The Lions will be without Terrion Arnold, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, and D.J. Reed is still on IR. Basically their entire secondary is out. Run-stuffer DJ Reader is also shaping up as a game-time decision with a back issue. What does any of this have to do with Gibbs? Everything. Every rushing prop is tied directly to expected game script and time of possession, and in this case, the injuries set up a spot where Tampa Bay’s offense is likely to move the ball, which shortens Detroit’s time with it. The market seems to agree as the five most-bet props at BetMGM right now are all Baker Mayfield overs and his pass catchers. That makes sense given Detroit’s injuries, even if we don’t have official word yet on Mike Evans or Emeka Egbuka. Either way, Tampa should be able to sustain drives tonight, and that sets up fewer total plays for Detroit and likely a more neutral or trailing script than usual..which bumps up pass rate. When Detroit does have the ball, Dan Campbell has openly hinted he wants David Montgomery more involved after only six touches last week. He isn’t a coach who bullshits, so I expect the split to be more even tonight. Gibbs is still arguably a top 2-3 back in the league, but his yards after contact is down to 2.8 per attempt this season, his first year below 3.2. I do expect that to climb as the year goes on.. just probably not against a Tampa run defense allowing only 2.14 yards after contact, 2nd best in the league. When Gibbs is in the backfield, instead of tensing up, just lock in on No. 8 SirVocea Dennis pre snap. Nobody outside of Tampa fans probably knows who he is, but he’s been playing like a heat-seeking missile against the run. He’s already logged a team-leading 23 tackles in run defense with zero missed tackles, and his 17 run stops rank 2nd in the league. He does an excellent job of anticipating which gap the ball carrier may try to hit. Lavonte David (knee) is expected to suit up as well, which makes that second level even tougher to break through. The funny part is Dennis has been awful in coverage, so if Detroit wants to feature Gibbs, it probably makes more sense for them to throw to him rather than hand it off. That setup helps the under even more. So instead of dreading every Gibbs carry, just watch #8 pre-snap and root for him to meet Gibbs at the second level. Plus, we are rooting for TB to have long, scoring drives and for Monty getting more run. There are plenty of things to “root for” when it comes to this or any other under. I project this closer to 55.5 yards with around a 60% chance Gibbs stays under 60.5.