Our NFL Luck Rankings have proven to be a highly successful tool for betting NFL sides and totals.
In the three seasons since we introduced the Luck Rankings, games that met significant thresholds for sides or totals have gone 137-92-4 (59.9%) against closing lines, the hardest lines to beat!
This year, we introduced Version 3.0 of our Luck Rankings as a way to continue to improve the methodology, as well as to simplify the thresholds and give you even better luck metrics.
As part of that, we've introduced something called the "Luck Score." This single number will tell us whether a game has a significant luck factor.
If the Luck Score is 1.454 or higher, we'll consider that a luck-based side. In addition, associated with each Luck Score will be a letter grade and a Luck-Based Cover% (LBC%). Anything with a "D" and up is playable, with expected improved results as we go up the letter-grade scale (from D to A).
Unlucky teams meeting this 1.454 Luck Score and D-rated threshold or better are 150-102-7 against the closing spread over the past seven years. That equates to a 59.5% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size of more than 250 games.
In Week 6, the lone unlucky team meeting the Luck Score threshold — the Denver Broncos — covered the spread against the Eagles, moving luck-based sides to 7-3 (70%) ATS on the year. In these 10 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 6.0 points.
For Luck Totals, the criteria is as follows:
- Luck Overs: Luck Total of +1.5 or above
- Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1 or below
However, there are even stronger thresholds for Luck Totals, which we'll call "strong" Luck Overs or Unders:
- Strong Luck Overs: Luck Total of +2.0 or above
- Strong Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1.8 or below
In Week 5, there were four weak Luck Unders, which went 1-3 to the under. Thankfully, in this very piece last week I was able to pick the one under of the four to back, taking the Broncos-Eagles not only to go under the total, but to stay under some alternate lines as well.
Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 3-7 and strong Luck Totals at 2-2 on the season.
As a whole, all sides and strong total bets are 9-5 (64.3%), while all bets, including the weak totals, are 12-12 (50%).
Based on our Week 6 NFL Luck Rankings, there are three sides and four weak totals that meet the criteria.
