Welcome to NFL Trade Deadline week and the impact of the deadline on Week 10.
In Week 9, underdogs bounced back with six outright wins, just the second week of the 2025 season that was profitable for underdogs on the moneyline. After five over/under's of 50+ points last week, this week there is a shot we close with none.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 10 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Nov. 4, at 2 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Deadline Impact
Inflated Lines
With the NFL Trade Deadline this week, the question is about any impact on games, betting and lines for that given week. Over the last decade (since 2016), here is some betting data around the week of the NFL Trade Deadline:
• Favorites win at 68% rate and in terms of covering, they are an even 58-58-5 ATS, but 21-32-2 ATS since 2021.
• The under has had an edge at 66-52-3 (56%) and is 44-23-2 (66%) since 2020.
• Interestingly enough, teams on short rest off Trade Deadline are 20-13 SU and 19-14 ATS (Cardinals this week) and teams favored off a bye on Trade Deadline week are 13-3 SU (Bucs this week).
Here is the most interesting angle of the Trade Deadline: line movement. Action Network tracks week-to-week line movement in the NFL from the opening to closing lines. The Trade Deadline brings about line movement for teams adding players, but maybe too much.
When the spread moves from the opening to closing line away from a team (ex. +7.5 to +9 or -5 to -3), they are 62-41-4 ATS (60.2%) over the last decade on trade deadline week, including 41-25-3 ATS (62.1%) when they are listed as underdogs and when those those teams have a win pct of 33% or less on the season entering the week, they are 15-9 ATS (62.5%).
Here are the updated opening and closing lines this week: Check current lines.
Bounce Back Kings
Lions After a Loss
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 16-12-1 SU and 21-8 ATS off of a straight up loss as a duo, but they’ve won and covered 12 in a row dating back to November 1st of 2022.
The 12-game SU and ATS winning streak off of an outright loss is the longest for any team in the last 30 years. The 2011-13 Colts and 2018-21 Packers both had streaks of 11 games.
West is Best
NFC West At The Top
The NFC West is 18-7 ATS vs. teams outside the division this year, the best mark through nine weeks for any division since 2020.
All four teams in the NFC West are over .500 ATS, the only division that can say that this season:
• Seahawks: 6-2 ATS
• Rams: 6-2 ATS
• Cardinals: 5-3 ATS
• 49ers: 5-4 ATS
A New Era
Points ≠ Cover
Points no longer mean a cover. Teams scoring 24 points or more this season are 93-41 ATS (69.4%). That would be the 2nd-lowest mark over a full season in the Wild Card era since 1990. The lowest was during the pandemic season in 2020.
Undefeated Primetime
West Coast Nights
Two QBs are undefeated ATS in night games this season: Sam Darnold and Justin Herbert. Herbert is at home on Sunday Night Football vs. the Steelers this week. Herbert has covered five straight starts in primetime at night.
The North Remembers
Off A Bad Loss
• Packers lost as a 12.5-pt favorite vs. Panthers.
• Lions lost as a 8.5-pt favorite vs. Vikings
Teams after losing as a favorite of 7 pts or more are 81-57-3 ATS (58.7%) since 2015, including 22-13 ATS over the last three seasons.
Sad Cats
Panthers Favored Again
Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 10 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. That is the longest SU losing streak for any team as a favorite since the 1970 merger.
Carolina is 5-4 SU this season, having been an underdog in all nine games entering this week. They are just the 2nd team since the 1970 merger to have a SU record above .500 and be an underdog in their first nine games of the season – the other was the 2001 Browns.
Tired Pirates
Raiders In Tough Spot
Teams on short rest off overtime, when their opponent is not off OT, are 26-47 SU and 23-47-3 ATS in the last 20 years, failing to cover the spread by 4.1 PPG when that team is on the road, they are 9-27 SU and 10-25-1 ATS.
When that same overtime team plays on Thursday Night Football, they are 6-21 SU and 4-23 ATS in that same span, with the Bears actually covering vs. the Lions in this spot last year.
Every NFL Game For Week 10
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➤A terrible spot for the Raiders this week, coming off an overtime game against the Jaguars, now having to play on short rest in Denver against the Broncos.
Teams on short rest off overtime, when their opponent is not off OT, are 26-47 SU and 23-47-3 ATS in the last 20 years, failing to cover the spread by 4.1 PPG – when that team is on the road, they are 9-27 SU and 10-25-1 ATS.
When that same overtime team plays on Thursday Night Football, they are 6-21 SU and 4-23 ATS in that same span, with the Bears actually covering vs. the Lions in this spot last year.
➤This rivalry has had a heck of a streak series lately.
- Broncos have won covered last two games.
- Raiders were 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since 2018 before 2-game streak.
- Between 2012 and 2017, Broncos went 9-3 SU/ATS vs. Raiders.
➤Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Geno Smith has started five games in primetime, his teams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. No other QB in that span is even 0-3 ATS or worse in primetime.
Overall in primetime throughout his career, Geno is 4-13 SU, including 0-7 SU vs. division opponents, the worst mark of 172 QBs since 2003. He’s lost a primetime game vs. a division opponent now with three different teams: Jets, Seahawks, Raiders.
➤Pete Carroll and Sean Payton have faced off seven times as NFL head coaches, Payton is 4-3 SU/ATS, but he’s won three straight over the last decade vs. Pete.
This will be Carroll’s third trip to Denver as a head coach, his teams are 0-2 SU, with Denver scoring 58 total pts in the two games.
➤This will be the 5th start for Bo Nix at night in primetime – he is 3-1 SU/ATS, going 2-0 SU/ATS at home in Denver in primetime, covering by 10 PPG.
Best Bronco QBs ATS at home in primetime last 20 years (of 11 QBs)
Peyton Manning: 7-2-1 ATS
Bo Nix: 2-0 ATS
Tim Tebow: 1-0 ATS
Nix has made 27 career starts in the NFL, and he is 10-4 ATS as a favorite and 6-7 ATS as an underdog. The one thing Nix always does well is not to get blown out. He is 24-3 in a 6-point teaser.
➤Bo Nix has started four career games for the Broncos where the over/under closed at 45 or higher – Denver 1-4 SU/ATS in those games. In all other games with lower totals, Nix and the Broncos are 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS.
As a favorite, Nix is 13-1 SU in his NFL career, including 13-0 as a 2-pt favorite or higher. In Nix’s 14 starts as a favorite, he is also 11-3 2H ATS.
➤In primetime games on short rest, Sean Payton is 10-9-1 ATS, he is 9-4-1 ATS with Drew Brees and 1-5 ATS with all other QBs (all since 2020).
➤Raiders have allowed 30+ pts in consecutive games and are now on short rest, surprisingly, those poor defensive teams are 8-3 ATS since 2022.
➤The Raiders welcomed back Brock Bowers last week. He had 13 targets, 12 catches, 127 receiving yards and 3 TDs. This season, when Bowers plays, Vegas averages 21.2 PPG, when he sits, just 8.7 PPG.
➤Let’s talk Colts. Indy’s win total was 7.5 entering the season. They are 7-2 SU entering their 10th game in Week 10.
They would be the 6th team with a win total of 7.5 or less since division realignment in 2002 to eclipse their win total before Week 10, and first since 2014 Cardinals:
2014 Cardinals
2013 Chiefs
2011 49ers
2007 Packers
2004 Steelers
➤Both head coaches, Raheem Morris and Shane Steichen have head coaching experience in overseas games.
Steichen coached one game overseas with the Colts, a 10-6 win over the Patriots in 2023 as 1.5-pt favorites, Gardner Minshew vs. Mac Jones.
Raheem has coached two games overseas, both with the Bucs – he’s 0-2 SU/ATS, losing 24-18 as 1.5-pt dogs in 2011 with Josh Freeman to Jay Cutler and in 2009 as 15.5-pt dogs, 35-7 with Josh Johnson to Tom Brady.
In the history of the International Series, no coach is currently 0-3 ATS, with multiple coaches currently sitting at 0-2 ATS entering this week.
➤Daniel Jones will be making his 3rd career start in an overseas games, doing so twice with the Giants. Jones’ offense scored 17 pts and 27 pts in the two games, splitting them both SU/ATS.
➤A few facts and trends from the 54 total international games – unders have a small edge at 28-26 after the under cashed in the last two overseas matchups. Even when you look at games played outside of London, they are an even 6-6 with totals.
Here's a breakdown by stadium:
Wembley: 15-12 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 2-0 to the under
Corinthians: 2-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 7-5 to the over
Croke Park: 1-0 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games.
+ They are 39-14-1 SU and 34-20 ATS and favorites of a FG or more overseas are 29-9-1 SU, 24-15 ATS.
+ Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 20-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium.
+ Favorites at Tottenham are 5-7 ATS. All other international stadiums: 29-12 ATS.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
60%+: 22-18 ATS
66%+: 15-10 ATS
70%+: 9-3 ATS
➤Three teams have entered an International Series game with a win pct of 75% or higher, facing a team below that mark. Those teams are just 3-3 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.3 PPG.
Teams that enter an overseas game off a road game and are listed as favorites, like the Colts are this week, are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS, covering the spread by over 8 PPG.
➤Colts are 15-of-17 on 4th down this season, for a 88.2% conversion pct. No team has ever had 15+ 4th down attempts through their first nine games with that high a conversion pct – 2020 Bengals had the 2nd-most.
➤Over the Colts last 14 games dating back to last season, the total combined pts between them and their opponent has averaged 54.3 PPG, with the over 9-4-1 in those games and the Colts going 10-4 SU.
➤Teams coming off a SU loss as a favorite before an International Series game are 15-9 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.
Whe two teams enter an overseas game both off a SU loss, the favorite is 12-5 ATS.
➤An odd, unique spot for the Colts coming off six turnovers vs. Steelers and are now listed as a favorite in a road/neutral game. We’ve only seen 14 of those teams since 1998 and they are just 6-8 SU and 2-10-2 ATS.
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➤Giants and Bears face off this week with a total around 48 to 49 points. In the 19 total meetings between these two teams since 1980 this would be the highest over/under, and would break their series record for anything above 46.5. Last decade, these teams are 5-1 to the under in their matchups, with the only over coming in an overtime game.
➤The Bears and Bengals played all-time chaos game last week where there was eight total lead changes between the two teams. Since the start of last season, teams to play a game with 8+ lead changes are 2-10 ATS in their next game and are 8-14-1 ATS as favorites dating back to 2018.
➤Same old problems for Caleb Williams. His completion pct above expectation is still -6.5%, the worst mark in the NFL according to NFL Next Gen Stats and his average time to throw is 3.24 seconds, also the worst mark in the NFL.
➤Bears have scored 30 pts or more 11 times in the last five seasons. In the previous ten games after scoring 30 pts, they are 2-8 ATS, 2-1 ATS with Caleb Williams and 0-7 ATS with all other QBs.
➤Caleb Williams has faced a defense allowing 27+ PPG nine times in his early NFL career, and the Bears are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in those games, including 3-0 SU/ATS at home, covering by 14.3 PPG.
➤Bears own the best turnover differential in the NFL this season at +13 and a large part of that is the 13 interceptions on defense, also the most in the NFL.
The bad part? They have 6+ penalties in all eight games, including 7 last week and 18 the last two games. The only NFC team with more penalties this year is Dallas.
➤Jaxon Dart is now -135 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Entering the season, Dart was 25-1 to win OROY because he didn’t have the starting job then. Since 2019, for the OROY and DROY, only Justin Herbert (30-1) won the award at longer than 25-1 odds.
Longest Odds Win OROY – Last 15 Years
50-1, Alvin Kamara (2017)
30-1, Justin Herbert (2020)
25-1, Odell Beckham Jr. (2014)
➤The Giants have allowed 20+ points in ten straight road games, including 38 and 33 in their last two road games against the Broncos and Eagles. In their last 4 road games, Giants have allowed 137 pts, their most as a franchise in a 4-game road span since 2013.
➤Jaxon Dart has a rushing TD in four straight games and in 5 of his six career starts. He has a pass TD and a rush TD in 5 of 6 starts, too – the first QB in NFL history to accomplish that.
Under Dart, the Giants are 5-1 to their team total over, going over in their last four games and this season as a whole, the Giants are 7-2 against the first quarter spread after tying 7-7 with the 49ers.
Giants Team Total under Jaxon Dart
23.5 TT == 24 pts vs. 49ers
17.5 == 30 vs. Eagles
15.5 == 32 vs. Broncos
16.5 == 34 vs. Eagles
20.5 == 14 vs. Saints
17.5 == 21 vs. Chargers
➤Josh Allen has started eight career road games where he was favored by over a full TD (-7.5 or more), the Bills are just 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS in those eight games.
➤Dolphins were blown out last week vs. the Ravens and are now big home dogs to Buffalo. Since 2003, dogs of 7 or more at home after losing by 20+ pts in their previous game are 69-46-1 ATS (60%), including 15-7 ATS over the last 5 years.
➤Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have played on Thursday Night Football five times, and they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games. In the five losses, the Dolphins are losing by 15.6 PPG. This will be the 3rd time Miami under McDaniel return home after TNF and they are 2-0 SU, scoring almost 30 PPG in those matchups.
➤Tua has always been better at home than he is on the road – didn’t help last week. But when Tua is on a homestand – 2nd straight home game or later, he is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS as the Dolphins starting QB, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
At home, Tua and the Dolphins are 26-11 SU – when the Dolphins lose at home, and then play at home again, they are 3-0 SU/ATS with Tua, winning the game outright by 15.3 PPG.
➤Both the Commanders and Dolphins head to Madrid, Spain, next week to face off in the first International Game in that country.
Teams with a neutral-site game on deck are 59-37 SU (62%) over the last decade, and they also cover 56% of those games.
➤Overall, the Bills have beaten the Dolphins in 7 straight meetings, including 14-1 SU in their last 15 matchups and 16-2 SU in their last 18 dating back to the beginning of the 2017 season.
➤Tua has only made five career starts coming off a game where the Dolphins scored 13 pts or less. In those 5 games, Miami has averaged 30 PPG and is 3-2 SU.
➤Any hangover after facing the Chiefs? Since 2020, teams after facing the Chiefs, who are road favorites the week after are 3-8-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.5 PPG.
Bills have the Bucs next week, who are 6-2 SU this year. Teams with a 70%+ win pct, who are a 7+ pt favorite this week and facing a team with a 70%+ win pct next week on deck, are 31-6 SU, but 15-21-1 ATS in November or later over the last decade. Packers were in that spot last week vs. Panthers and lost outright.
➤The 2nd half magician. Josh Allen is 6-2 against the 2nd half spread this season, including 22-6 2H ATS since the start of last season, best mark in the NFL.
In that span, when BUF is a favorite of 2 pts or more in 2H with Allen, they are 13-2 2H ATS.
➤The home-to-home on extended rest has a bit of an overvalue to it. Since 2010, teams to play at home and then play at home again on 10+ days rest are 79-101-4 ATS (44%). This week that is the Dolphins.
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➤Ravens can go under their win total with a loss this week. Before last week, they needed to go 10-0 in their final ten games this year to go over their win total of 11.5 – now 9-0.
Ravens would be the first team since 2020 Cowboys and 49ers to go under their double-digit win total in Week 10 or earlier. None of the ten previous double-digit favorites to go under their win total in Week 10 or earlier bounced back to make the playoffs.
➤Two teams who love the over.
• This season, Vikings are 7-1 to the over, best mark of any team in the NFL. With an eighth over in Week 10, they would eclipse their total overs in 2023 and 2024, they had 7 both years. Under Carson Wentz this year, Minnesota went 5-0 to the over.
• Ravens are 6-2 to the over this year, but since the start of last season, they are 20-7 to the over as well, 18-6 to the over with Lamar Jackson.
➤Lamar and the Ravens are on extended prep time facing the Vikings this week after the beat Miami on Thursday Night Football last week.
The Ravens are 17-8 SU but just 11-14 ATS when playing a game on extended rest with Lamar at QB – when that game is on the road, they are 8-2 SU/ATS, covering by 8.7 PPG. When the Ravens are at home, they are 3-12 ATS in this spot.
➤A bit of a turn. Lamar Jackson was 23-1 SU in 24 games vs. NFC entering their December game vs. Eagles last year. Since then, Lamar has lost to Philly and Detroit, both games at home, turning his record to 24-3 SU vs. the NFC as starting QB of the Ravens.
➤As a head coach, Kevin O’Connell will be seeing Lamar Jackson for the first time this week – when Lamar faces an opposing head coach for the first time he is 37-8 SU and 24-21 ATS, including 16-2 SU when it’s an NFC team.
➤Vikings came up with a massive upset over the Lions last week. Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings have played five total games directly after facing the Lions and Minnesota is 0-5 ATS, failing to cover by 11.9 PPG, losing the game outright by double-digit the last three seasons.
➤Panthers and Vikings won last week as underdogs of over a TD (+7.5 or more). Since 2017, those teams are just 37-49-3 ATS (43%) in their next game.
➤We saw our first glimpse at “cold weather” Derrick Henry last week and the Vikings are just 21st in rush EPA/play on defense this season.
Derrick Henry's yards per attempt in his career:
September: 4.3 – 0.59 TD/game, 49.6% rush success rate
October: 4.8 – 0.78 TD/game, 48% SR
November: 5.0 – 0.81 TD/game, 52.7% SR
December: 5.2 – 0.88 TD/game, 53.1% SR
January: 5.4 – 0.93 TD/game, 50.3% SR
➤In JJ McCarthy’s three career starts now, he has looked for Jefferson a ton during those games with 22 targets in the three games, his leader in all three, with Jefferson getting 3+ more targets than anyone else in two of those games.
➤Road trips can bring about camaraderie, at least that’s what i’ll say about this. Since 2018, teams in the middle of a road trip – road game behind them, road game ahead of them still – are 30-12 SU and 29-13 ATS, with those games 29-13 to the under in that span. This week that is the Ravens.
➤The Browns have played eight games. They are 2-6 SU and in those eight games, they still haven’t received the public support against the spread. In all 8 games, their opponent has been the public side ATS, with the public going 5-3 ATS.
Cleveland is the only team this season that has yet to get public support ATS in any game. The Browns have gone 16 consecutive games entering this week without getting public support ATS from bettors dating back to last season, with them last closing as the public side in November of last year vs. Chargers.
➤Earlier this season, Jets closed as 1.5-pt favorites vs. Panthers and lost, 13-6. They became the first 0-6 SU or worse team to close as a favorite since the 2013 Giants with Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning.
The Jets history as favorites isn’t a great one. They are 0-2 SU/ATS as favorites in 2025, losing to the Panthers and Cowboys and they are 10-20-1 ATS as favorites since 2018.
➤Both Jets and Browns are off bye weeks for this matchup – when both teams are off a bye week, the under is 23-13-1 since 2015 and when both teams are on any extended rest since 2018, the under is hitting at 61% in almost 200 total games.
➤Browns have come off a full bye week just twice where they play on the road after that bye under Kevin Stefanski, they are 0-2 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 20.3 PPG. Overall, Cleveland is 1-4 ATS off a bye under Stefanski.
On any extended prep time, the Browns are 5-11 ATS under Stefanski, including 0-3 ATS since the calendar turned to 2024 – their opponent has scored 107 pts in the 3 games with Cleveland on extended prep.
The 5-11 ATS mark on extended prep since 2020 is the worst of 71 head coaches across the NFL.
➤Justin Fields has played well off a bye recently, going 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS in 2022 and 2023 for the Bears. In his only recent start on extended pre, he lost 27-21 to the Dolphins earlier this season.
In Fields’ career, he is 21-29-1 ATS, but when he faces a top-notch pass rush, one who has a defensive sack% of 4% or higher, Fields is 6-5 ATS, including 4-2 ATS at 4.5% or higher. Browns are at 4.9% right now.
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➤Entering Week 10, here are the updated odds to win NFL MVP, their odds last week and the odds they entered the season with:
Josh Allen: +160 (+350 last week, +600 open)
Patrick Mahomes: +350 (+140 last week, +650 open)
Drake Maye: +450 (+500 last week, +5000 open)
Maye’s MVP odds were as high as 100-1 entering Weeks 4 and 5 before cratering over the last few weeks. In the last 15 years, we’ve only seen two players win MVP at longer than 50-1 odds entering the season: Matt Ryan in 2016 (75-1) and Cam Newton in 2015 (52-1).
Maye has been so consistent in his early career. He has played 22 games, he has an equal number of TD passes as INT or better in 21 of those 22 games.
➤The Bucs are the lone team this week off a bye, while facing a team not off the bye themselves.
Since 2003, teams off a bye, with their opponent not are winning 56% of games, this season those teams are 6-0 SU, with none of the six games finishing within one possession.
➤The Patriots have started fast lately. Under Drake Maye, they have won 6 straight 1st halves on the moneyline, including 9-1 1H ML in their last 10 games dating back to last season.
Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Maye is 8-2 1H ATS, with New England’s only 1H ML loss to the Steelers back in September.
➤Patriots are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS this season. They lead the AFC East, they are 2-0 in division and 4-0 SU on the road. Maybe the best note for NE is the fact they also have the easiest remaining SOS by win pct, with their opponents holding a 35.8% win pct. Only one other team is even below 40% for their opp. WP, and that is the Saints at 38.2%.
➤Baker Mayfield has started six career games off a bye, he is 4-2 SU in those six games, 4-0 SU as a favorite and 0-2 SU as an underdog.
Baker is 11-14 ATS on any extended rest, but 6-4 ATS with the Bucs and 5-10 ATS with all other teams.
➤The Patriots have won 6 consecutive games outright and are now underdogs against the Bucs this week. Since 2004 in Week 10 or later, teams on a 6+ game SU win streak who are listed as underdogs are 27-42-1 ATS (39%).
If you include teams on a 4+ game SU win streak, they are 78-101-5 ATS, still 43.6% ATS.
➤When the Patriots lead by a TD or more (6+ pts) at any point in the game, they are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS this season, 1 of 4 undefeated teams SU this season with the 49ers, Bills and their opponent this week, the Bucs.
When a Vrabel-led team leads by 6 pts or more at any point, they are 56-17 SU and 50-22-1 ATS in those games. On the other side, the Bucs have won 11 consecutive games outright when they’ve led by 6+ pts.
➤Baker and the Bucs bounced back in the 2nd half vs. Saints before their bye after falling apart vs. the Lions the week before that. Since Baker arrived in 2023, the Bucs are 29-16 against the second-half spread, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind only the Bills.
When the Bucs lose the 2H ATS in their previous game, Tampa Bay under Baker is 14-2 2H ATS in their next game. Hold that one in your back pocket.
➤ The Patriots' rush defense has been absurd this year. Here is how their lead backs have performed vs. NE. They are the first team since the 1970 merger not to allow an RB to eclipse 50 rush yds in the first eight games. Now through nine games.
Bijan: 12 for 46
Judkins: 9 for 19
Spears: 5 for 22
Kamara: 10 for 31
Cook: 15 for 49
Hubbard: 10 for 49
Warren: 18 for 47
Achane: 11 for 30
Jeanty 19-48
Total: 109 for 331 (3.0)
➤Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 10 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. Every other team in the NFL has at least 3 covers as a favorite in this span (2nd-fewest, Giants).
Longest SU Losing Streak as Favorites – Since the 1970 Merger
2021-25 Panthers, 10
1979-81 Seahawks, 8
2015-17 Bears, 7
2015-16 Falcons, 7
1973-75 Giants, 7
• Since 2020, Carolina is 3-13 ATS as favorites. They’ve covered against Davis Mills, Zach Wilson and Dwayne Haskins in those three wins.
• Carolina's last cover as a favorite and last game above a 4-pt favorite: 9/23/21 at HOU (w/ Sam Darnold)
• If you also look at the preseason, they are 0-5 ATS as favs last 3 years — last cover coming in 2022 and between preseason, regular and post, they are 1-10 ATS as favorites since 2022 and 5-18 ATS since 2020.
• This will be Bryce Young’s 2nd start as a favorite, he closed -2.5 vs. Cowboys last year and lost 30-14.
➤A pretty remarkable stat. The Panthers are 5-4 SU this season, having been an underdog in all nine games entering this week. They are just the 2nd team since the 1970 merger to have a SU record above .500 and be an underdog in their first nine games of the season – the other was the 2001 Browns.
The 2001 Browns were also 5-4 SU. They were also favored by between 5-6 pts in their 10th game at home vs. a division opponent – they won 18-0. After that win, Cleveland finished 1-5 SU/ATS that season.
➤The Saints’ offense barely saw the field in Week 9, holding the ball for just 16:07 and running only 40 plays — an average of 4.4 per drive. It was the lowest time of possession by any team since the 2011 Cardinals with John Skelton and ranks as the 13th-lowest mark in NFL history.
Teams coming off a game with 40 offensive plays or fewer have gone just 4-11 straight up since 2014, including a brutal 1-10 record as underdogs.
➤Saints have lost eight consecutive games against the spread when they are listed as an underdog of 14 pts or less. Both their covers as dogs came in games they closed +14.5 in both matchups.
➤Since Week 5, Taysom Hill has been the only Saints player to record a carry inside the five-yard line. Over that same span, New Orleans has just four total carries inside the ten ��� two from Hill and two from Alvin Kamara.
➤Panthers and Vikings won last week as underdogs of over a TD (+7.5 or more). Since 2017, those teams are just 37-49-3 ATS (43%) in their next game.
➤Saints have been terrible in the first quarter this season. In 9 games, they are 1-8 SU over the full game and 1-8 against the 1st quarter spread, too. Saints have been outscored 16-75 in nine 1Q so far this year.
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➤The Texans red zone offense has been abysmal this season. In 22 total trips inside the red zone this season for Houston, they have just 8 touchdowns, for a 36.4%.
Lowest Red Zone Pct Last Decade (Since 2016)
32.4% – Jets, 2023
35% – Steelers, 2019
35.2% – Jets, 2016
36.4% – Texans, 2025
39.6% – Broncos, 2017
Teams with a RZ pct of 40% or less on the season, coming off an 0-3 or worse RZ performance in a loss are just 32-52 SU (38%) since division realignment in 2002.
➤Texans enter this game on a 4-game ATS losing streak against the Jaguars – in their franchise history, which dates back to 2002, Houston had never lost 4 consecutive games ATS vs. Jacksonville.
Jacksonville has covered 3 straight on the road in Houston – four would be a franchise record for them.
➤Houston loves to start fast. Since 2021, Texans are 52-28 against the first half spread, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind the Lions. Houston is 5-3 1H ATS this year and 19-8 1H ATS over the last two seasons.
Houston is 31-13 1H ATS in that span with CJ Stroud, but also Davis Mills is 16-10 1H ATS himself, covering 4 of his last 5 first halves.
➤AFC South is a very different division this year. In 2024, underdogs in the AFC South went 11-1 ATS, and between 2019 and 2024, they went 45-27 ATS (63%), best of any division.
In 2025, dogs in AFC South games are 0-4 ATS, the only winless division in the NFL entering Week 10.
➤Texans entered last week 7-0 against the 4th quarter spread this season, the only undefeated team in that category left this season.
Houston then came out and lost 11-0 in the 4th quarter, also losing the game. They lost it to a Denver team who is now 7-2 4Q ATS, too. This week, Texans face a Jaguars team who is 2-6 4Q ATS after the tight win last week.
Last season, the Texans were 8-11 ATS in the 4Q and 6-13 2H ATS – Houston is 5-3 2H ATS so far this year.
➤Jaguars are coming off a crazy overtime game on the road in Las Vegas last week and now face the Texans on the road.
• Last decade, teams off OT where opponent isn’t, playing on normal rest or less on the road are 44-60 SU (42%) and the under is 63-39-2 (62%).
• The good thing for Jacksonville, the Raiders offense was only on the field for 60 plays. Teams in that 42% spot, when their defense is on the field 60 plays or less are 15-11 SU (58%) off OT.
➤Seahawks have dominated the Cardinals over the last few years, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since the calendar turned to 2022.
In terms of Kyler Murray, he is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in his career against the Seahawks, with his last SU win coming all the way back in 2020.
Arizona has faced the Seahawks without Kyler twice since 2019 – in 2023 with Josh Dobbs, a 20-10 loss as a 9-pt dog and in 2021 with Colt McCoy, who won in Seattle as a 5.5-pt dog.
➤Since the calendar flipped to 2021, eight teams have had to make a trip to Seattle off short rest, like the Cardinals will do off Monday Night Football in Dallas. Amazingly enough, those eight road teams are 7-1 SU and ATS against the Seahawks, with Carolina being Seattle’s only win.
Teams off an outright win as a road dog on MNF, who then go on the road on short rest the next week is actually 9-7 SU and 10-6 ATS since 2000, better than expected.
➤Seattle out east hasn’t been so bad. Since 2018, the Seahawks are 18-8-2 ATS playing in EST. Under Mike MacDonald, Seattle is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS playing on the East Coast.
This season, when Seattle returns home off an EST game, they are 2-0 SU/ATS and they are 7-4 ATS as a team since 2021.
➤Arizona entered Monday night’s matchup with Dallas facing the league’s toughest remaining strength of schedule at 57.4%, and it won’t get much easier from here. Their lighter opponents down the stretch — Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Houston — haven’t exactly been reliable either, making the road ahead no less daunting.
➤Since 2019, Cardinals are 50-59 1H ATS (46%). They are 35-53 1H ATS with Kyler Murray at QB (39.8%) and 15-6 1H ATS with all other QBs.
Against the NFC West, Kyler Murray is unfathomable 6-25 against the first half spread, including 1-15 1H ATS vs. NFC West in his last 16 starts. All other QBs are 6-2 1H ATS.
➤When teams are running hot, sometimes it helps to look the other way. Teams with a 60%+ win pct, who is off a win of more than one possession (9+ pts) and have won at least two in a row are covering just 45.5% of games since 2010. That is the Seahawks, Rams and Eagles this week.
➤Trey McBride now has 4 Rec TD in 3 career games in which Jacoby Brissett was the starting QB. He has 5 Rec TD in 39 career games with Kyler Murray as the starting QB.
➤In the Seahawks last home game on October 20th, they won and covered against the Texans. You have to go back to October 22, of 2023 to find the last time Seattle won and covered consecutive home games.
Since their last home streak, Seattle is 8-10 SU and 5-12-1 ATS at home in front of the 12th man.
➤Both the Seahawks and Cardinals are coming off night games last week – last three seasons, when both teams are coming off a night game, the over is 19-10 (66%), going over the total by 7.2 PPG.
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➤When these teams last met in Week 5, the 49ers pulled off an upset as 8.5-point underdogs against the Rams. The coaching rivalry continues to tilt Kyle Shanahan’s way — in 18 head-to-head matchups with Sean McVay, Shanahan holds an 11-7 record both straight up and ATS.
With Stafford at QB, McVay is just 3-6 SU/ATS vs. Shanahan. This will be the 5th time McVay is a road favorite vs. 49ers and Shanahan, he is 1-3 SU/ATS in those games.
When McVay is listed as a favorite against Shanahan, he is just 4-7 SU, including 1-7 SU in his last 8 games in this spot.
➤The Rams have been the best second-half team in football this season, going 7-1 ATS — the top mark in the league. It’s a sharp turnaround for a team that had finished below .500 ATS in the second half in four straight seasons entering 2025. For Matthew Stafford, it’s been even longer; he hasn’t ended a season above .500 ATS after halftime since 2017.
Stafford has 12 TD, 0 INT and a 70.1% completion pct in 2H this year. His 2H passer rating of 128.4 is 2nd-best in the NFL behind only Lamar Jackson.
➤Since Christmas of 2023, the 49ers are 1-14 against the spread after an outright win, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. In that span, they are failing to cover the spread by 7.5 PPG.
Since the start of the 2023 season, SF is 0-3 SU/ATS as an underdog off a SU win, losing by a combined score of 87-41.
➤San Francisco has struggled to reward bettors at home, going just 8-14 ATS since the start of the 2023 season. The 49ers haven’t covered back-to-back home games since September 2024, a surprising drought for a team that’s usually dominant in its own building.
➤Rams kicker Stanford Karty has had a rough year, missing eight total kicks between field goals and extra points — the most by any kicker in the NFL this season.
➤49ers are trying to keep their defense together. Three of their top 4 players in total pressures this year are injured: Bryce Huff, Mykel Williams and Nick Bosa – and that doesn’t even include Fred Warner.
The 49ers were 22nd in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, and 23rd in dropback SR in the first six weeks of the season – so far through three weeks, SF is 21st in all three categories. Holding steady. SF is now 2-2 SU without Fred Warner and 9-15 SU without Nick Bosa.
➤Since the start of last season, the 49ers are 7-19 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room, including 1-8 3Q ATS this season, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. Since the beginning of last season, the 49ers are 6-20 against the second-half spread – every other team in the NFL has at least nine 2H ATS wins in that span.
➤Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 16-12-1 SU, 21-8 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won and covered 12 in a row dating back to November 1st of 2022.
In Goff’s career, he is 24-7 ATS indoors off a SU loss and ust 9-14-1 ATS playing outdoors.
➤Not only are the Lions off a loss last week, but this is a supreme revenge spot for Dan Campbell and a team who is injured and struggling.
Last year, Lions lost outright in the playoffs as a 8.5-pt favorite to Jayden Daniels and Commanders. Now, they face Washington without Daniels.
Since 2023, Lions have played 25 games where they lost outright to that opponent in their previous matchup, Detroit is 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS in those games, including 4-0 SU/ATS in 2025 and 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS since the start of last season.
➤For just the 5th time as a head coach, Dan Quinn has to start a backup QB going forward with Jayden Daniels hurt.
Quinn entered 2025 2-0 ATS with a backup QB, both with the Falcons. But this year, he is 0-2 SU/ATS with Marcus Mariota.
When simply looking at their chances to win a game they shouldn’t, here is how both QBs for Washington have performed as underdogs over the last four seasons.
Jayden Daniels: 6-7 SU, 28.7 PPG for WAS
Marcus Mariota: 3-9 SU, 20.6 PPG for WAS/ATL
Mariota has lost 6 straight starts outright when listed as an underdog,
➤Lions had a game to forget last week. They lost SU, but Goff got sacked 5 times, they had ten penalties and the team had just 65 total rushing yards.
When the Lions have fewer than 100 rushing yards as a team under Dan Campbell, they are 12-4 SU and 14-3 ATS in their next game.
➤Marcus Mariota has struggled early in games throughout his career, going 15-28-2 in the first half ATS as an underdog — the third-worst mark among 263 quarterbacks since 2005. He’s been even worse when facing a team coming off a straight-up loss, posting a 4-11-1 first-half ATS record in that spot.
➤Vikings led the Lions 17-14 at the half last week. Detroit is now 44-18-1 (71%) against the first-half spread over the last four seasons. Detroit is 14-3 1H ATS the week after losing 1H ATS in their previous game.
➤Both the Commanders and Dolphins head to Madrid, Spain, next week to face off in the first International Game in that country.
Teams with a neutral-site game on deck are 59-37 SU (62%) over the last decade, and they also cover 56% of those games.
➤Commanders are the first NFL team since the 2020 Jaguars to lose three straight games by at least 21 points.
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➤With the Steelers, Aaron Rodgers has started two games in primetime, Pittsburgh is 0-2 SU/ATS in those matchups. Since arriving to the Jets, Rodgers is 2-5 ATS in night games he doesn’t get hurt on the first possession, including 0-3 SU/ATS as an underdog.
➤On the other side, Justin Herbert has led the Chargers to wins lately in night games. Chargers are on a 5-game ATS win streak in night games with Herbert at QB, with Justin 16-9 ATS overall at night, covering by 3.7 PPG.
Herbert on the moneyline in night games
As a favorite: 10-3 SU
As an underdog: 3-9 SU
➤Joe Alt is important to the Chargers and the pass game. Just how important is this season? When Alt starts and finishes a game, the Chargers are 4-0 SU.
When Alt plays 50 snaps or more for the Chargers, L.A. is 14-5 SU, when he either doesn’t play or plays fewer, they are 3-5 SU.
➤Jim Harbaugh has been strong on the East Coast, going 17-3 straight up following last week’s win over the Titans. But history shows a different story once the travel is over — in his last six games immediately after an East Coast trip, spanning his time with both San Francisco and the Chargers, Harbaugh’s teams are just 1-4-1 ATS.
➤No quarterback has faced less pressure this season than Aaron Rodgers, with defenders getting to him on just 25.7% of his dropbacks. Against the Colts, he was under pressure on only three pass attempts. His 32 throws from a clean pocket came out in just 2.12 seconds on average — this season, he is second only to Tua in time to throw.
The trend is clear: when Rodgers gets the ball out fast, they win. Pittsburgh is 5-0 straight up when he releases in 2.6 seconds or quicker, and 0-3 when he holds it longer.
➤Pittsburgh pulled off another outright win as a 3-point underdog against the Colts last week, and that sets up a familiar trend for Mike Tomlin. He’s now 13-6-2 ATS as an underdog following an outright win in that same role — and his teams have covered five of their last six in that spot.
➤Steelers defense was on the field for 74 plays last week against the Colts. Last 5 seasons, teams to play on the road after 74+ plays on defense are 44-58 SU (43%).
➤Mike Tomlin Road Unders.They were 83-62-1 entering 2023, but last two seasons they are 5-8, going over by 5.9 PPG with Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
➤Even after Chiefs-Bills, this may be the game of the year, joining Patriots-Bucs this week, especially given the tight lines of both games.
Since 2014, this would be just the 3rd regular season week with two matchups of 70%+ win pct teams and a spread of 3 or less in both games, joining Week 11 last year and Week 16 of 2020.
➤Eagles are underdogs this week against the Packers. Philly isn’t an underdog too often. In Jalen Hurts’ career, he is 10-8 ATS as a dog, but since the start of last season, he and the Eagles are 4-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. Oddly enough, the last NFC team the Eagles were underdogs to was the Saints and Derek Carr in Week 3 last season.
Hurts has been an underdog off a bye twice: Super Bowl last year vs. Chiefs (W, 40-22) and two years ago in Kansas City, where he beat the Chiefs 21-17.
➤Losing Tucker Kraft is a major blow for Green Bay’s offense. Before the knee injury that ended his season, he accounted for 23.6 percent of the team’s receiving yards — the highest share on the roster — and led the Packers with 11 red-zone targets.
➤Hurts and the Eagles have lost four consecutive games ATS on Monday Night Football. Overall, Hurts is just 3-6 ATS on MNF, the worst mark of any QB since he was drafted.
➤The Eagles have beaten the Packers in three consecutive games, both SU and ATS, dating back to the start of the 2021 season. Eagles haven’t won four consecutive games SU/ATS vs. Packers in franchise history.
➤Jordan Love has excelled in night games. He is 8-5-1 ATS in his fourteen starts, covering the spread by 5.1 PPG. At home in Lambeau Field, he is 4-1 SU/ATS, covering by 7.4 PPG.
In the 4p ET or window or later, Love has started ten career games at home – he is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS, with both of his losses to the Lions (7-0 SU vs. all other teams).
➤Eagles are on one of the longer bye weeks possible, playing on Monday Night Football. Since 2015, teams on 15+ days rest are 34-29-1 ATS, but when they are listed as underdogs, they are 24-13 ATS.
➤In night games, Hurts is 11-5 SU when playing at home or neutral site and just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS on the road, losing on the road to the Giants just a few weeks ago.
➤The Packers have been pretty bad from a covering perspective after being a big favorite. Under Matt LaFleur, GB is 10-15 ATS the game after being a 7+ pt favorite, including 5-10 ATS since 2021.
As a favorite of 3 pts or less, GB is 3-0 ATS this season, anything over that mark they are 0-5 ATS.
➤The Packers have made a habit of starting slow. Over their last three games, they’ve managed just 6, 7, and 6 points in the first half. Green Bay has hit its first-half team total over only twice in eight tries, sitting at 2-6 on the year.
➤Green Bay moved the ball well enough to reach the red zone five times, but finishing drives was the difference. They converted just once on those five trips last week — a costly drop from their 70% red-zone success rate coming into the game.
After the Packers convert just one red zone trip or fewer in their previous game, they are 19-7 SU and 18-9 ATS under Matt LaFleur, including 12-1 SU. ATS when that game is at home.
➤Packers are coming off one of the worst losses in franchise history.
Worst Packers losses by spread since the 1970 merger:
-13.5 vs Cardinals (2018)
-12.5 vs Panthers (2025)
-12.5 vs Colts (1997)
Since the calendar turned to 2025, the Packers have been favorites of 7 pts or more 5 times; Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in those games. The week after being a favorite of 7 pts or more, LaFleur and the Packers are just 10-15 ATS, including 1-4 ATS since start of last season.
➤LaFleur entered the year of 2025 19-11 ATS off of a SU loss, but in GB’s last three games after a loss, they are 0-2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Teams who play at home after a massive offensive game have been fade material. These are bets against teams.
Matches: NYJ, CHI
System: The perfect recipe for a bounce back.
Matches: IND, DET
System: Teams after being listed as a big underdog in their last game have been a good early bet the following week — 4-0 1H ATS this season.
Matches: NO
System: Make sure to check the betting pct — Check current lines. After a terrible game, Miami is in the right spot.
Matches: MIA
System: Focus is on divisional unders.
Matches: MIA/BUF, ARI/SEA, LAR/SF
