Arsenal vs Sevilla Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -125 |
| Sevilla Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Arsenal finally had their preferred front three in the lineup for their road match at Chelsea on Saturday and it didn't result in an improved attacking performance. The Gunners managed to score twice in the end, but they created next to nothing in the opening 70 minutes until a Robert Sanchez error opened the door for them to get back into the game.
Arsenal lost control of the group with their 2-1 defeat away to Lens in match day two, and the pressure is on them to find form again given how competitive the other three teams in the group are with one another.
Sevilla have continued to struggle in La Liga — former manager Jose Luis Mendilibar lost his job as a result — but they are a consistently difficult team to beat and Europe and have played to a draw in both of their first two CL matches.
Here is why I'm taking the underdog in Arsenal vs Sevilla.
Arsenal
Another week and another disappointing attacking showing for the Gunners leaves me wondering if Bukayo Saka is really 100% fit. Marc Cucurella did an excellent job shutting down Saka in 1-on-1 situations in Saturday's matchup, which is not something I'd normally expect to happen when Saka is fully fit.
Arsenal are now 13th in non-penalty expected goals created per 90 minutes, ninth in shots and eighth in big scoring chances created. They've been quite inefficient at turning final third possession — which they've had a ton of — into box entires and clear scoring chances.
As good as Arsenal were last season when all of their young forwards took significant leaps forward in their attacking production, there was always the chance that regression loomed for them. Thus far, that seems to be the case. Look no further than Martin Odegaard, who averaged 0.52 xG + xA per match last year and this year his assist and passing production has fallen off considerably.
He's managed just 0.08 xA per 90 in the new year. The addition of Declan Rice to the midfield has helped with their extreme game control and ball winning, but it hasn't improved their ability to get the ball into the box.
Sevilla
Sevilla's expected goals numbers allowed look really bad at the surface, but there's a big disconnect between their expected goals allowed and their other defensive numbers. For example, Sevilla are second-best in expected threat allowed, top five in final third entries allowed and second best in field tilt. I think the xGA is an outlier, and this defense is actually much better than the market is suggesting.
At their core, the DNA is still that of a solid defensive side that is comfortable grinding games to a halt, playing out passive matches and then waiting for the right moment to get Youssef En-Nesyri on the end of a cross with his elite aerial dual winning ability. Mendilibar had them pressing more than normal in the league — as is his philosophy — but they were considerably more passive in the European matches and sat a little bit deeper.
It's not all that dissimilar from how Unai Emery coached those Villarreal teams to success in Europe despite average defensive metrics in Spain because of their aggressive pressing. Sevilla were second in passes per defensive action this season, but I expect that to drop a bit now that Diego Alonso has taken over as manager in place of Mendilibar.
Arsenal vs Sevilla
Pick
Sevilla just played Real Madrid over the weekend and that game was lined at almost the exact same price as this one from a three-way moneyline perspective. Sevilla did an excellent job slowing down what had previously been an electric Real Madrid attack in that match. Real had just 1.5 xG and Sevilla blocked four of Real's six best xG attempts at the Sevilla goal.
The market was too high on Real Madrid in that match and it remains too high on the Gunners' out of form attack here. I'm not convinced that Saka is fully fit and it's a quick turnaround for the Gunners to play a second consecutive away match.
I'd bet Sevilla to grab a result here at home at -115 or better.
Pick: Sevilla +0.5 (-115 or better)
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