't boast the most deadly rushing attack. The UCF defense can hold its own here.
Now, how will UCF move the ball? That's a great question, especially given the uncertainty about who will even start at quarterback for the Knights.
Per my ratings, Tech has a top-five defense nationally in large part due to an absolutely lethal defensive line. I doubt UCF will have much time for dropback passing, so it will have to rely on its ground game, with the quarterback playing a significant role.
There aren't many warts on this Tech defensive profile, but mobile quarterbacks have had a modicum of success, and teams can hit occasional rush explosives.
I also don't mind the under in a game where I believe points will come at a premium, which makes the large underdog even more intriguing.
Keep in mind, this UCF team just closed as only a field goal underdog at Baylor a few weeks ago. While Texas Tech is in a different class than the Bears, the gap certainly isn't 21 points, in my opinion.
Can UCF get to 14? I think so, mostly in garbage time. And that should be all it takes against a potentially lethargic Red Raiders squad playing with a limited quarterback who can't suffer any injury setbacks ahead of postseason play.
Tech has bigger fish to fry this season, so I'm not sure how concerned they will be with blowing out a UCF squad that I expect to show up here with bowl aspirations still in play.
Pick: UCF +24 or Better
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Texas State +4.5 at Southern Miss
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Southern Miss will host Texas State in a game with massive implications for both teams in the Sun Belt East division.
Oh, wait, never mind. Scratch that. I forgot Texas State has been cursed all year and sits at 0-5 in league play.
The Bobcats deserved to lose against JMU, but take a look at their other four losses:
- By one at Arkansas State (521-398 yardage edge; missed XP followed by last-second TD)
- OT vs. Troy (574-458 yardage edge; missed game-winning field goal after blowing 21-point lead)
- Double OT vs. Marshall (558-466 yardage edge; gave up last-minute TD in regulation)
- By three vs. Louisiana (528-384 yardage edge; failed on multiple two-point attempts)
Yup, you read that all of that correctly.
Four losses have come by three or fewer or in overtime, while they've out-gained those four opponents by nearly 500 total yards (2,181-1,706). They've also been pretty unlucky in several different high-variance categories.
The offense continues to move the ball at will on opposing defenses. For the season, the Bobcats rank 15th nationally in yards per play (6.6).
However, the defense has let GJ Kinne's group down week after week, allowing opponents to average six yards per play (106th nationally). For reference, Southern Miss sits at 5.9 and 5.0, respectively.
From a net yards perspective, there's not much difference despite Texas State (which has a slight EPA per Play margin advantage) playing the much more difficult schedule.
That lines up with where I rate these Sun Belt foes, as I don't see much difference between them on a neutral field. Texas State has just been snakebit, while the opposite has held for the Golden Eagles, who sit all alone atop the division standings at 5-0.
But let's take a closer look at their conference wins:
- 38-22 over App State (out-gained 470-389; Mountaineers had three separate 1H drives of 65-plus yards end in an interception, including a 99-yard pick six that actually wasn't an interception. Then, App State lost its QB to injury for the 2H)
- 38-35 at Georgia Southern (421-395 yardage edge)
- 22-10 over Louisiana (371-356 yardage edge)
- 49-21 over a decimated ULM team (445-312 yardage edge)
- 27-21 over Arkansas State (528-456 yardage edge)
In their five Sun Belt games, they out-gained their opponents (none of which have a winning record) by 165 total yards (2,154-1,989).
If we include Texas State's blowout loss to JMU, the Bobcats have out-gained their five league opponents by almost double that amount (316) — and the Golden Eagles didn't have to play the class of the league in the Dukes.
Additionally, Southern Miss had a whopping 18 takeaways (and a +12 turnover margin) in those five victories, including six last week in a one-possession win over Arkansas State. That's not sustainable.
Don't be surprised if Texas State (which has a -7 turnover margin in 2025) gets a few key bounces on Saturday in Hattiesburg.
It's worth noting that Texas State did receive suspensions following a brawl at the end of last week's game. Only two of those are really impactful, with both coming on the defensive side of the ball. However, it's not like the defense can get any worse.
Both offenses should find plenty of success throughout in a game that will likely come down to which team has the ball last. If that's indeed how it plays out, I'm happy to take the points with the road dog.
You might worry that the Bobcats have some quit in them after all of the close losses, but I haven't seen that at all. I expect them to show up here against the first-place Golden Eagles, especially since they are likely to make a bowl if they can pull off the minor upset.
Lastly, while I expect Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton to play, he tweaked his knee in last week's victory and didn't look entirely right after returning to the game.
Ultimately, this is just a perfect buy-low/sell-high spot in a matchup of one unlucky team vs. a very fortunate one.
Pick: Texas State +4 or Better
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North Carolina +6.5 at Wake Forest
4:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Wake Forest has raced out to a surprise 6-3 start in large part due to an extremely stingy defense that ranks in the top-30 nationally adjusted for opponent.
However, the offense continues to struggle for a group that ranks outside the top-100 nationally.
The Demon Deacons still rotate quarterbacks and have no reliable downfield passing attack. They also have one of the worst red-zone offenses in the country. Despite those issues, the defense has helped them prevail in four of their five one-possession games.
With that said, without some timely stops, a miraculous 52-yard game-winning field goal against SMU, and Virginia's quarterback going down, this could easily be a 4-5 football team heading into the final three weeks of the season.
Keep in mind, Virginia out-gained the Demon Deacons last week 327-203 but couldn't overcome a -3 turnover margin, a punt return touchdown, and an early injury to Chandler Morris.
For reference, North Carolina out-gained the Hoos (with a healthy Morris) 353-259 in a one-point overtime loss in which they came up one inch short on a game-winning two-point conversion attempt.
If not for a pair of fumbles at the goal line in October, the Heels would be winners of four straight in large part due to their defense, which has been playing at an unbelievable level over the past month.
If we flipped just one or two plays against Cal and Virginia, North Carolina would be coming into this game at 6-3 with much more buzz after a slow start to the season.
If that were the case, this line would be closer to a field goal, which is where I think it should be. There's just not much separating these teams at the moment.
Plus, points will be at an extreme premium in this game, as evidenced by a super low total of 38.5
I guess we shouldn't be surprised Bill Belichick has figured out the defensive side of the ball. He's only one of the greatest defensive minds in football history.
Bill and the UNC defensive staff (headlined by his son) made several mid-season schematic tweaks up front that have really paid dividends.
Look no further than the past four games, where the Heels have held opposing rushing attacks to 288 total yards on 132 attempts. That's a ridiculous 2.2 yards per attempt.
Now, that does include sacks, but those are worth mentioning, as the Heels have accumulated 20 total in those four games. The defensive line is playing out of its mind, while the linebackers and safeties are cleaning up everything at the second level.
If there were one weakness on the defense at the moment, it would be at cornerback, especially without the injured Thad Dixon. However, that's not really a concern against Wake Forest's anemic aerial attack.
UNC can shut down the Wake Forest rushing attack, which essentially completely neuters the Demon Deacons on offense.
Now, it won't be easy for the UNC offense, either. This will likely turn into a complete rock fight, in which case I want the points in my pocket.
For what it's worth, I also split this wager with Wake Forest Team Total Under 22.5 points. Without flukes, I don't see the Demon Deacons clearing three touchdowns after scoring a combined 29 offensive points over their past three contests.
Ultimately, this is a good opportunity to sell high on the Demon Deacons after a bit of a lucky result over Virginia, while still investing in a UNC defense that I believe remains undervalued in the market.
Pick: North Carolina +6 or Better
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