Welcome to our favorite NFL Week 3 predictions and best bets.
We have you covered with picks on five games against the spread, including a case for sides of Texans vs. Vikings. We're also betting three totals, with the unders in Minneapolis and Indianapolis and an over in the biggest game of the afternoon.
The biggest spread of the day is 6.5, which is how many points the Buccaneers, Browns and 49ers are laying. Tampa Bay is the most popular team for the public and sharp bettors this week, which is no surprise against the 0-2 Broncos. One of our experts is going along with that pick.
Let's get into our NFL predictions for Sunday afternoon.
NFL Week 3 Predictions, Picks, Best Bets
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Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Picks Against the Spread
Eagles vs. Saints
By Kyle Murray
This could be the ultimate overreaction line of the week.
The Saints are a team that had very low expectations coming into the season, and they've proved a lot of them wrong. It looks like New Orleans has one of the most explosive offenses in football powered by Derek Carr.
However, the Eagles are a team many picked to make it to the Super Bowl. They're 1-1 but have faced two tough opponents. It does sound like they'll be without A.J. Brown once again, but I think this is a perfect time for the Saints offense to come back down to earth. I'm not ready to say the Eagles should be underdogs in this spot after a narrow loss last Monday night that could have been avoided if Saquon Barkley made an easy catch late in the fourth quarter to walk into the end zone.
Pick: Eagles +3 (-120)
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Broncos vs. Buccaneers
By Kyle Murray
It has been a rough go so far for this Broncos team. Denver has scored just one touchdown through two games this season and is averaging just 13 points per game.
This Buccaneers team, meanwhile, has taken care of business. Tampa Bay is coming off of a big win against the Lions in Ford Field and while this might be a hangover spot, I think the Bucs are so clearly the much better team.
The Broncos should continue to struggle putting up points this week with Tampa Bay ranking inside the top 14 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, while Denver ranks in the bottom five in each of those categories.
I'm with the bets and money this week and on the Buccaneers.
Pick: Bucs -6 (-110)
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Texans vs. Vikings
By Simon Hunter
This one feels gross. I don’t understand this line at all. I don’t think the books are giving the Vikings the respect they deserve.
Houston was the all-hype team coming into the season and has taken care of business. The Texans are 2-0 while missing a cover in both games by one-half a point. Now with Joe Mixon out, I think we see even more pressure put on C.J. Stroud, who is just 3-7 against the spread as a favorite in his young career.
Stroud will face one of the three best defensive coaches in football in Vikings coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota's defense ranks fourth in EPA/play, second in quarterback pressures and first in sacks. The Vikings have allowed just one passing touchdown and have three interceptions.
Quarterbacks in their first two years in the league have faced a Brian Flores-coached Vikings defense four times. They're 1-3 straight-up. I think we'll see a ton of exotic blitz packages that throw Stroud off-balance and make his life difficult.
I make this line a pick'em now that Justin Jefferson is off the injury report, so let's bet this ugly 'dog while the books are still catching up.
Pick: Vikings +2 (-110)
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The Vikings are coming off a huge emotional victory against the 49ers and have the divisional-rival Packers on deck. While I think Minnesota is a real contender moving forward, I believe this matchup favors the Texans.
Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores is extremely aggressive, which consistently translates to his defenses being at or near the top of the NFL in blitz rate. If Brock Purdy and company can generate 8.9 yards per pass attempt against this defense, C.J. Stroud should absolutely be able to make Minnesota pay a number of times on Sunday.
Stroud is 16-of-19 passing against the blitz this season, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. These numbers line up well with what he accomplished as a rookie, throwing 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions while averaging a healthy 8.9 yards per pass when blitzed.
The Texans defense ranks first in the NFL in adjusted sack rate through two games, which measures sacks on a per-play basis and also factors in the down, distance, opponent and intentional grounding. The Texans front seven should be able to bother Sam Darnold more than the blitzing of Flores will get to Stroud.
I'd bet the Texans up to -3.
Pick: Texans -1.5 (-110)
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Ravens vs. Cowboys
By Simon Hunter
In Week 3, I prefer to back teams that are 0-2 both against the spread and straight-up. The public tends to hate those teams, but that's not the case here. It seems like everyone is back to hating the cowboys after an embarrassing loss against the Saints last week.
Usually, I’d stay away from this game, but this is a rare spot to take Lamar Jackson and the Ravens with all of the trends point to them.
In his last seven games against teams outside the NFC East, Dak Prescott is 1-6 against the spread. This is also the first time that Prescott will be a home 'dog since 2019.
Why is Baltimore favored? It's simply Jackson. He’s 20-1 straight-up against the NFC in his career. I always fade him when he’s a big favorite, but we bet Jackson when the spread is less than a field goal. Jackson is 22-7 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of three or fewer points.
Let’s try again to bet with the public and not get burnt.
Pick: Ravens -1 (-108)
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Kyle Murray's Lions vs. Cardinals Prediction
By Kyle Murray
The Lions opened at -4, and the line has dropped down to this key number of -3.
Detroit should come out hot in this game after a brutal loss to the Buccaneers. Detroit moved the ball well but just couldn't turn its success into points.
The Lions have a huge advantage up front with likely the best offensive line in the NFL, while the Cardinals' front seven is one of the worst in the league. The Lions also rank 10th in defensive DVOA, so they should also be able to at least slow down this Arizona offense that's coming off of a 41-point outburst against the Rams.
Pick: Lions -3 (+100)
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Over/Under Predictions
Vikings vs. Texans
By Kyle Murray
As has been covered above, a big story heading into this game is how the Texans, specifically C.J. Stroud, will handle what should be a blitz-heavy attack from the Vikings defense.
Overall, I really like the Houston offense, while Minnesota's attack has also been a pleasant surprise led by Sam Darnold. The defenses have shined brightest for both of these squads, though, with the Texans shutting down Caleb Williams last week and the Vikings holding the 49ers to 17 points.
Both teams rank inside the top four in defensive DVOA, and both are dealing with pretty significant injuries on offense with Houston missing Joe Mixon and Minnesota set to be without Jordan Addison again.
The signs point toward the under here, so that's what my pick is on.
Pick: Under 46 (-108)
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Bears vs. Colts
By Kyle Murray
This is a matchup of two very capable defenses facing offenses coming off of lackluster performances. The Bears struggled in primetime last week against the Texans, and Caleb Williams has a lot of growing to do.
Chicago ranks 31st in total yards, while the Colts are in the middle of the pack in 14th. Both teams are also averaging fewer than 19 points per game this season.
While I think the long-term outlooks for both teams are positive on offense, I don't think anything changes drastically this week. That means I'm on another under.
Pick: Under 44 (-112)
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Cowboys vs. Ravens
Both the Cowboys and Ravens offenses match up well here. The Ravens have the top rushing defense in the league in terms of success rate on a per-play basis, but the Cowboys have no running game to speak of. The Cowboys offense, meanwhile, will live and die with its passing attack and Baltimore has had one of the league's weakest secondaries this season, allowing a 75.8% completion percentage and 8.59 yards per attempt, both of which rank 30th in the NFL.
Even after a poor performance a week ago, Dallas has scored 30 or more points at home in eight of their last 10 games. I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from Dak Prescott's offense against a Ravens defense that has surrendered the second-most explosive gains of 20 or more yards this season. Prescott should also enjoy clean pockets often against a Ravens front that's 28th in pressure rate.
For the Ravens offense, I expect a more aggressive passing approach similar to last week against the Raiders. Lamar Jackson averaged more than 11 yards per completion and was complemented by a ground attack that averaged 5.6 yards per rush, although it ended in a surprising upset loss.
Since Thanksgiving last season, this Cowboys defense has been shredded by any team featuring a good offense. They've allowed an average of 33.1 points to the Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins, Lions and Packers.
Bet the over with confidence up to 48.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)
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