The Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints face off on Thursday Night Football to start NFL Week 7 tonight. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, exclusively on Prime Video, from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
There's a lot of uncertainty in this game with key players missing for both teams. The Saints have been hit harder by injuries, with quarterback Derek Carr, wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and tight end Taysom Hill missing. For Denver, shutdown cornerback Patrick Surtain II is expected to be out.
Don't sweat, though. We have you covered in every market: against the spread, on the total, and with player props. Our experts are backing the Broncos, the under, and a Broncos receiver who has made the most of his limited opportunities this season.
Let's get into our Thursday Night Football picks and NFL predictions for Broncos vs. Saints.
Broncos vs. Saints Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Broncos vs. Saints ATS Pick
With an abundance of volatility at quarterback, we have to decipher what really matters in handicapping a game like this on such a short week. Pundits love to say running the ball makes life easier for quarterbacks, but it's especially true tonight. Denver has stuffed runs at or behind the line of scrimmage at the second-highest rate in football and has allowed just 3.9 yards per rush.
The Saints have stuffed running plays at the second-lowest rate and have been gashed the last two games by the Bucs and the Chiefs. Tampa Bay and Kansas City combined to rush the ball on 60 plays, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. The New Orleans defense was credited with 15 missed tackles this past Sunday, their highest mark of the season thus far, and now will be playing their third game in 11 days.
The Saints have hit some explosive plays this season, but life is going to be very difficult against this Broncos defense without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II will be missing for Denver, but the NFL's fourth-best pressure rate should still bother Spencer Rattler. The Saints' offensive line ranks 29th in pass block win rate, a metric in which the Broncos rank first.
Denver will have more success running the ball and should have a much easier path in protecting Bo Nix. I'd play the Broncos -2.5 with a price tag up to -120 — otherwise I am comfortable laying -3 at -110.
Pick: Broncos -2.5
Billy Ward's Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
I’ve had the thought for a while that betting markets have a hard time setting totals at the extreme ends of the spectrum, particularly on the low end. We (almost) never see totals in the 20s or low 30s, even when two bad offenses attached to good defenses face off.
Brandon Anderson provided some data to that feeling on last week’s Action Network NFL Recap: Games with closing totals of 37 or below hit the under a whopping 73% of the time, meaning they should be lined even lower.
This game also features a top-10 Broncos defense facing a Saints offense led by a rookie fifth-round quarterback who will be without his top wide receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
The Saints defense isn’t quite as intimidating, but the Broncos are averaging under 19 points per game and rank 26th in offensive DVOA.
The biggest risk factor here might be defensive scoring that drives up the score, rather than effective offense from either team. It would take a lot of pick-sixes to clear 37 points, so we’ll take the under.
Pick: Under 37.5
Devaughn Vele Player Props for Thursday Night Football
Devaughn Vele has only played in two games this season, but he's been a tremendous target earner.
Vele caught all eight of his targets for 39 yards in Week 1 and six of his eight looks last week against the Chargers for 78 yards. The Saints have been tough on outside receivers this season (in large part thanks to Marshon Lattimore) but have been shredded by slot receivers. The latest beneficiary of this matchup was Chris Godwin, who caught 11 passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns last week against New Orleans.
While Josh Reynolds being ruled out won't necessarily lead to more playing time for Vele, it could lead to more targets. Lil'Jordan Humphrey had been the slot receiver in Weeks 2-5, but he only ran a route on 18% of dropbacks last week. Meanwhile, Vele ran a route on 66% of dropbacks and lined up in the slot 77% of the time. I'm taking the overs on his receptions (3.5) and receiving yards (30.5).
The best number for over 3.5 receptions, as of Wednesday night, is +130 at bet365, and the best receiving yards number is over 30.5 at -110 via BetMGM.
Pick: Devaughn Vele Over 3.5 Receptions (+130) & Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
