Before we close the book on Week 12, I have three spots circled for the night slate.
I'll be fading the red-hot Chanticleers at 6 p.m., before sweating out Washington and Wyoming in the late-night slate.
Read on for my Week 12 NCAAF Predictions.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | Georgia Southern -2.5 |
  | 10 p.m. | Washington State -7 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Wyoming +4.5 |
Georgia Southern -2.5 vs. Coastal Carolina
6 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Coastal Carolina has had one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds we have seen in 2025.
Over the first three weeks, the Chants looked completely dysfunctional, but have since won five of six to give themselves a chance in the Sun Belt East, where they sit one game behind James Madison (and host the Dukes in the final week of the regular season).
Samari Collier has helped spark this recent run after taking over under center due to a plethora of injuries at the position. The more mobile Collier actually started the season as the fourth-string signal caller.
With that said, I believe it's time to sell high on Coastal.
First off, let's take a look at its five FBS wins on the season:
- South Alabama (294-420, +3, 1-3)
- UL Monroe (378-315, +1, 1-4)
- App State (410-410, 0, 2-3)
- Marshall (410-432, +3, 1-3)
- Georgia State (444-423, +2, 2-5)
Not exactly a murderer's row with five teams that have a combined 14-31 record (31.1%). Additionally, Coastal has actually been out-gained in those five contests 2000-1936, but has benefited immensely from turnover luck and fourth-down variance. In those five victories, the Chants had a +9 turnover margin, while their opponents only converted 7 of 18 fourth-down attempts.
That's simply unsustainable, so don't be surprised if Georgia Southern gets a few bounces.
The Eagles do have a pathetic defense that doesn't do anything well. However, this Coastal offense still can't do much through the air, making this a much easier prep for a putrid run defense.
Coastal will still undoubtedly put some points on the board, but I trust Georgia Southern to match score for score, then some. The Chants really want to take away explosive plays, but that's not really applicable against the dink-and-dunk Eagles offensive attack led by quarterback JC French. The Eagles should also get whatever they want on the ground with OJ Arnold and company behind an offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage from start to finish.
It's also worth noting that Georgia Southern has played the more difficult schedule (with its only home loss coming by three points to first-place Southern Miss) and has two extra days to prepare for this matchup after playing on Thursday night last week.
Additionally, Coastal will be without its starting center and best linebacker.
Ultimately, I believe Coastal's recent run against a bunch of junk (with a lot of help) got this spread under a field goal in a game that I think should be sitting at around -3.5.
I'll take the better team at home laying 2.5.
Pick: Georgia Southern -3 or Better
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Washington State -7 vs. Louisiana Tech
10 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Louisiana Tech finds itself in one of the worst situations of the entire season.
After a devastating one-point loss at Delaware in which the Hens scored twice in the final 30 seconds after recovering an onside kick, Louisiana Tech now must travel all the way across the country from Newark to Pullman for a non-conference game against a Cougars team coming off of a much-needed bye following four road games (including two out east) between Sep. 27 and Nov. 1.
That extra time off may also allow a few key contributors to return from injury along both the offensive and defensive lines.
That's as vicious as it gets.
I'm not sure how locked in the Bulldogs will be for this matchup in the middle of league play — similar to what we saw from Toledo when it had to fly out west and then take a long bus ride to the Palouse in the middle of MAC play a few weeks ago in a 28-7 loss.
To make matters worse, Louisiana Tech lost starting quarterback Blake Baker to a season-ending ACL injury that he suffered last Saturday against Delaware. As a result, we will see Evan Bullock and likely more run packages for Trey Kukuk, but Washington State has excelled all season at slowing down mobile quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Washington State has been a different team since Zevi Eckhaus took over at quarterback. I'm still not sure what the Cougars were doing under center over the first month of the season. Pass protection remains a glaring issue (115th in Pressure Rate allowed), but Louisiana Tech doesn't generate much pressure (111th).
The Wazzu defense has also continued to improve as the season has progressed, holding its past five opponents to 13.2 points per game. That includes a pair of near upsets on the road against Ole Miss and Virginia — neither of which eclipsed 24 points.
Keep in mind the Cougars have also played a significantly more difficult schedule this season (54th vs. 128th, per Sagarin).
This is one of the toughest trips you will see, with astronomical home-field advantage.
I've had this spot circled since the Summer and am fine with anything at a touchdown or better.
I'd expect a focused effort from the Cougars, who essentially need this game for any shot at getting to a bowl in head coach Jimmy Rogers' first season.
Pick: Washington State -7 or Better
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Wyoming +4.5 at Fresno State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
I've been waiting to fade Fresno State for two weeks following its shocking road upset over Boise State.
However, to me, that had more to do with the Broncos collapsing after they lost starting quarterback Maddux Madsen to an early injury. Boise also finished with a -3 turnover margin and went just 1-3 on fourth down attempts, which didn't help matters. After all, Fresno only finished with 224 total yards of offense.
Coming out of the bye week three weeks ago, Fresno State made a quarterback change, replacing EJ Warner with Carson Conklin. The results haven't been pretty. In two starts, Conklin has gone 30-for-63 passing (47.6%) for 217 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions (0-4 BTT-TWP ratio). Among all FBS starters, his completion percentage (47.6%) and yards per attempt (3.4) against FBS competition would rank dead last.
Don't expect Fresno to get much of anything through the air against a very stingy Wyoming pass defense.
The Wyoming offense isn't anything to write home about, but there are reasons for optimism. The Cowboys switched play callers at the end of October, which could lead to some new wrinkles and better looks coming out of the bye. They also got healthier at tight end (getting Jake Gyllenborg back is important) and made a much-needed change at right tackle that has paid dividends in recent weeks.
In what should be a low-scoring affair, I'll happily take the points with the Pokes and fade the Bulldogs (who have two league wins by less than three points) following their upset win over an injury-ravaged Boise State team.
Ultimately, I don't see much separating these two Mountain West foes.
Pick: Wyoming +3.5 or Better
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