Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here’s the quarterback interception props I like for Week 11:
Sam Darnold To Throw An Interception (-115)
The Vikings' offense has been a positive story this season, mostly because of their reclamation project on QB Sam Darnold. Well, entering Week 11, Darnold may be starting to turn back into a pumpkin and I like him to throw an interception on the road vs the Titans.
Darnold has five picks in just the last two games and is coming off a three-interception game vs the Jaguars. His stock is falling and, frankly, some of his INTs this year have been in the “what are you doing?!” category. Of his 10 interceptions this season, seven have come when he had a clean pocket. This has been a consistent theme for the season now with Darnold having an interception in seven of nine games and three of four on the road.
Part of the reason why I think Darnold will need to throw more is the matchup with the Titans. They rank seventh in defensive DVOA for run defense and are top-five in rushing yards allowed and passes to running backs. The big factor why we are even getting -115 odds for Darnold INT is the Titans haven’t generated a lot of turnovers and rank bottom-five in passes defended and INT% per dropback.
That screams positive regression, and with Darnold coming to town as a 6-point favorite, I like the Titans to keep it close and get him to turn it over.
Matthew Stafford To Throw An Interception (-110)
I’ve legitimately been betting on Matt Stafford INT props since the Obama Administration. That’s how long we’ve been cashing in on this quarterback’s innate ability to possess one of the best arms we’ve seen at the QB position accompanied by some of the worst decision making.
Stafford has thrown an interception in six straight games and seven of nine games overall. Sometimes when I watch him play, it seems like Stafford can’t help himself. He’ll try and make a play where he’ll try to squeeze in a throw that most QBs wouldn’t at a time when they shouldn’t. In three of the last four games when he’s thrown an interception, the Rams had been leading by at least one score. The two games before that, it was within a trailing game-script but still within a 7-point margin.
Now, we have the Rams going on the road to face the plucky Patriots defense that is expected to get DT Christian Barmore back this week and has slowly been turning the corner. Over the last three games, their pressure rate has skyrocketed and just came off a nine-sack game of QB Caleb Williams and the Bears.
Well, Stafford has thrown five of his seven INT when pressured, but six of those seven came when he wasn’t blitzed. That checks another box because the Pats are bottom-10 in blitz rate in the NFL this season.
