The Las Vegas Aces begin their quest for back-to-back-to-back championships with a first-round series against the Seattle Storm. It’s rare that a defending champion can fly under the radar, but that has been the case for an Aces team that sputtered a bit early in the season but has finished as one of the hottest teams in the league. For the Storm, they are returning to the postseason after a one-year hiatus as a team looking to pull off the upset.
The fourth-seeded Aces bring their high-powered offense, led by likely league MVP A’ja Wilson, into the best-of-three series and are facing a team they not only have beaten three out of four times this season, but one they cruised to a 13-point win against less than a week ago.
That home loss ended a four-game winning streak for the Storm, who earned the fifth seed and want to be the team that knocks off the champs.
But the playoffs offer a fresh slate for everyone, meaning while Vegas is favored to win the series, they’ll have to get through a team with its own star power first.
Let's dive into our series preview for this matchup before offering an Aces vs. Storm prediction and pick.
Previous Meetings
- June 7 @ Las Vegas: Storm 78, Aces 65
- Loyd (25) and Diggins-Smith (21) led the way as the Storm knocked off the defending champs. Wilson scored 29 for Vegas, but on 8-of-20 shooting, and Plum was the only other Ace to score in double figures at 18.
- June 19 @ Las Vegas: Aces 94, Storm 83
- Jackie Young led all scorers with 32 points, while Wilson added 27. Ogwumike scored 21 for Seattle, while the Storm also got 19 from Magbegor. The Aces shot 55.6% from the field, including 8-of-20 from 3. The Storm made just 4-of-16 3-point attempts.
- July 10 @ Seattle: Aces 84, Storm 79
- Wilson posted 24 points and 20 rebounds while Young scored 27. The Aces made 19-of-20 free throws and turned the ball over just nine times, which helped stave off a Storm team led by Loyd's 28 points. Magbegor grabbed 10 rebounds.
- September 17 @ Seattle: Aces 85, Storm 72
- Wilson and Plum led the way with 21 points and seven rebounds apiece, combining to make 16-of-29 shots. The Aces made 9-of-20 3s and shot 53.3% from the field. Ogwumike led the Storm with 19 points, while Diggins-Smith had 17 and Gabby Williams scored 14 for the Storm, who made 47.6% of their shots but just 2-of-9 3-point attempts.
Las Vegas Aces Betting Analysis
You cannot talk about the Aces without mentioning A’ja Wilson, who was already referenced above but is done so by her full name again here because she’s just that good. She became the first player in league history to score 1,000 points in a season and somehow was even better this season than she was in either of the other two in which she was named MVP.
Everything Vegas does runs through the star post player, who averaged 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. An incredibly difficult player to defend, Wilson will occasionally pop outside for a 3-point shot but she does the majority of her work inside and at the free-throw line, where she averaged more than seven attempts per game this season.
As great as Wilson is – and she is truly great – the Aces’ season showed she cannot do it alone. The good news for Vegas is she doesn’t have to, as guards Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young are consistent options who help to provide balance to the center Wilson’s game.
Plum saw her scoring average dip to 17.8 points per game this season, as she shot 42.3% from the field and 36.8% from 3. The former is her lowest since 2019 but she is a threat to not only pile up the points but do so in an efficient manner any given night, especially if the 3-ball is falling. In the most recent meeting with the Storm, she made 7-of-11 shots, including 5-of-7 from distance, en route to 21 points. That wasn't exactly a one-off considering in four games against Seattle, Plum made 12-of-26 3s (46%) and 46.9% of her overall attempts. She also dished out more than four assists per game.
Speaking of assists, it is actually Young who paces the Aces. She dished out 5.3 per game over the course of the season, and finished the year with totals of six, seven, and six against the Storm. The team’s third-leading scorer, she made nearly two 3s per game.
The Aces also get scoring from Tiffany Hayes (9.5), Chelsea Gray (8.6) and Alysha Clark (6.0), while Gray is also second on the team with 4.9 assists per game.
Put it all together and the Aces come into the series with the best best scoring average in the league at 86.4 points per game along with the second-best offensive rating in the W, behind only the top-seeded New York Liberty. They have the best assist-to-turnover ratio and true shooting percentage while playing at the league’s fourth-fastest pace.
Vegas’ offensive firepower will be a good match for the Storm, who come in with the fourth-best defensive rating after allowing 78.8 points per game, also fourth-best.
Seattle Storm Betting Analysis
What a difference a year makes. Around this time in 2023, the Storm were heading for the offseason having missed the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Now, they are looking to win a series, coincidentally enough, against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs in the 2022 semifinals.
Seattle has a balanced offensive approach, with five players averaging double-digit points per game. They are led by Jewell Loyd, who averaged 19.7 points per game on a career-low 36% shooting this season. Loyd also shot just over 27% on nearly six 3-point attempts per game, but made up for that inefficiency by making 88% of her nearly seven free throws per outing. Loyd has been out with a knee injury and her status for the series has not yet been determined.
Loyd's down year and subsequent injury didn’t prove to be too costly in large part because of All-Star and former Spark Nneka Ogwumike. The veteran averaged 16.7 points per game but did so while shooting 51.1% from the field and 40.5% from 3. She also grabbed 7.6 rebounds per game and picked up about two steals per contest. Her consistency has been invaluable, as Ogwumike has scored in double figures in 16 of her last 18 games, while grabbing at least four rebounds in each of her last 20.
Skylar Diggins-Smith, also in her first year with the Storm, has been key to their success with 15.1 points per game and a team-leading 6.4 assists per game.. Her scoring average is third on the team, and while it represents her lowest average since 2016, the 10th-year pro has stepped up to end the season in averaging 18.2 points in nine games since the calendar flipped to September.
Ezi Magbegor (11.7) and Gabby Williams (10.3) round out the double-digit scorers, with the former also leading the team at eight rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game.
Not the offensive juggernaut that their opponents are, the Storm averaged 83.2 points per game this season, good enough for fifth in the W. Their offensive rating is middle of the pack, though they play at the third-fastest pace. The Storm take care of the basketball, with the second-best turnover percentage in the league.
That should help them keep up with the Aces, who are in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency while giving up nearly 81 points per game.
Aces vs. Storm Series Picks
This is certainly an interesting series. The Aces will be favored to win, which makes sense, but the Storm have some playoff-tested veterans who know what to do this time of year. FanDuel gives the Aces the second-best title odds going into the playoffs at +250, while the Storm are a few spots back at +3500.
In terms of betting, the lines figure to be fairly close. An interesting area to look at would be some of the prop bets. Points for players like Loyd (if she plays), Plum and Diggins-Smith are always worth a glance, and though Wilson is listed, her odds aren’t set to pay out much.
You will also want to take a peek at rebound props for players like Magbegor and Ogwumike, along with assists for Young, Plum, Williams and Diggins-Smith.
