The New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers will face off to close NFL Week 8 tonight on Monday Night Football with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Steelers are 6-point favorites on the spread over the Giants (Steelers -6), while the over/under is a low 36.5 points scored. Pittsburgh is a -275 favorite on the moneyline, while the Giants are +225 to pull off an upset. Russell Wilson led the Steelers to a 37-15 win over the Jets last week with 2 touchdown passes, while the Giants have lost 4 of their last 5 games. The public is heavy on the Steelers tonight, but there's reason to believe the underdog is the pick tonight.
The Steelers are definitely the public side tonight. According to our public betting data, 82% of bets and 82% of the money are on Pittsburgh against the spread. Well, one of our experts is fading that pick, and another is going against the 86% of bets and 72% of money on the over.
Let's get to our Giants vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks.
Giants vs. Steelers Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Picks |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs. Steelers Prediction Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
I learned my lesson about fading our Luck Rankings last week, when I was on an island on Monday. I'm not making that mistake again, which is one of the reasons I'm backing the Giants +6.
New York is the sixth-unluckiest team in the NFL coming into the week, while the Steelers have a positive luck score. Pittsburgh looked great last week in a 37-15 win over the Jets. That was the first game of the season with Russel Wilson under center, and he picked it up in the second half after a slow start.
He also faced clean pockets nearly the entire game, with just one sack by the Jets. The Giants won't be so accommodating, as they lead the league in both adjusted sack rate and total sacks. Pittsburgh has the worst matchup in the league this week in terms of combined sack rate allowed by the offense and forced by the defense.
On the Giants side, it's a roughly average matchup in terms of pressure rate, despite the Steelers overall strong defense. Their bad games offensively have came against tough pass rushes, with the Vikings and Eagles ranking fifth and sixth in adjusted sack rate. Pittsburgh is 18th.
The Giants offense is almost certainly the weak link here, but I'm less worried given the pass blocking matchup.
Pick: Giants +6 (-110)
Monday Night Football Over/Under Pick
Six of seven Giants' game have had the under cash this season, and I expect that trend to continue with left tackle Andrew Thomas out of the lineup. Daniels Jones took seven sacks last week, with the team's pressure rate allowed increasing 10% compared to the first six weeks of the season. The Eagles blitzed on only 3% of snaps versus New York last week and they were still able to generate pressure with ease.
Russell Wilson made his season debut last week and Pittsburgh made it a point to make sure he was protected well. That task will be more difficult in this game against a Giants front ranking sixth in pressure rate and boasting the best adjusted sack rate when accounting for down and distance, throwaways, etc. Unsurprisingly, both of Wilson's touchdown passes were in clean pockets, whereas when he was pressured, he completed just 4-of-11 attempts.
I am expecting several clock-churning methodical drives from the Steelers' offense that tests the New York rush defense. A heavy dose of the ground attack against the second-worst team on a yards per carry allowed basis should empower the Steelers to control the game, dominate time of possession, and keep their defense fresh.
It's hard to envision the Giants scoring more than 14 points Monday night. The punters will be busy in this one as another New York under cashes yet again.
Pick: Under 36.5 (-110)
NFL Player Prop for Giants-Steelers
By Matt Trebby
Darius Slayton has gone over this total five times in seven games this season. With Malik Nabers in the lineup, he’s gone over it three times in five games.
We’ll focus on the games with Nabers in the lineup since he got 11 targets in both games that the rookie phenom missed.
In those games, Slayton is averaging 3.6 targets per game. Ironically, he’s averaging 26.6 yards per game. We’ll take that tonight! He’s averaging 2.2 receptions per game.
Slayton’s average depth of target is 11.7 this season, so his average reception of 12.1 could actually be a little higher if he was able to get a few yards after the catch.
The Steelers defense ranks 10th in Pass DVOA, but it ranks 28th in DVOA against opposing WR3s. Pittsburgh is allowing 24.1 yards per game to opposing slot receivers, which is very relevant against New York with Wan’Dale Robinson playing such a prominent role in the offense.
This season, the Steelers are averaging an average of 57.6 receiving yards per game to opposing WR3s. The focus will obviously be on Nabers, and Pittsburgh defends slot receivers well. That means this is a matchup made for Slayton.
Pick: Darius Slayton Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
