The Champions League is back for match day four as the group stage starts to heat up. These are the reverse fixtures of what we saw the last time in the Champions League, which makes for some very interesting betting opportunities.
Outside of the group of death that features PSG vs. AC Milan and Newcastle vs. Dortmund, there aren't too many high profile matches on the board this week, but that doesn't mean there isn't value or more importantly, drama.
Here are our Champions League best bets, featuring Lazio vs Feyenoord and Bayern Munich vs Galtasaray.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
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| Lazio Odds | +155 |
| Feyenoord Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +117 |
Lazio ran into a bunch of problems the last time out, and I'm not sure they can be immediately fixed for this match. They got completely overwhelmed by Feyenoord's high press and were turning the ball over in build up play. The problem is because of how Maurizio Sarri wants his team to play.
Slot's tactics at Feyenoord are super aggressive and were the reason why they won the match against Lazio. Out of possession, Slot implements an aggressive high press where the fullbacks will often push forward leaving Feyenoord with a back three. There are often times you will see Feyenoord pressing with a front four in their 4-2-3-1 system going man for man against a back three or a back four. The results speak for themselves and they are prefect against a slow possession build up team like Lazio. Just watch how the first goal happened.
SANTI GIMENEZ MARKS HIS #UCL DEBUT WITH A GOAL. 🇲🇽 pic.twitter.com/97efUoDpyx
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 25, 2023
In possession, Feyenoord employ a lot of the same tactics as you would see from Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton. Often times, Feyenoord like to implement a box midfield to help them play create overloads in the middle of the pitch and play through the opponent's defensive blocks that way. To do this, they use three man combinations, so whenever someone has the ball in the middle of the pitch, there are three options close by to help outnumber the opposition.
I was expecting the market to upgrade Feyenoord coming off their dominant performance, but they didn't. Feyenoord are sitting at +170 at bet365 and there is no reason why they shouldn't be a road favorite in Rome.
I project Feyenoord's draw no bet price at -119, so I love the value on their current price of +103.
Pick: Feyenoord – Draw No Bet (+103 via bet365)
| Bayern Munich Odds | -500 |
| Galatasary Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -150 / +120 |
Bayern won the reverse fixture 3-1 in Turkey, but the underlying statistics from that match tell a very different story.
Galatasaray outshot Bayern 16-3 in the first half of the match and created 2.7 expected goals in total. They came out aggressively and the match became wide open and stretched quite quickly.
You’d expect that to favor Bayern because of their superior attacking talent, but the German side struggled to generate clear shots and chances. Bayern are at their best when Harry Kane is able to come short and help in build up, and then spring the pacey wingers in behind.
Galatasaray did a solid job of breaking up Bayern’s build up through the middle of the pitch and forcing all of the attacks to come from wide areas. There’s questions about whether Galatasaray can sustain that level of pressing for a full 90 minutes, as they seemed to tire out in the final 15. But given that Galatasaray were able to out-play the second best team in Europe — by market rating — for an hour, suggests to me that they should not be a full two-goal underdog in this match.
Bayern have been dominant in Germany all season long, but they’ve had very inconsistent performances in the Champions League in all three matches. They’ve scored 9 goals from 4.9 xG, but through three matches Galatasaray have the clear best xG difference in this group. I’d bet them +2 and sprinkle +700 on the first half moneyline as well.
