The WNBA Finals tips off on Thursday night as the Minnesota Lynx head to Brooklyn to face the New York Liberty. The Lynx just wrapped up a 5 game series on Tuesday night against the Connecticut Sun, while the Liberty finished their series on Sunday a few days prior.
There may be some rest vs rust factor here, but truthfully these teams have continued to play at such a high level all season – the Liberty showed their resilience under pressure and rallied to a dominate game 4 after being crushed in game 3. The Lynx were in a win or go home, win and go to the WNBA finals scenario and shot the lights out of the ball from the tip.
I waited until the market developed to write the player prop piece because we can use that as an indicator to decide on bet direction. The Liberty opened as a -5 point favorite, the total opened as high as 160.5. I was unsurprised to see Liberty action steam this to -6 or beyond, and shocked that the total dipped. These are two half court teams who run high screens and lengthy sets, so expect total possessions to drop.
With that said, check out my Lynx vs. Liberty player prop predictions below for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals.
Collier is probably my favorite player in the WNBA, so apologies to take her under, but the spot is sharp. The total is dropping, she is on 2 days rest with a cross country road trip, and she faces the combo of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones in the paint.
We saw A'ja Wilson struggle a bit, and I expect the same defensive game plan to key in on Collier. She is playing at her peak, so its selling high and taking the under. I recommend a full unit here as this is my strongest read on the card.
Pick: Napheesa Collier Under 21.5 Points (-120) — Caesars
McBride found her shot again early in Game 5, and important part of the Lynx offense. I expect her minutes to remain sky high, her defensive assignment to drop a little in this series going against the Liberty wings who are more spacers and slashes, and don't play on ball as much, and she may have more energy for offense. The volume should be there to continue to play this above +135. I recommend a half unit on this play.
Pick: Kayla McBride Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+145) — Bet365
The reason why I was surprised by the drop in the total is because both teams have bigs who can shoot from deep. The Lynx have Alana Smith who is north of 40% from 3, Jonquel Jones almost won this year's 3 point competition. These are shooters!
Jonquel will be setting plenty of high screens for Sabrina Ionescu, the question becomes is she popping to the 3pt line or down the lane – I expect a bit of both. I recommend half unit here as well.
Pick: Jonquel Jones Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+188) — FanDuel
