We've had two entertaining island games in Week 8, but the streak might end tonight. This matchup has a 36.5 total and nearly a touchdown spread.
I'll be leaning into murky roles tonight. We have some muddled backfields and a shifting receiving corps to consider in this matchup, and I plan on taking some stands. These are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks: Monday Night Football
Devin Singletary
Less Than 31.5 Rushing Yards
Singletary returned in Week 7 after missing two games with a groin injury. He played just 21% of the snaps and earned six touches (five carries, one reception). Tyrone Tracy dominated the backfield for a third straight week, playing 67% of the snaps. Eric Gray also mixed in for 10 snaps. And yet, Singletary's rushing yards line is higher than Tracy's on Monday night.
None of New York's backs played well against Philadelphia in a blowout loss, but Tracy was the clear lead back. Even if the Giants were easing Singletary back in coming off the injury, it's hard to imagine Singletary returning to the dominant role he had in Weeks 1-4. Tracy played too well with Singletary sidelined.
Pittsburgh has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards this season. They've held running backs to the third-fewest yards per carry. New York is on the road as a 6-point underdog, so they're likely playing from behind.
Jaylen Warren
More Than 47.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
Warren has been Pittsburgh's good luck charm this season. The Steelers are 5-0 in games he's played in and 0-2 in games he's missed with injury. Warren was banged up in the preseason and then went down with a knee injury in Week 3. He returned in Week 6 as the clear second fiddle to Najee Harris, but we saw a much closer split in Week 7.
Warren played two more snaps than Harris last week against the Jets. He earned a season-high 12 carries and matched a season-high with three targets. Harris earned plenty of work himself (20 carries, one target) as Pittsburgh steamrolled New York. This was much closer to the thunder-and-lightning approach we saw for much of last season.
Harris has run extremely well recently, but there should be room for Warren to also have a solid game in a good matchup. The Giants have been gashed on the ground and through the air by running backs this season. New York is allowing the second-most yards per carry and the sixth-most receiving yards to the position.
Darius Slayton
Less Than 6 Fantasy Score
This is a low number, but I like it a little better than Slayton's receiving yards option (25.5). His role has been nonexistent when Malik Nabers has been healthy.
Slayton racked up 11 targets in both Week 5 and Week 6, turning them into 14 receptions and 179 receiving yards. Outside of those two games, he has 11 catches on 18 targets for 133 receiving yards. Nabers missed Weeks 5-6 with a concussion. Slayton has just a 10% target rate when Nabers has been in the lineup.
Slayton's aDOT has jumped from 10.2 to 13.1 when Nabers plays. Pittsburgh has a solid pass defense, particularly on long passes. They've allowed fifth-fewest completions on passes traveling 10-19 yards and the second-fewest completions on passes traveling 20+ yards.
