The 2024 WNBA Playoffs are officially underway!
Sunday features a four-game slate in which fans will get to watch Game 1 of every series. When approaching the playoff market for props, there are often inefficiencies early as game totals are slightly depressed, but minutes increase for starters.
It's tough for the books to predict how the stat sheet will change when drastic shifts in rotations and usage occur.
In Game 1s, I want to target the over of star players in games where the total has dipped, yet the price of the prop reflects the game total more than the expected usage. There are three clear spots for this, so let's get to my WNBA player prop picks and predictions for Sunday, September 22.
WNBA Playoffs: Player Prop Picks and Predictions
The first game on the slate features the Atlanta Dream playing at the Barclays Center against the New York Liberty.
This is the second consecutive matchup between these teams as they played on the final day of the regular season, when the Dream won their way into the 8th seed and secured the final playoff spot.
On Thursday, the total closed around 159. There was a lack of urgency from the Liberty and defensive pressure from the Dream, so it was an easy under to spot (and one I wrote up as a best bet here). However, the previous game has created opportunity in this game, as the total opened as low as 155.5!
Sabrina Ionescu has had a prop line of 18.5 all season long, and Liberty games were typically priced in the low 160s. Now, with the total 10 points lower, the dip is reflected in her line being 16.5 and only -106 vig on FanDuel.
I think Ionescu is likely to play heavier minutes in this game and should soar over. The depressed line is an inviting opportunity.
Dream vs. Liberty Pick: Sabrina Ionescu Over 16.5 Points (-106 at FanDuel)
I am genuinely interested in all the Caitlin Clark props as they are fairly priced. Clark's combined PRA prop has consistently been 36.5 with the vig toward the over for most of the past month — and she's hit it frequently.
In Game 1, that PRA line is 33.5, which properly factors in the dip in game total as the Fever are playing the Connecticut Sun, a slower, half-court team. When looking at the combined and isolated lines for Clark, my favorite angle is Over 5.5 rebounds at plus money.
I think she's going to play north of 32 minutes and expect her to initiate the fast break right off the rebound. She is 6-feet tall and set a WNBA rookie record for rebounds this season, which gives me even more confidence in backing hes Clark rebounds prop.
Fever vs. Sun Pick: Caitlin Clark Over 5.5 Rebounds (+110 at Caesars)
The Minnesota Lynx were one of the league's best 3-point shooting teams all season. They play five-out, meaning the players all hover around the perimeter and open up the lane. The Lynx even bring in Alanna Smith, a sixth woman off the bench, as another floor-spacing center.
Napheesa Collier can play make at the top of the key and drive and kick to reliable shooters. I expect Collier to be the focal point of Phoenix's defensive game plan and also expect Brittney Griner to slide over and play help defense.
That'll lead to opportunities for Collier to dish to her teammates and I expect to play this until it's no longer listed at plus money.
Mercury vs. Lynx Pick: Napheesa Collier Over 3.5 Assists (+122 at FanDuel)
