We begin the Week 3 slate with three Saturday afternoon college football picks, featuring Utah vs. Utah State.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 3, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 3-3 (50%)
- Overall: 102-73-1 (58.3%)
Week 3 College Football Picks: Saturday Afternoon Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Central Michigan +20 |
  | 12 p.m. | Tulsa +20.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Under 45.5 |
Central Michigan +20 at Illinois
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
This one is a pretty simple handicap.
Not only do I show value in this number, but Illinois also finds itself in a tough situational spot after upsetting ranked Kansas in front of a packed house with a trip to Lincoln to take on ranked Nebraska to begin Big Ten play next weekend.
I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois comes out a bit flat for this early kick against a MAC school.
Illinois also got pretty lucky in the turnover department (and on a muffed punt) last weekend, finishing with a net +16 in turnover EPA. The Illini benefited from a pick-six on a wide receiver screen in the final minute of the half that completely flipped the game on its head.
Conversely, CMU had a -6 turnover margin in a 52-16 loss at FIU despite outgaining the Panthers by 30 yards.
I believe those two results are driving some value this week on the Chips, who catch the Illini in a prime letdown spot. Hopefully, Joe Labas doesn't throw five picks again this week!
I'm also still not fully sold on this Illinois roster. The late addition of wide receiver Zakhari Franklin — the active NCAA leader in receiving yards — definitely provides the downfield passing attack with more juice to complement a solid rushing attack, but there are plenty of other holes on the two-deep.
Plus, with how Illinois plays under Bielema, it's not a team I'm overly terrified to fade as a big favorite, especially in this particular spot.
Don't catch the falling knife? In the interest of full transparency, there's a trend that sits squarely in the face of this play. Underdogs of 20 or more points that failed to cover the spread by 28 or more points the previous week have gone just 39-72-4 (35.1%) ATS since 2005, failing to cover by four points per game on average.
That includes a depressing 7-25-1 ATS (21.9%) in the month of September.
In Week 3, this fade trend applies to Central Michigan, Kentucky, UTSA and UAB. Sometimes the market just can't catch up enough (especially early on) with how much worse a team is than expected.
Notable Nugget
For what it's worth, CMU head coach Jim McElwain has excelled against the number in the large underdog (20-plus points) role against power-conference competition since arriving in Mount Pleasant. He's covered four straight against Miami, Oklahoma State, Penn State and Notre Dame.
Pick: Central Michigan +20 or Better (Waiting to See if +21 Pops)
Tulsa +20.5 vs. Oklahoma State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
While the travel is easy and the crowd should have its fair share of orange, this 11 a.m. local kick in Tulsa sets up as a potential sandwich spot for the Pokes, who survived in double overtime against Arkansas with Utah and Kansas State up next as the games that will make or break their season.
Meanwhile, Tulsa should come out with its hair on fire against one of its in-state big brothers.
While the offensive line situation remains murky, I like what I've seen from quarterback Kirk Francis in limited duty since taking over as the starter late last season.
I came away especially impressed in games against fairly decent G5 defenses in East Carolina (two-point win) and Tulane (two-point loss).
I think the Golden Hurricane can score enough — whether it's early or late — to keep this within three touchdowns against an Oklahoma State defense that still leaves a lot to be desired despite its returning experience.
Plus, the Pokes will now have to make do without their best overall defender in outside linebacker Collin Oliver, who suffered a long-term injury last week against Arkansas. The drop-off to his replacement, Obi Ezeigbo (D-II transfer), looked drastic.
Yes, Oklahoma State is 2-0, but it should've lost easily to Arkansas, which finished with a whopping 648-385 yardage edge.
It also finished with just six more yards than South Dakota State in the opener, yet still won by 24 thanks in part to fourth-down variance, as SDSU went 0-for-4 and OSU went 2-for-2.
On the season, Oklahoma State is now 3-for-4 on fourth downs, while its two opponents have yet to convert on six tries.
Despite sitting pretty at 2-0, Oklahoma State ranks 119th nationally in net yards per play margin (-1.83) — one spot behind Temple.
Running back Ollie Gordon II might just go completely bananas behind an offensive line that should push around the undersized Tulsa defensive front, which does scare me a bit.
However, even in that scenario, the Tulsa offense is still capable of doing enough to stay within this number.
Plus, I'm not sure how much Gundy will push with a lead late with two ranked opponents coming up next, especially after his defense played over 90 snaps last week. Last week's effort could not only lead to some fatigue but also may leave the backdoor open if necessary.
Notable Nugget
If you're looking for a reason to back the Pokes, since 2005, Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy is the third-most profitable head coach as a favorite among 431 in our Action Labs database, trailing only Jim Tressel and James Franklin.
Pick: Tulsa: +20 or Better
Under 45.5
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is more injury speculation, but I'm not convinced Cam Rising will suit up for this one.
If he doesn't, the downgrade to the backup quarterback is astronomical. The Utah offense will look like it did under current Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes when it averaged approximately two touchdowns less per game than when Rising suited up.
If Rising does indeed get the start, I'd look for Utah State live if the Utes jump out to an early lead as expected, as I'd assume Utah won't run him much and would probably pull him early due to the injury concerns with a pair of critical conference games against ranked opponents on deck.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham alluded to that being the game plan once Rising left against Baylor last week, so I wouldn't expect anything different one week later.
After getting shut out by USC last week, it's also hard to see the Utah State offense doing much against a very stout Utah defense that doesn't have any glaring holes. Just last week, Baylor mastered only 73 yards of total offense in the first half.
It's also worth noting Utah State now runs at a significantly slower pace than it did last season under former head coach Blake Anderson. The Aggies were clearly trying to shorten the game against USC and should do so once again this week against a clearly superior opponent.
While Utah State got shredded by the USC offense last week, that's a different animal than the Utah offense — especially if Rising doesn't suit up. Ultimately, I trust the Utah State defense much more than the offense to step up in a home hype spot.
If Rising doesn't play, you'll have two teams just trying to shorten the game with extremely limited quarterback play.
Pick: Under 44 or Better · Utah State +21.5 or Better Live
