The NFL Divisional Round continues on Sunday, with Rams–Eagles at 3:00 p.m. ET followed by Ravens–Bills at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Divisional Round on Sunday.
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NFL PrizePicks — Divisional Round Sunday
Jalen Hurts LESS Than 9.5 Rush Attempts
Last week in his first game back from an extended absence due to a concussion, Hurts carried the ball just six times in a comfortable win over the Packers.
This week, his Eagles are favored by about a touchdown. Assuming the Eagles are able to control this game, they should be continuing to try to protect Hurts, since they'll need him at full strength for tougher matchups down the line.
The Eagles had the second-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the NFL this season, which actually helps the odds of Hurts having nine or fewer rushing attempts — if we assume they limit his designed runs.
Fewer dropbacks mean fewer opportunities to scramble. We project his mean at 8.7 attempts.
Saquon Barkley MORE than 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
This prop is an "angel" play on PrizePicks, meaning it comes with a lower payout than typical selections.
Still, it's as close to a free square as we can find. If The Eagles are running more, but not through Hurts, that means more work for Barkley. He had 15 total touchdowns in 16 regular-season games, including two in the previous meeting with Los Angeles.
You could certainly skip this leg and it wouldn't impact your payout too much, but it's also likely enough to hit that it isn't a significant risk.
Josh Allen MORE Than 23 Fantasy Score
I'm expecting Bills–Ravens to live up to its potential as a shootout, which for the Bills means plenty of Josh Allen.
He's cleared this number in four of the last six games, with one of the misses seeing him finish at 22.98 points. Overall this season, he's scored at least 23 points in the vast majority of the non-blowout games Buffalo has played.
I like fantasy points as a metric for the dual-threat Allen since he's nearly equally likely to get this number through the air or on the ground, but his fantasy points line lets you cover both scenarios.
Our DFS projections have his mean at 23.89 points
Lamar Jackson MORE Than 22 Fantasy Score
Our models show a similar edge on Jackson, with a 23-point projection.
More importantly, this correlates nicely with Allen's line. A competitive game pushes both teams to stay aggressive through the air, which in turn provides more opportunities for both QBs to scramble.
Like Allen, I'm going with the fantasy points line rather than any of Jackson's individual stats, since it's hard to narrow down exactly where he finds success. But odds are he gets his at some point during this game.
