The Alabama Crimson Tide will kick off the post-Nick Saban era at home on Saturday against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
This matchup will take place at Bryant-Denny Stadium at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
There are a lot of new faces in Tuscaloosa this season. Will this affect them this week, or can Kalen Deboer keep the Tide rolling?
Let’s dive into my Western Kentucky vs Alabama prediction, odds, picks and college football preview for Saturday, August 31.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs. Alabama Prediction & College Football Pick: Over 59.5
My Western Kentucky vs Alabama best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live college football odds page.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama Odds
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+34.5 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | +2500 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-34.5 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
- Western Kentucky vs Alabama Point Spread: Western Kentucky +34.5 (-110) · Alabama -34.5 (-110)
- Western Kentucky vs Alabama Total: Over/Under 59
- Western Kentucky vs Alabama Moneyline: Western Kentucky +2800 · Alabama -20000
Western Kentucky vs Alabama Preview
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview: Toppers Keep Rolling
Tyson Helton is back at Western Kentucky for his sixth season.
In his previous five seasons, he posted winning records four times, and Western Kentucky should again be a CUSA title contender.
Once again, the offense was the team's strength last year. The 'Toppers ranked sixth nationally in Finishing Drives and ninth in Explosiveness, but they had some inefficiencies down to down, as they ranked 93rd in Success Rate. This team passed the ball 60% of the time and ranked 62nd in Pass Success Rate, 35th in Pass Explosiveness, and 42nd in Pass PPA.
They return nine starters from last year's offense. The major departures are quarterback Austin Reed and receiver Malachi Corley, who had 984 yards and 11 touchdowns before being selected on day two of the NFL Draft.
The Hilltoppers will replace Reed with LSU/Auburn/Texas State quarterback transfer TJ Finley. Finley was a revelation for Texas State last season, leading one of the best passing attacks in the Group of 5. I don’t expect much of a dropoff from this offense this season with Finley at quarterback.
This Toppers defense ranked just 100th in Success Rate allowed last season. They were stronger against the pass (52nd in Pass Success Rate allowed) but struggled against the run (125th in Rush Success Rate allowed). They also ranked 117th in Havoc and 89th in Finishing Drives allowed.
Only five starters return from last year's defense, including their best pass rusher and three of their top four tacklers.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: New Faces In Tuscaloosa
There is a lot of uncertainty around this Alabama program for the first time in ages.
Following Nick Saban’s retirement, Kalen Deboer takes over as head coach. Deboer became known for his high-scoring offenses at Washington and was able to take them to the CFP title game last season.
Jalen Milroe will once again be the signal-caller for the Tide. The junior quarterback is electric and will be on every highlight reel this season. Last season, Milroe was the ultimate boom-or-bust player, as he would make many huge plays but plenty of mistakes. The hope is that Deboer can reign him in and make this one of the best offenses in the country.
Alabama has lost its two leading rushers and top three receivers from last year's explosive offense, so it will have work to do at the skill positions. Four starters are back along the offensive line, however, which will help to ease this transition.
Kane Wommack takes over as Alabama's defensive coordinator this season. He was the head coach at South Alabama for the last three seasons, where he built them up into a respectable Group of 5 program. He will now reunite with Deboer, who was with him at Indiana in 2019.
Alabama’s defense is typically stout, and last season was no different. The Tide ranked ninth in Success Rate allowed and 30th in Havoc. However, they also ranked 85th in Finishing Drives allowed and 98th in Explosiveness allowed, as they had a propensity to allow big runs.
The Crimson Tide return six starters from last year's defense. They were a top-15 unit against the pass, which should play against Western Kentucky's pass-heavy attack.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama Pick & Prediction
I expect Alabama’s offense to score at will in this game.
Deboer is a great offensive coach and has the playmaker at quarterback in Milroe to make this work. The Crimson Tide do need to find who will make plays at the skill positions as the season goes on, but they can simply outmatch Western Kentucky's defense.
On the other hand, I do have some concerns about Alabama’s defense to begin the year. I think that Wommack is a good coach, but he has his work cut out for him. Specifically, Alabama faces the losses of Terrion Arnold, Caleb Downs, and Kool-Aid McKinstry from this secondary. There is a chance that these absences will be felt in week one against this Western Kentucky passing attack that does have the ability to put some points on the board.
Overall I think this could be a higher scoring game than expected.
The over/under is 59.5 right now, with the assumption being that Alabama is going to score 45 or more while WKU pitches in around two touchdowns.
The Crimson Tide certainly have the ability to do this, but I think that Western Kentucky can hold up their end of the bargain too, so give me the over in this week one matchup.
Pick: Over 59.5 (-110, bet365) | Bet to 60.5 (-110)
- Bet Western Kentucky vs Alabama at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.
How to Watch Western Kentucky vs Alabama Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Western Kentucky vs Alabama Betting Trends
- While almost 70% of the bets are on Western Kentucky, over 80% of the handle is on Alabama.
- The public is all over the Under, as over 80% of the tickets and handle are on that side of the total.
- Alabama went 12-2 straight up and 9-5 ATS last season, including 5-2 ATS at home and 8-4 ATS as a favorite.
