The final day of the WNBA regular season will have a tremendous impact on postseason seeding, and that’s definitely the case for this Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty matchup on Thursday, September 19.
So, let's dive right in and get to my Dream vs. Liberty prediction.
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty Prediction
This is a monumental game for Atlanta, against a New York squad that'll likely send out its reserves. I'm therefore taking Atlanta to cover the spread.
Liberty vs. Dream Pick: Dream -1
Dream vs. Liberty Odds
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 159 -110/-110 | -110 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 159 -110/-110 | -110 |
Atlanta Dream: Must Win Spot
Atlanta has a lot at stake. If the Dream defeat the Liberty, they secure the final playoff spot and meet New York in the first round. Should the Dream falter, it could be an excruciating end to the season — depending on how Chicago and Washington perform.
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus and Aerial Powers are unfortunately both out once again. Haley Jones holds a probable tag and should suit up, despite her calf injury. Jones doesn’t light up the box score, but can provide solid minutes off the bench.
New York Liberty: No Need For Regulars to Play
New York put together an impressive regular season. The Liberty own a 32-7 record, rank top three in both offensive and defensive rating, and are second in net effective field goal percentage. As a result, the Liberty clinched the top playoff seed and will boast home-court advantage throughout the postseason.
This matchup has no meaningful consequences for New York as it is locked into the first seed. Therefore, it’s likely that Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones and others either play limited minutes, or take the night off entirely to rest before the tournament begins Sunday.
Absences or altered minutes may radically impact game lines and props here, so treading carefully will be important.
Dream vs. Liberty: Back Atlanta
Nothing official has been released, but I’m expecting New York’s backups to play the vast majority of the minutes. It makes too much sense to give the stars and veterans a breather after a long regular season that included a global Olympics trip.
Meanwhile, Tina Charles has averaged 18.1 points per game over her past 10 games, and Jordin Canada is back in rhythm after missing the first portion of the year. With those two clicking on both ends of the court, Atlanta is more dangerous than its record suggests.
The Dream also draw plenty of free throws and reserve players tend to be undisciplined. Trips to the line would be a massive boost for Atlanta.
I foresee Atlanta winning the hustle battle because the playoffs are on the line. That translates to offensive rebounds, loose balls, transition wins and opposing turnovers. Edges in the effort and emotion battles are definitely contributing reasons behind this pick.
Finally, the Dream travel well. They are 13-6 against the spread on the road, and away teams in general are 132-99-4 against the spread this season. Perhaps online sportsbooks are overvaluing home-court advantage.
Liberty vs. Dream Pick: Dream -1
How to Watch Dream vs. Liberty
| Dream vs. Liberty | Thursday, September 19 |
| Start Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBA TV & YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Liberty vs. Dream is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET live from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Thursday. This marquee WNBA matchup between the top-seeded Liberty and their possible first-round playoff opponent, the Dream, is on NBA TV and streaming on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
