We close NFL Week 4 with our Dolphins vs. Titans picks to kick off a two-game Monday Night Football slate. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The game can be viewed live on ESPN and can be streamed on ESPN+ or YouTube TV.
The latest odds have the Dolphins as 2.5-point favorites over the Titans on the spread (Dolphins -2.5, Titans +2.5), with Miami -140 on the moneyline. The game total is just 37 points with Tua Tagovailoa out because of a concussion, but the action (83% of bets and 76% of the money) is significantly on the over. The over/under is still 37.5 at some sportsbooks.
The bets (50%) are split, but the money (69%) is on the Dolphins here, which is why the spread has risen to -2.5. Tennessee is 0-3 straight-up and against the spread this season, which means the trends will be on its side for this game.
Let's get to our Monday Night Football best bets for the first of two games tonight.
Dolphins vs. Titans Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Picks |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
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John LanFranca's Dolphins vs. Titans Pick Against the Spread
When it comes to putting points on the scoreboard, these are the two worst offenses in the NFL on a per-possession basis. While the Dolphins could possibly get an offensive boost making a change in quarterback to Tyler Huntley, it is no certainty he knows the system well enough in his short time in Miami to facilitate points against a strong defense.
While Will Levis brings a level of volatility to any game he participates in, I am siding with the much better defense in Tennessee in this spot. Miami is going to have to feature the running game no matter who is under center, and the Titans are allowing only 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs, ranking them 6th best league-wide. This is a well-rounded defense that allows only 6.0 yards per pass attempt as well, ranking them 4th-best. This is going to be another struggle for the Dolphins offensively.
The Miami defense ranks 30th in the league in DVOA, Over the last two weeks, they have allowed passers to complete 73.5% of their attempts. This is also a defense ranking 29th in missed tackle rate when defending the run.
In what may be a low-scoring slog of a matchup, it may be hard to trust either passer to make plays. However, Levis should find himself in more manageable situations, and he has the stronger defense in this game at his back.
Pick: Titans +2.5 (-105)
Charlie DiSturco's Dolphins vs. Titans Over/Under Prediction
This could be an all-timer in terms of ugliness on Monday night. The Dolphins are starting Tyler Huntley at quarterback opposite the Titans' own backup-level QB in Will Levis. Huntley is limited as a passer and hinders a Dolphins offense that relies on its explosiveness and putting stars like Tyreek Hill and De'Von Achane in open space.
I'm expecting Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel to be conservative since Huntley joined the Dolphins about one month ago and is making his first start. We should see less passing and more work in the trenches to churn the clock and sustain drives.
Also, I'm higher on the Titans defense than most, even though injuries are piling up. Most of Tennessee's ailments are in the secondary, aside from Jeffrey Simmons, so I'm not worried about it too much since I'm low on the Dolphins passing game this week.
This all comes down to Huntley under center in place of Tua Tagovailoa. Let's bet another primetime under.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-120)
De'Von Achane Player Prop
The Dolphins were destroyed by the Seahawks last week, but that's not scaring me away from De'Von Achane.
Achane is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL and is a huge part of this offense. Regardless of who's starting at quarterback for Miami, Achane will have a huge role in this passing and running game.
Achane gets a matchup vs. the Titans, who have been a middle-of-the-road run defense this season that tends to make big mistakes on offense, putting the opposition in great field position. We'll count on Will Levis to give Miami a short field that Achane will capitalize on.
I have Achane at around a 50% chance of getting a TD, making this a great bet.
Pick: De'Von Achane Anytime TD Scorer (+140)
