I'm fading the Indiana Fever in the first round of the WNBA Playoffs and so far, the sharp betting market agrees.
When the opening lines came out for the Indiana Fever to go on the road and play the Connecticut Sun, the Game 1 line was Fever +4 on the spread and +158 on the moneyline. The Fever were also +150 underdogs in the series.
Using implied probability formulas, those prices give the Fever around a 40% chance of winning the series. My first thought upon seeing those prices was that people who wanted to back the Fever should choose the Game 1 price and avoid the series.
By betting the Game 1 moneyline, you'd net a higher return and process the ticket in shorter order. You are also playing into the Fever having to win one game on the road in a series spread, so the home-court advantage the Sun maintain factors into both lines.
However, I never considered backing the Fever and was waiting for some indication that I was right to look at the Sun (no pun intended, don't look directly at the Sun). The market has started to reveal itself as a strong spot to back the Sun, as we see the prices lengthening for public backers who likely want be bet Caitlin Clark and the Fever. Fever backers would be staring into -CLV tickets as the spread is now +4.5 or +5.5, and the Game 1 and series moneylines hover around +170.
I think the best way to bet this game is to play the Game 1 Connecticut Sun spread -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM. If we understand the opening line was 4, and the majority of the market sits at 5 or 5.5, then the remaining 4.5 is likely to catch up to the consensus. If we remove our bias about how we feel about the teams, then holding a -4.5 ticket on a WNBA playoff line that closes at -5 to -5.5 is inherently +EV because 5 is a common WNBA outcome.
This just so happens to be against Clark and the Fever, but I would play a -4.5 (-110) line on every WNBA game that closed at -5 or -5.5 and would be quite profitable as a result. Don't let fandom or bias stop you from ignoring value.
If you do want to back Clark, let's look to her props …
Over the final few weeks of the season, the Fever offense has been on an absolute tear. Indiana's game totals have been frequently priced in the mid 170s, with two recent games against the Wings priced in the mid 180s, both of which went over!
Those are crazy high totals for a 40-minute WNBA game, and emphasize how fast the Fever offense has been playing. Throughout this run, Clark's combined Points + Rebounds + Assist prop has been at 36.5, and the vig would make bettors pay a hefty price for that over!
Now, going against the Connectcut Sun, a defense-first and half-court team, in a playoff atmosphere, the game total is reduced to 163 and Clark's props adequately reflect a drop in pace. For this game, Clark's points prop is 19.5, and the combined PRA is 33.5.
I think they are all fairly priced.
I like backing star player props early in playoff rounds because their player minutes and usage actually increase, despite the game totals decreasing. I expect Clark to play more minutes than she has over the past few weeks, as long as she avoids foul trouble, and for her stats to be pretty consistent with what they've been, despite the game total dropping.
Clark can still easily exceed 34 PRA and score more than 20 points, but my favorite line is Clark Over 5.5 Rebounds (+110 at Caesars). I think Clark will look to grab rebounds to initiate the fast break. At plus money, with a line that doesn't require high efficiency or scoring, just minutes and volume, I'm happy to back Clark to go Over 5.5 rebounds.
Game 1 Picks: Sun -4.5 (-110) and Clark Over 5.5 Rebounds (+110). Note: I'd put more on the spread than the prop.
