The Houston Texans and New England Patriots battle today in the Divisional Round. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Texans vs Patriots will broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
The Patriots are 3-point favorites on the spread (Patriots -3; -122); the game total over/under is 40.5 (-115o / -105u). The Patriots are -170 moneyline favorites; the Texans are +142 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Texans vs Patriots prediction. This NFL Divisional Round preview also includes the latest NFL odds, betting trends, inactives, weather forecast, viewing information and more.
Texans vs Patriots Predictions, Picks
- Texans vs Patriots pick: Texans +3.5; bet to +3
My Texans vs Patriots best bet is on Houston to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Patriots Odds
| Houston Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +102 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
| New England Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -122 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
Texans vs Patriots Preview
The Patriots were my pick as the best value to win the Super Bowl before the NFL Playoffs began, but there are concerns that are difficult to ignore heading into their matchup with the Texans.
On the surface, Drake Maye’s performance in his first playoff start looks very good when glancing at the box score. Maye accounted for 334 total yards and led his team to crucial points in the second half to secure a victory.
However, the Chargers represented the toughest test for the Patriots' offense thus far this entire season, and Maye’s success rate decreased accordingly. Maye had a success rate of just 42%, his lowest since early November.
The Patriots converted just 36% of their 3rd downs last week against Los Angeles, and in their only loss since September at the hands of the Bills, Maye averaged just six yards per attempt and moved the chains through the air just six times the entire 60 minutes.
It may sound as if I am cherry-picking statistics to find a flaw in the Patriots, but given the lack of competition they faced during the regular season, we must put the games in which they were challenged in context. Make no mistake, this game against the Texans will present a stiffer test than they have previously had to endure to date.
The New England offensive line did not play well last week, and it is fair to project a struggle up front for the Patriots again, given the lack of defensive pressure they have had to navigate throughout the regular season. Maye was sacked five times a week ago, resulting in a worrisome 14.3% sack rate.
Left tackle Will Campbell was playing in just his second game since returning from injury, and his 64 snaps played were his most since Week 11.
Campbell allowed one sack and five pressures, his most in any game during his rookie season. He wasn’t the only lineman that struggled in pass protection, as left guard Jared Wilson surrendered two sacks and six pressures versus the Chargers, a pass rush not quite as daunting as the one they will see today.
The headliners for the Texans' defense are Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, but their presence is already factored into the handicap. It has been the play of Houston’s two interior defenders that will make the difference in this matchup.
Defensive tackle Tommy Togiai played just 32 snaps last week in Pittsburgh and had 17 pass-rush opportunities, yet he generated three solo tackles, two run stops and two pressures. Togiai’s playing time has increased over the last six weeks due to his effectiveness and he is coming off his two best games, as he also accounted for three pressures in Week 18 against Indianapolis.
The other consistent force for the Texans' front has been defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. He also happens to be peaking at the right time with eight pressures in his last three games, culminating in two sacks of Aaron Rodgers this past Monday.
Texans vs Patriots Predictions: Back Houston to Cover Spread
I’ve always looked to the trenches first as a handicapper, as I know that is ultimately where the game is won and lost.
There is reason to believe the Texans can win the line of scrimmage in this game, and the oddsmakers’ total indicates points will certainly be at a premium when these two red-hot teams square off.
Nico Collins is a significant loss for the Houston offense, but C.J. Stroud was highly efficient last week after he left the game. Stroud’s two fumbles in the entire regular season lead me to believe ball security is not an issue to project moving forward.
Limiting mistakes will be key, as I expect the Houston defense to make its statement as the Texans advance to the AFC Championship on the back of a unit that has not allowed a single team to score more than 21 points since Week 10.
Pick: Texans +3.5; bet to +3
Texans vs Patriots Betting Trends
Texans Trends
- The Texans are 0-6 straight up (SU) in franchise history in the Divisional Round; C.J. Stroud is 0-2 SU.
- Stroud has started 51 total games in the NFL — the under is 32-18-1 in those games – that's the best under mark for any QB since he entered the league three years ago.
Patriots Trends
- As a favorite of at least 3 points, Drake Maye is 11-0 SU and 9-2 against the spread (ATS).
- Since 2011, teams are just 4-9 SU in their next playoff game after scoring under 20 pts in a playoff win — the Patriots scored 16 points in the Wild Card Round.
Texans vs Patriots Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Gillette Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Jan. 18 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN, ABC |
Texans vs Patriots Injuries, Inactives
Texans Inactives
WR Nico Collins (concussion)
WR Justin Watson (concussion)
RB Jawhar Jordan (ankle)
QB Graham Mertz
OT Trent Brown (ankle)
CB Alijah Huzzie
Patriots Inactives
QB Tommy DeVito (3rd QB)
G Caedan Wallace
LB Bradyn Swinson
TE CJ Dippre
OT Marcus Bryant
DB Kobee Minor
DT Eric Gregory
